EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some questions on some of the detail of the likely path ahead and some of the interesting elements around this.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply lower. On the second day of trade post Brexit, Asian EM currencies like Rupiah and Rupee traded in a tight range thanks to Central bank selling, but PBoC fixed the Yuan at still a lower level of 6.6375 to USD. It was only last week that a level of RMB6.6: USD was considered a red line for PBoC by traders but is no longer the case. China is smartly…

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity is high.  An additional consideration are rising credit costs from a worsening economy. It was not a positive environment for these large, liquid banks before. It is now worse.Cash and equivalent of key large banks (US$ Bn)<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/689/original/dt1.png?1467078004" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9689"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source: SNL Financial</figcaption></figure>The most talked about event for years was when US rates would rise. HSBC latched onto this, indicating to…

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity is high.  An additional consideration are rising credit costs from a worsening economy. It was not a positive environment for these large, liquid banks before. It is now worse.Cash and equivalent of key large banks (US$ Bn)Source: SNL FinancialThe most talked about event for years was when US rates would rise. HSBC latched onto this, indicating to…

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete plan of action for an exit has shocked markets, leaving even those who avoid politics worried about the future.However, looking at the structure of western democracy a departure from the EU is very unlikely.

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside whether Banks, UK Banks or even UBS have gotten oversold and are trading buys post Brexit Vote. For my end, I am not going to trade more than 1-2% of holdings in banks. Just enough to get a feel. Not enough to do any damage. There may be some opportunities. There may be opportunities as well in names competing with WMT and in Telecoms…UK tracking device:…

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

The Path to No Brexit

In my last piece I discussed why I thought an actual Brexit was unlikely despite the result of the referendum last week. This piece answers some...

Emad Mostaque

China Spots Opportunity in Brexit Where Others See a Threat!

What comes as crisis (Brexit) to most countries has been taken up as an opportunity by the Chinese Central bank (PBoC) and as it pushes RMB sharply...

Asia Advisors

Low Rates for Longer - Asian Banks

Interest rates will remain lower, for longer. For banks with excess liquidity, this means margin pressure. We look at HSBC and STAN where liquidity...

Daniel Tabbush

Why Brexit (Probably) Won't Happen

The last few days have seen a maelstrom of opinions and recrimination after the shock referendum decision to leave the EU.The lack of a concrete...

Emad Mostaque

The Dark Side of Glocalization (Even if Investment Opportunities)

Last week in my notes I pointed to the investment world being upside down and there being too much risk to be fully invested.Let’s set aside...

Charles De Trenck