APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report, Quiddity Advisors

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

APAC Investment Strategy, Animal Spirits Report

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>Executive Summary</h2><ul>
<li>Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in the USD is temporary and a strong dollar is not dependent on Fiscal Trumponomics</li>
<li>We continue to like Japan and prefer China over India. Animal Spirits is neutral on Emerging Markets.</li>
<li>APAC financials call remains in place.</li>
<li>Macau Tourism play continues to be favored within the Chinese consumer discretionary space.</li>
<li>We continue to avoid "bond proxy" dividend…</li>
</ul>

Executive Summary
Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in the USD is temporary and a strong dollar is not dependent on Fiscal Trumponomics
We continue to like Japan and prefer China over India. Animal Spirits is neutral on Emerging Markets.
APAC financials call remains in place.
Macau Tourism play continues to be favored within the Chinese consumer discretionary space.
We continue to avoid "bond proxy" dividend…


ANIMAL SPIRITS: Reflationary Investment Thesis Intact Without Fiscal Trumponomics

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

<p>US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…</p>

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As importantly, perhaps, the 12 month moving average for the core inflation - at 2.2% - is at its highest level since the GFC. The last time the twelve month average core CPI was this high AND trending up (as opposed to being in the process of collapsing) was in mid 2006 when the upper bound of the fed fund rate was 5.25%. While the world has change since…

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<p><strong><span id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1486947779080_25429">Chartonics weekly </span></strong>Monday 13 February 2017</p><p><strong>Equity rise on track</strong></p><div id="yui_3_16_0_ym19_1_1486947779080_25393">US yields continue to represent the primary driver for the USD which has seen an initial break upward out of the DXY bull wedge but does need a good bout of momentum to muster the energy to clear the key hurdle at DXY 101.80. We will be taking a more tactical trading view until we clear this threshold. Near term, the dollar rise will stall without any upside momentum early this week and this places a bias for the USD to retreat back to…</div>

Chartonics weekly Monday 13 February 2017Equity rise on trackUS yields continue to represent the primary driver for the USD which has seen an initial break upward out of the DXY bull wedge but does need a good bout of momentum to muster the energy to clear the key hurdle at DXY 101.80. We will be taking a more tactical trading view until we clear this threshold. Near term, the dollar rise will stall without any upside momentum early this week and this places a bias for the USD to retreat back to…

Equity Rise on Track - T-Note and XLF Key Inflection Points

<p>On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…</p>

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of February, groundhog day is suppose to portend the arrival of spring but since the 1993 film of the same name has come to mean that feeling of being caught in a repeating time-loop. And so we find that in February 2017, the German Finance Minister, the Greek Prime Minister, the board of the IMF and Greece's Eurozone partners are arguing about the…

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

<p>In a surprise move, the Central bank (RBI) today maintained the policy rate at the current level of 6.25% but changed the monetary policy stance to neutral. The 6 member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was unanimous in its decision to hold rates. The consensus was again caught on the wrong foot as majority expected a rate cut. Key rationale behind the move has been the adoption of 4% inflation target for the next financial year (ending March 2018). Even as current CPI inflation at 3.4% is well…</p>

In a surprise move, the Central bank (RBI) today maintained the policy rate at the current level of 6.25% but changed the monetary policy stance to neutral. The 6 member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was unanimous in its decision to hold rates. The consensus was again caught on the wrong foot as majority expected a rate cut. Key rationale behind the move has been the adoption of 4% inflation target for the next financial year (ending March 2018). Even as current CPI inflation at 3.4% is well…

RBI Spoils the Bond Market Party - Prices Unlikely to Scale the Peaks Seen After Demonetization

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

ANIMAL SPIRITS: Reflationary Investment Thesis Intact Without Fiscal Trumponomics

Executive Summary Early focus on trade and protectionism by the Trump administration has not stemmed the reflation regime change. The setback in...

Paul M. Kitney, PhD

Money Matters: US Inflation & The Fed

US Consumer Price Inflation released today surprised to the upside. Core CPI at 2.3% is comfortably above the Fed's inflation target of 2%. As...

Stewart Paterson

Equity Rise on Track - T-Note and XLF Key Inflection Points

Chartonics weekly Monday 13 February 2017Equity rise on trackUS yields continue to represent the primary driver for the USD which has seen an...

Thomas Schroeder

Money Matters: I Mera Tis Marmotas

On my Latin key board "I Mera Tis Marmotas" is the closest I can get to the Greek for groundhog day. Traditionally celebrated at the start of...

Stewart Paterson

RBI Spoils the Bond Market Party - Prices Unlikely to Scale the Peaks Seen After Demonetization

In a surprise move, the Central bank (RBI) today maintained the policy rate at the current level of 6.25% but changed the monetary policy stance to...

Asia Advisors