Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened</li>
<li>European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.</li>
<li>I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.</li>
</ul>


The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened
European markets did well on Thursday and Friday but failed to recover as strongly as US stocks. Asia was a laggard in general.
I would have been more confident of the equity rally had the long bond yields rose on Friday, and the curve steepened.


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River Valley Asset Management

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Macroeconomics

<p>This week, as both India and Indonesia celebrate their independence day, we are stuck by how similar drivers in these economies are and despite the obvious differences, the paths being followed seem to be converging in more ways than one. India and Indonesia both experienced positive tectonic political change in their respective national elections in 2014. Actual delivery by Prime Minister Modi in India and President Joko Widodo in Indonesia has been positive, but less than the initial hyped-up investor expectations. Both are scheduled to have elections in 2019. Looking at macro-economic variables, an important topical differentiation between the two since 2014 is inflation: it eased in both countries, but Indonesia is the clear winner. Looking ahead, growth is poised to improve in both economies, but the risk of inflation appears to be greater in India. This would prompt further monetary tightening. Indonesia’s inflation is better behaved but it has tightened more than India. More tightening is likely, but mainly for defending the currency.</p>

This week, as both India and Indonesia celebrate their independence day, we are stuck by how similar drivers in these economies are and despite the obvious differences, the paths being followed seem to be converging in more ways than one. India and Indonesia both experienced positive tectonic political change in their respective national elections in 2014. Actual delivery by Prime Minister Modi in India and President Joko Widodo in Indonesia has been positive, but less than the initial hyped-up investor expectations. Both are scheduled to have elections in 2019. Looking at macro-economic variables, an important topical differentiation between the two since 2014 is inflation: it eased in both countries, but Indonesia is the clear winner. Looking ahead, growth is poised to improve in both economies, but the risk of inflation appears to be greater in India. This would prompt further monetary tightening. Indonesia’s inflation is better behaved but it has tightened more than India. More tightening is likely, but mainly for defending the currency.

Different Strokes: India Versus Indonesia

India

The NIFTY 50 index is National Stock Exchange of India's benchmark stock market index for Indian equity market. Nifty is owned and managed by India Index Services and Products (IISL), which is a wholly owned subsidiary of the NSE Strategic Investment Corporation Limited.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)

Buy at the Sound of Cannons

The US market led the global equity rally as the invasion started. The long bond yields rose, and the yield curve steepened

Untying The Gordian Knot

Different Strokes: India Versus Indonesia

This week, as both India and Indonesia celebrate their independence day, we are stuck by how similar drivers in these economies are and despite the...

River Valley Asset Management