Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS: SPX +0.1% UST Yields 4.25%(down !) on hot August CPI Print; UAW plans strike strategy as no deal yet with US Big 3 autos; China vs Apple: Confused messaging. </li>
<li>JAPAN:  NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Kishida focuses on wage hikes after cabinet reshuffle; Softbank wins on ARM - prices at $51;  Fanuc to SELL at GS.</li>
<li>JAPAN X:  Kirin (and Sapporo) Embrace AI for Demand Forecasting. We think that this trend in Japan will only increase - with positive implications for margins and profits. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS: SPX +0.1% UST Yields 4.25%(down !) on hot August CPI Print; UAW plans strike strategy as no deal yet with US Big 3 autos; China vs Apple: Confused messaging. 
JAPAN:  NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Kishida focuses on wage hikes after cabinet reshuffle; Softbank wins on ARM - prices at $51;  Fanuc to SELL at GS.
JAPAN X:  Kirin (and Sapporo) Embrace AI for Demand Forecasting. We think that this trend in Japan will only increase - with positive implications for margins and profits. 


Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print...Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin's AI to Revolutionize Production Planning

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a> has had ambitions in machine tool space. They wanted to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takisawa-machine-tool-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7344:1" rel="noopener">Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP)</a> but Takisawa wouldn't give them the time of day.</li>
<li>So Nidec announced hostile intentions and a 60-day period to negotiate. That's done, and today they announced a now-friendly deal. </li>
<li>This looks like an easy done deal. There is one major risk factor remaining, then another consideration when thinking about path. </li>
</ul>



Nidec Corp (6594 JP) has had ambitions in machine tool space. They wanted to buy Takisawa Machine Tool (6121 JP) but Takisawa wouldn't give them the time of day.
So Nidec announced hostile intentions and a 60-day period to negotiate. That's done, and today they announced a now-friendly deal. 
This looks like an easy done deal. There is one major risk factor remaining, then another consideration when thinking about path. 


Nidec (6594) Turns Vinegar to Wine as Takisawa Machine Tool (6121) Agrees To Takeover

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EV motors are out of the red, profits on appliance, commercial and industrial products are up, and the yen is much weaker than management's forecast assumes.</li>
<li>Despite economic uncertainty, achieving FY Mar-24 profit guidance should not be difficult. </li>
<li>Operating margin trends are generally positive and valuations not too high for longer-term investors. Buy into current pull-back.</li>
</ul>


EV motors are out of the red, profits on appliance, commercial and industrial products are up, and the yen is much weaker than management's forecast assumes.
Despite economic uncertainty, achieving FY Mar-24 profit guidance should not be difficult. 
Operating margin trends are generally positive and valuations not too high for longer-term investors. Buy into current pull-back.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.</li>
<li>On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.</li>
<li>Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.</li>
</ul>



Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.
On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.
Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.


<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private</li>
<li>NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. Fitch downgrade spurs risk off as S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 sold off;  US Treasuries sold off as well, but note new Treasury issuance are indeed coming 
JAPAN. NKY  Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4;  Japan had most of the selling yesterday but could see some follow-through;  EARNINGS; TDK, Sumi Elect misses; TOB: Itochu takes CTC private
NUGGET. ANA(9202) to begin offsetting GHG via the purchase of carbon credits. We estimate that if DAC  removes 10% of its emissions, 70% of OP will disappear!  Bears watching. 


Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) - Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Ohayo Japan: Hot Inflaton Print...Ignored! JAPAN X: Kirin's AI to Revolutionize Production Planning

US markets ignore August CPI print; NKY Futs -0.2% vs Cash; USDJPY 147.5; Kishida focuses on wage hikes after cabinet reshuffle; Softbank wins on...

Mark Chadwick

Nidec (6594) Turns Vinegar to Wine as Takisawa Machine Tool (6121) Agrees To Takeover

A once-hostile approach by Nidec to Takisawa Machine Tool has become friendly and we have an agreed deal. No bump. One might expect it to be a...

Travis Lundy

Nidec (6594 JP): Favorable Margin Trends

EV motors now profitable and OP margin on Appliance, Commercial & Industrial above 10%. Forex assumptions very conservative, making upward revision...

Scott Foster

Bank of Kyoto (8369) - Too Far Too Fast

Bank of Kyoto (8369) has a 50% payout but its shareholder base isn’t that supportive of activism need to monetise the value of the equity...

Travis Lundy

Ohayo Japan|Fitch Downgrade Spurs Global Risk Off; NUGGET: ANA(+JAL) - Direct Air Capture, Not Cheap

Fitch downgrade spurs risk off; NKY Futures -1.1% vs cash; USDJPY 143.4; Japan likely sees some follow-through on yesterday's sell-off; ...

Mark Chadwick

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)