Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a> reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou's most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. </li>
<li>Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. </li>
</ul>



Nike (NKE US) reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. 

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou's most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. 
Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. 


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yue Yuen has a scalable business model with high dividend yield (6.4%). Its sales and net profit are expected to increase by 9.3% YoY and 55% YoY, respectively in 2024.</li>
<li>The company is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its subsidiary Pou Sheng.</li>
<li>Yue Yuen Industrial is one of the largest footwear and athletic shoe manufacturers in the world. Its major customers include Nike, Adidas, Puma, and Reebok.</li>
</ul>


Yue Yuen has a scalable business model with high dividend yield (6.4%). Its sales and net profit are expected to increase by 9.3% YoY and 55% YoY, respectively in 2024.
The company is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its subsidiary Pou Sheng.
Yue Yuen Industrial is one of the largest footwear and athletic shoe manufacturers in the world. Its major customers include Nike, Adidas, Puma, and Reebok.


<ul>
<li>Since my bearish insight on August 11 (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/li-ning-2331-hk-low-quality-earnings-beat" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:110159" rel="noopener">Li Ning (2331 HK):  Low Quality Earnings Beat</a>), Li Ning's share price has declined by 27% in less than 2 months.</li>
<li>Anta's share price on the other hand has been flat during the same time frame (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/anta-sports-2020-hk-most-resilient-in-industry-down-cycles" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:111097" rel="noopener">Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Most Resilient In Industry Down-Cycles</a>).</li>
<li>In this insight, we look at if there are now any positive catalysts on the name, given the steep share price decline.</li>
</ul>


Since my bearish insight on August 11 (Li Ning (2331 HK):  Low Quality Earnings Beat), Li Ning's share price has declined by 27% in less than 2 months.
Anta's share price on the other hand has been flat during the same time frame (Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Most Resilient In Industry Down-Cycles).
In this insight, we look at if there are now any positive catalysts on the name, given the steep share price decline.


Li Ning (2331 HK):  No Positive Catalysts In Sight

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a> reported a set of resilient earnings in 1H23, with net profit up 32% yoy.</li>
<li>Management reconfirmed 2023 guidance for Fila and Anta at double-digit retail sales growth, and increased 2023 guidance for other brands to 40% yoy compared to 30% before. </li>
<li>Anta’s sales growth has been the most resilient in previous industry down-turns in China.  China macro worries should not be overly read through to Anta’s future results.</li>
</ul>



Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) reported a set of resilient earnings in 1H23, with net profit up 32% yoy.
Management reconfirmed 2023 guidance for Fila and Anta at double-digit retail sales growth, and increased 2023 guidance for other brands to 40% yoy compared to 30% before. 
Anta’s sales growth has been the most resilient in previous industry down-turns in China.  China macro worries should not be overly read through to Anta’s future results.


Anta Sports (2020 HK):  Most Resilient In Industry Down-Cycles

<ul>
<li>We are negative on Feng Tay Enterprise's share price in the next 6-12 months mainly due to inventory/margin concerns at its largest customer Nike combined with unattractive valuations.</li>
<li>In the next several months, we think there is a higher probability of Feng Tay's share price underperforming versus Nike.</li>
<li>Feng Tay Enterprise is one of the largest global OEM/ODM companies that specializes the design and manufacturing of footwear. Nike is one of the largest customers of Feng Tay Enterprise. </li>
</ul>


We are negative on Feng Tay Enterprise's share price in the next 6-12 months mainly due to inventory/margin concerns at its largest customer Nike combined with unattractive valuations.
In the next several months, we think there is a higher probability of Feng Tay's share price underperforming versus Nike.
Feng Tay Enterprise is one of the largest global OEM/ODM companies that specializes the design and manufacturing of footwear. Nike is one of the largest customers of Feng Tay Enterprise. 


Feng Tay Enterprise: Risks from Higher Inventory at Nike & Unattractive Valuations

United States

NIKE, Inc. designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessory products for men, women, and children. The Company sells its products worldwide to retail stores, through its own stores, subsidiaries, and distributors.

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Nike (NKE US)

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

What the market seemed to ignore is that Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24.

Steve Zhou, CFA

Asian Dividend Gems: Yue Yuen Industrial

Yue Yuen is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its...

Douglas Kim

Li Ning (2331 HK): No Positive Catalysts In Sight

The share price of Li Ning has declined by 27% in less than 2 months, while Anta's share price has remained flat. We look at if there are any...

Steve Zhou, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Most Resilient In Industry Down-Cycles

Anta reported a set of resilient earnings in 1H23, with net profit up 32% yoy, compared to market consensus of 20-25% growth.

Steve Zhou, CFA

Feng Tay Enterprise: Risks from Higher Inventory at Nike & Unattractive Valuations

We are negative on Feng Tay Enterprise's share price in the next 6-12 months mainly due to inventory/margin concerns at its largest customer Nike...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

What the market seemed to ignore is that Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24.

Steve Zhou, CFA

Asian Dividend Gems: Yue Yuen Industrial

Yue Yuen is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its...

Douglas Kim

Li Ning (2331 HK): No Positive Catalysts In Sight

​The share price of Li Ning has declined by 27% in less than 2 months, while Anta's share price has remained flat. We look at if there are any...

Steve Zhou, CFA

Anta Sports (2020 HK): Most Resilient In Industry Down-Cycles

Anta reported a set of resilient earnings in 1H23, with net profit up 32% yoy, compared to market consensus of 20-25% growth.

Steve Zhou, CFA

Feng Tay Enterprise: Risks from Higher Inventory at Nike & Unattractive Valuations

We are negative on Feng Tay Enterprise's share price in the next 6-12 months mainly due to inventory/margin concerns at its largest customer Nike...

Douglas Kim

The share price of Li Ning has declined by 27% in less than 2 months, while Anta's share price has remained flat. We look at if there are any...