Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The third tranche of the FFW methodology change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June.</li>
<li>One-Way flow is ~JPY 742bn and will be spread across 2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> and the largest outflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Stocks with the largest impact of inflows have outperformed stocks with the largest impact of outflows, but there has been underperformance over the last couple of weeks.</li>
</ul>


The third tranche of the FFW methodology change for the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June.
One-Way flow is ~JPY 742bn and will be spread across 2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on NTT (9432 JP) and the largest outflow on Toyota Motor (7203 JP).
Stocks with the largest impact of inflows have outperformed stocks with the largest impact of outflows, but there has been underperformance over the last couple of weeks.


TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close on 29 June

<ul>
<li>The second tranche of the FFW methodology change for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> will be implemented at the close of trading today.</li>
<li>One way flow is ~JPY 745bn and will be spread across ~2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> and the largest outflow on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Motor (7203)</a>.</li>
<li>The stocks with the largest inflows have outperformed the stocks with the largest outflows over the last month and the outperformance could continue going into the last tranche in June.</li>
</ul>


The second tranche of the FFW methodology change for the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) will be implemented at the close of trading today.
One way flow is ~JPY 745bn and will be spread across ~2170 stocks. The largest inflow will be on NTT (9432 JP) and the largest outflow on Toyota Motor (7203).
The stocks with the largest inflows have outperformed the stocks with the largest outflows over the last month and the outperformance could continue going into the last tranche in June.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. </li>
<li>A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.</li>
<li>Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.</li>
</ul>


The TSE Free Float Weight Rebalance to be executed at the close Monday (30 May) is about ¥729bn a side, so it will add ~¥1.5trln to volumes. 
A sector-neutral basket of the 98 top upweights and 98 top downweights across the 33 TOPIX sectors saw the upweights UNDER-perform the downweights by about 0.3% since the April rebalance.
Monday again sees very large buy and sell flows at the close. This is a guide to taking advantage of those flows. Sector tables and a spreadsheet is attached.


TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

<ul>
<li>Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been the poster child for "deep value" Japan traders and occasional wannabe activists. It has a huge equity portfolio which dwarfs market cap. </li>
<li>Every year, twice a year (end of May and early December) Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) releases a document for a meeting with analysts and press called Information Meeting.</li>
<li>This year's is a little different in that it proposes sales of 10% of its equity portfolio. It's "small" but worth thinking about. </li>
</ul>


Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been the poster child for "deep value" Japan traders and occasional wannabe activists. It has a huge equity portfolio which dwarfs market cap. 
Every year, twice a year (end of May and early December) Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) releases a document for a meeting with analysts and press called Information Meeting.
This year's is a little different in that it proposes sales of 10% of its equity portfolio. It's "small" but worth thinking about. 


Bank of Kyoto (8369) Surprises With a Cross-Holding Sale Plan (Albeit Small)

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-telegraph-telephone-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1" rel="noopener">NTT (9432 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ntt-data-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11232:1" rel="noopener">NTT Data (9613 JP)</a> transaction is a little complicated, but the end goal appears, like before, to push operating control below holdcos on the chain. </li>
<li>Both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> and Dye &amp; Durham tanked over the unfortunate timing of an ACCC delay and MAC disconnect - before a price recovery to close the week.</li>
<li>MCB says the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> de-merger plan is bad, and now analysts say it is "underwhelming." Duh.  But the alternative? Underwhelming too, but less independent.</li>
</ul>


The NTT (9432 JP) / NTT Data (9613 JP) transaction is a little complicated, but the end goal appears, like before, to push operating control below holdcos on the chain. 
Both Link Administration (LNK AU) and Dye &amp; Durham tanked over the unfortunate timing of an ACCC delay and MAC disconnect - before a price recovery to close the week.
MCB says the AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) de-merger plan is bad, and now analysts say it is "underwhelming." Duh.  But the alternative? Underwhelming too, but less independent.


Last Week in Event SPACE:  NTT, Link Admin, AGL, Mindtree/Larsen & Toubro, Sihuan Pharma

Japan

Nintendo Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells household leisure equipment. The Company produces home use video game hardware and software products. Nintendo markets its products throughout Japan.

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Nintendo (NTDOY US)

TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close on 29 June

The third and final tranche of the FFW methodology change for the TOPIX Index will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 June. One way flow...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX Rebalance: Flows at the Close

The second tranche of the FFW methodology change for the TOPIX Index will be implemented at the close of trading today. One way flow is ~JPY 745bn...

Brian Freitas

TOPIX May Rebalance - The BIG Flows at the Close MONDAY

The TOPIX Rebalance at end-May is upon us. ¥700+bn of buys and ¥700bn of sell flows at the close today (Friday). The big buys are NTT, Sony,...

Travis Lundy

Bank of Kyoto (8369) Surprises With a Cross-Holding Sale Plan (Albeit Small)

Bk of Kyoto holds an "Information Meeting" twice a year. May's comes two weeks after earnings. This one holds a surprise with a new plan to reduce...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT, Link Admin, AGL, Mindtree/Larsen & Toubro, Sihuan Pharma

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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