External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.</li><li>We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.</li><li>Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn.We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent to be limited in FY23E but more severe in FY24-25E.Such price cuts could also make its new brand less differentiated from the NIO brand, in our view.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

<ul><li>We downgrade NIO’s rating to HOLD from Buy as heightened competition drags its sales growth more severely than expected.</li><li>NIO could face more challenges than its peers when its sales growth slows, amid its heavy investments, including battery swap, chips, mobile phones etc.</li><li>We are of the view that its decision making to cut non-core projects is too slow. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We downgrade NIO’s rating to HOLD from Buy as heightened competition drags its sales growth more severely than expected.NIO could face more challenges than its peers when its sales growth slows, amid its heavy investments, including battery swap, chips, mobile phones etc.We are of the view that its decision making to cut non-core projects is too slow. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Premiumization No Longer Stands for High Margin

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their May 2023 sales volumes on 1 Jun 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 88% YoY (ranged from -26% to +146%) and 13% MoM (ranged from -8% to 38%) in May 2023.</li><li>Li Auto’s May sales more than doubled NIO and Xpeng combined.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their May 2023 sales volumes on 1 Jun 2023.Sales volume of the nine brands combined rose 88% YoY (ranged from -26% to +146%) and 13% MoM (ranged from -8% to 38%) in May 2023.Li Auto’s May sales more than doubled NIO and Xpeng combined.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – May NEV likely to hit second highest in history

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 11% YoY in Feb 2023, 4% lower than our prior forecast.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 11% YoY last month, 13% higher than our prior projection, again largely due to inventory restocking and higher export volume.</li><li>PV exports surged 86% YoY to about 271,000 units in Feb 2023. Automakers in China added about 131,000 units of inventories into their dealers in Feb 2023 based on our calculations, which has led to 2.2 months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Mar and Apr 2023. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 11% YoY in Feb 2023, 4% lower than our prior forecast.Wholesale volume also rose 11% YoY last month, 13% higher than our prior projection, again largely due to inventory restocking and higher export volume.PV exports surged 86% YoY to about 271,000 units in Feb 2023. Automakers in China added about 131,000 units of inventories into their dealers in Feb 2023 based on our calculations, which has led to 2.2 months of inventories based on our projected retail sales volume for Mar and Apr 2023. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – A trough in the short term?

<ul><li>NIO’s 4Q22 earnings missed our prior forecast on inventory provision, R&amp;D and SG&amp;A.</li><li>We are of the view that NIO’s 1Q23E sales and margin weakness should be largely priced in.</li><li>Sales in 2H23E could be crucial as supply chain constraints should no longer be an excuse for sales miss. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO’s 4Q22 earnings missed our prior forecast on inventory provision, R&amp;D and SG&amp;A.We are of the view that NIO’s 1Q23E sales and margin weakness should be largely priced in.Sales in 2H23E could be crucial as supply chain constraints should no longer be an excuse for sales miss. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – 4Q22 miss; 5 new models in the next 5 months

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Margin dent from price cuts lingers into FY24-25

Maintain HOLD. We project NIO’s net loss in 2Q23E to be similar to 1Q23, at around RMB 4.9bn. We estimate that its recent price cuts on margin dent...

CMB International

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – Premiumization No Longer Stands for High Margin

We downgrade NIO’s rating to HOLD from Buy as heightened competition drags its sales growth more severely than expected.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – May NEV likely to hit second highest in history

Nine new-energy vehicle (NEV) brands including BYD, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Aito, Neta and Leap reported their May 2023 sales volumes on...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – A trough in the short term?

Wholesale volume also rose 11% YoY last month, 13% higher than our prior projection, again largely due to inventory restocking and higher export...

CMB International

NIO Inc. (NIO US) – 4Q22 miss; 5 new models in the next 5 months

NIO’s 4Q22 earnings missed our prior forecast on inventory provision, R&D and SG&A. We are of the view that NIO’s 1Q23E sales and margin weakness...

CMB International

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