Fundamental Principles of the Stock Market, From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

Fundamental Principles of the Stock Market

Fundamental principles of the stock market, earnings reviews and research. My name is Giuliano Mana, I’m 23 years old. I have a B.A Degree in Finance and I’m a Master’s candidate at Brandeis IBS. I’ve been thoroughly going over huge amounts of reading material regarding the stock market and hope to transmit some insights here.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.</li>
<li>Refining thoughts and the mental mechanism I utilize to approach portfolio management should lead to success, or at least that is my hypothesis.</li>
<li>Continuous learning allows for building more solid premises. Given time, compound interest sharpens them to the point where chances of error are minimum.</li>
</ul>


The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.
Refining thoughts and the mental mechanism I utilize to approach portfolio management should lead to success, or at least that is my hypothesis.
Continuous learning allows for building more solid premises. Given time, compound interest sharpens them to the point where chances of error are minimum.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anta-sports-products-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10261:1" rel="noopener">Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)</a>, has finally filed a US IPO registration. This is positive for Anta Sports as it can realise Amer's value.</li>
<li>Reported losses at Amer have increased YoY for 9M23 due to higher finance cost. But, its gross, operating, and adjusted EBITDA margins have all recorded solid improvements. </li>
<li>Assuming Amer is listed at the sector's average FY23 P/S of 1.6x, Anta Sports may book deemed disposal gain of HK$13.5bn, or about 6.8% of its market capitalisation.</li>
</ul>


Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), has finally filed a US IPO registration. This is positive for Anta Sports as it can realise Amer's value.
Reported losses at Amer have increased YoY for 9M23 due to higher finance cost. But, its gross, operating, and adjusted EBITDA margins have all recorded solid improvements. 
Assuming Amer is listed at the sector's average FY23 P/S of 1.6x, Anta Sports may book deemed disposal gain of HK$13.5bn, or about 6.8% of its market capitalisation.


Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports' IPO

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids…</li><li>Every generation has its share of fad products, fashion statements, and hairstyles.</li><li>But what separates a fad from a sustainable trend? Understanding the difference between the two can be challenging.</li></ul>

Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids…Every generation has its share of fad products, fashion statements, and hairstyles.But what separates a fad from a sustainable trend? Understanding the difference between the two can be challenging.

Analyst

Steve Zhou, CFA

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nike-inc-cl-b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6658:1" rel="noopener">Nike (NKE US)</a> reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou's most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. </li>
<li>Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. </li>
</ul>



Nike (NKE US) reported 2QFY24 results last week with a guidance cut, as the company cut FY24 full-year sales guidance to around +1%, compared to +mid-single-digit in the previous guidance. 

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) saw its stock drop by 8% the following day, given that Nike is Shenzhou's most important customer, making up 30% of Shenzhou's sales. 
Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24. 


Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK):  Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Yue Yuen has a scalable business model with high dividend yield (6.4%). Its sales and net profit are expected to increase by 9.3% YoY and 55% YoY, respectively in 2024.</li>
<li>The company is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its subsidiary Pou Sheng.</li>
<li>Yue Yuen Industrial is one of the largest footwear and athletic shoe manufacturers in the world. Its major customers include Nike, Adidas, Puma, and Reebok.</li>
</ul>


Yue Yuen has a scalable business model with high dividend yield (6.4%). Its sales and net profit are expected to increase by 9.3% YoY and 55% YoY, respectively in 2024.
The company is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its subsidiary Pou Sheng.
Yue Yuen Industrial is one of the largest footwear and athletic shoe manufacturers in the world. Its major customers include Nike, Adidas, Puma, and Reebok.


United States

Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and markets footwear and accessories.  The Company offers footwear for men, women and children. Deckers sells its products including accessories such as handbags, headwear, and outerwear, through domestic retailers and international distributors and directly to end-user consumers, through call centers, retail concept stores and retail outlet stores.

lululemon athletica Inc. designs and retails athletic clothing.  The Company produces fitness pants, shorts, tops and jackets for yoga, dance, running, and general fitness. lululemon serves customers throughout the world.

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. designs and markets branded contemporary casual, active, rugged, and lifestyle footwear for men, women, and children.  The Company sells its products to department stores and specialty retailers.  Skechers also sells its products internationally through distributors and directly to consumers through its own retail stores.

Ralph Lauren Corporation designs, markets, and distributes men's, women's and children's apparel, accessories, fragrances, and home furnishings. The Company's products are sold under a wide range of brands. Ralph Lauren's operations include wholesale, retail, and licensing.

Crocs, Inc. designs and manufactures shoes.  The Company produces soft, lightweight, non-marking, slip- and odor-resistant shoes made of closed-cell resin material.  Crocs manufactures men's, women's, and children's shoes and markets them to retail chains.

Tapestry, Inc. designs and markets clothes and accessories. The Company offers handbags, leather goods, footwear, fragrance, jewelry, outer wear, ready-to-wear, scarves, sunwear, travel accessories, and watches. Tapestry serves customers in the United States.

VF Corporation is an international apparel company. The Company owns a broad portfolio of brands in the jeanswear, outerwear, packs, footwear, sportswear and occupational apparel categories. VF Corp's products are marketed to consumers shopping in specialty stores, upscale and traditional department stores, national chains and mass merchants.

Columbia Sportswear Company designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes active outdoor apparel.  The Company's products include outerwear, sportswear, rugged footwear, and related accessories.  Columbia's products are sold to specialty and department store retailers in the United States and other countries.

PVH Corp. designs, sources, manufactures, and markets men's, women's, and children's apparel and footwear.  The Company markets its products at a wholesale level through department store chains and directly to consumers through retail stores. PVH Corp offers attire that includes dress shirts, sportswear, neckwear, and footwear.

Levi Strauss & Co. manufactures and distributes apparels. The Company offers jeans, casual pants, tops, jackets, shirts, and other related products. Levi Strauss serves customers worldwide.

Prada S.p.A. is an Italian fashion company that designs, manufactures, promotes and sells high-end leather goods, ready-to-wear and footwear through various brands.

ANTA Sports Products Limited designs, develops, manufactures, and markets sportswear, including sports footwear and apparel for professionals and the general public.

Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd manufactures and processes textiles.  The Company produces, dyes, finishes, prints, embroiders, cuts, and sews knitwear.

Titan Co. Ltd. manufactures and retails jewelry and watches. The Company also produces perfume for men and women.

ASICS CORPORATION manufactures general sporting goods and equipment.  The Company's products, such as athletic shoes and sportswear, are distributed in the United States, Europe, Australia, and Asia.

Moncler S.p.A. is a brand with a winter heritage. Known for its outerwear, Moncler today designs and produces clothing and accessories for women, men and children, directly distributed through Moncler boutiques, its online store, department stores and multibrand stores.

Christian Dior SE manufactures luxury products such as upscale clothing, champagne and wines, cognac and spirits, luggage and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, and jewelry and watches.  The Company markets its products internationally.

Kering SA designs, manufactures and markets luxury and sport & lifestyle goods. The Company's brands include Gucci, Bottega Veneta, Alexander McQueen, Puma and Volcom. Kering operates globally and is headquartered in Paris, France.

adidas AG manufactures sports shoes and sports equipment. The Company produces products that include footwear, sports apparel, and golf clubs and balls. adidas sells its products worldwide.

Pandora A/S designs, manufactures, markets, and distributes hand finished and modern jewellery made from primarily sterling  silver, gold, precious and semiprecious stones and Murano glass. The Company offers rings, bracelets, necklaces and earings.

NIKE, Inc. designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessory products for men, women, and children. The Company sells its products worldwide to retail stores, through its own stores, subsidiaries, and distributors.

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Nike (NKE US)

2023 Shareholder Letter

The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.

From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports' IPO

Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports, files for US IPO. Despite increased losses for 9M23, Amer's margins have improved. Anta Sports could gain...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fads and Second Acts

Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids… Every generation has its share...

Investment Talk

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

What the market seemed to ignore is that Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24.

Steve Zhou, CFA

Asian Dividend Gems: Yue Yuen Industrial

Yue Yuen is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its...

Douglas Kim

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2023 Shareholder Letter

The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.

From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports' IPO

​Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports, files for US IPO. Despite increased losses for 9M23, Amer's margins have improved. Anta Sports could gain...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Fads and Second Acts

Beanie Babies, Tamagotchis, fidget spinners, heelys, silly bandz, pogs, pet rocks, mood rings, cabbage patch kids… Every generation has its share...

Investment Talk

Shenzhou Intl (2313 HK): Nike Guidance Cut Presents An Opportunity

What the market seemed to ignore is that Nike's inventory is down another 14% yoy, and down high-single-digit compared to the previous quarter 1QFY24.

Steve Zhou, CFA

Asian Dividend Gems: Yue Yuen Industrial

Yue Yuen is likely to enjoy higher sales and profits in 2024 due to improved footwear inventory destocking cycle, higher sales and profits at its...

Douglas Kim

Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports, files for US IPO. Despite increased losses for 9M23, Amer's margins have improved. Anta Sports could gain...