Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei Index Team announced the Nikkei 225 Annual Review today, days earlier than I expected. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nidec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7245:1" rel="noopener">Nidec Corp (6594 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smc-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20866:1" rel="noopener">SMC Corp (6273 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hoya-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8990:1" rel="noopener">Hoya Corp (7741 JP)</a> are IN.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unitika-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7669:1" rel="noopener">Unitika Ltd (3103 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruha-nichiro-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20640:1" rel="noopener">Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oki-electric-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2181:1" rel="noopener">Oki Electric Industry (6703 JP)</a> are OUT. They did not go for my subjective choices to improve sector balance. Next time.</li>
<li>The inclusion/exclusion events are staggered over 3 days out of four because of the deletion and re-inclusion of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shizuoka-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4437:1" rel="noopener">Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP)</a> due to its formation of a holding company. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Index Team announced the Nikkei 225 Annual Review today, days earlier than I expected. Nidec Corp (6594 JP), SMC Corp (6273 JP), Hoya Corp (7741 JP) are IN.

Unitika Ltd (3103 JP), Maruha Nichiro (1333 JP), and Oki Electric Industry (6703 JP) are OUT. They did not go for my subjective choices to improve sector balance. Next time.
The inclusion/exclusion events are staggered over 3 days out of four because of the deletion and re-inclusion of Shizuoka Bank (8355 JP) due to its formation of a holding company. 


Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 rebalance will likely be announced this week. I continue to be slightly off-kilter, expecting Nidec, SMC, and Oriental Land to replace Unitika, Oki Electric, and Toho Zinc.</li>
<li>Others would expect Hoya to replace Maruha Nichiro instead of Oriental Land replacing Toho Zinc, but I think it Nikkei Sector balance may matter. It could go either way.</li>
<li>Tactically speaking, cumulative volumes and Real World Float tell you how you might trade this. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 rebalance will likely be announced this week. I continue to be slightly off-kilter, expecting Nidec, SMC, and Oriental Land to replace Unitika, Oki Electric, and Toho Zinc.
Others would expect Hoya to replace Maruha Nichiro instead of Oriental Land replacing Toho Zinc, but I think it Nikkei Sector balance may matter. It could go either way.
Tactically speaking, cumulative volumes and Real World Float tell you how you might trade this. 


<ul>
<li>The data is largely unchanged since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-sep-annual-review-predictions-3-in-3-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:73209" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out</a> set of predictions published 15 days ago.</li>
<li>The consultation results are out. They are as expected too. This has the hallmarks of a VERY well-signalled trade. But it's a biggie. The funding trade alone is ¥600bn.</li>
<li>Because of the data, market conditions, and the variability of choice at the edges, I believe that warrants particular strategy.</li>
</ul>


The data is largely unchanged since the Nikkei 225 Sep Annual Review Predictions - 3 In, 3 Out set of predictions published 15 days ago.
The consultation results are out. They are as expected too. This has the hallmarks of a VERY well-signalled trade. But it's a biggie. The funding trade alone is ¥600bn.
Because of the data, market conditions, and the variability of choice at the edges, I believe that warrants particular strategy.


Nikkei 225 Sep22 Annual Review; Data Final, Predictions Unch'd; Strategy Involved

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>With the review period for the September rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.</li>
<li>The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.</li>
<li>The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.</li>
</ul>


With the review period for the September rebalance of the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) complete, we take a look at the potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
The conclusions of the market consultation have been announced and that will mean we switch to a semi-annual rebalance. So we take a look at potential changes in March 2023.
The announcement of the changes for the next rebalance should be made in the first week of September and will be implemented at the close on 30 September.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nidec reported 1Q earnings with clear evidence that near-turn earnings have bottomed. Now the market can focus on what matters, E-Axles </li>
<li>The E-Axle outlook strong than ever across demand, production, and profitability  </li>
<li>We are bullish on the stock at 30x forward earnings versus the 5-year average of 55x, especially as China accelerates policies to drive EV adoption</li>
</ul>


Nidec reported 1Q earnings with clear evidence that near-turn earnings have bottomed. Now the market can focus on what matters, E-Axles 
The E-Axle outlook strong than ever across demand, production, and profitability  
We are bullish on the stock at 30x forward earnings versus the 5-year average of 55x, especially as China accelerates policies to drive EV adoption


Nidec (6594) | The Number One EV Play in Japan

Japan

NIDEC CORPORATION is the world's leading manufacturer of small precision motors mainly used in HDD and optical disk drives. The company has extended its focus to the home appliance and automotive markets. NIDEC is active in M&A and its subsidiaries include the world's leading manufacturers of LCD panel handling robots and camera shutters.

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Nidec Corp (6594 JP)

Nikkei 225 Review Results: Nidec, SMC, Hoya IN

The Nikkei 225 Annual Review announcement was released today. The top 3 names went in (top 75 rule) and the bottom 3 went out. My hopes for a...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep 2022 Review Update

The Sep 2022 Nikkei 225 review should be announced later this week. It will result in 9-14 days of ADV to buy of large caps, to be done in 13-15...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Sep22 Annual Review; Data Final, Predictions Unch'd; Strategy Involved

The Nikkei 225 Consultation Results were published last Wednesday. The data cutoff was last Friday. It's all pretty well-signalled but there are...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview: Consultation Conclusions & Potential Changes in Sep & March

The market consultation conclusion were confirmed last week. We expect 3 changes to the index in September and another 3 in March. The adds/deletes...

Brian Freitas

Nidec (6594) | The Number One EV Play in Japan

With the Q1 earnings risk now behind us, we believe it is a good time to be bullish on Nidec and think the market will refocus on the LT earnings...

Mark Chadwick

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