Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Dec 20th.We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.0bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank, Gulf Energy Development.


Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy call but revise down the fair value to Bt19.17 from Bt22.62 following the downward revisions to our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.</li><li>Our fair value is based on the earnings yield, with a required return of 8.1%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the current share price implies upside of around 39% to our fair price. </li></ul>

We maintain a Buy call but revise down the fair value to Bt19.17 from Bt22.62 following the downward revisions to our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.Our fair value is based on the earnings yield, with a required return of 8.1%.The valuation metrics suggest that the current share price implies upside of around 39% to our fair price. 

Ngern Tid Lor - Revised Down Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Weak Asset Quality

<ul><li>We maintain a Buy rating, with a 12M fair value of Bt22.62, based on a required return of 7.8%.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 44.3% to the fair value.</li><li>The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, while the tactical downside risk is still limited.</li></ul>

We maintain a Buy rating, with a 12M fair value of Bt22.62, based on a required return of 7.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 44.3% to the fair value.The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, while the tactical downside risk is still limited.

<ul><li>We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.</li><li>The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">report on June 5, 2024. </span></li><li><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">The long-term earnings prospects remain </span>strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.</li></ul>

We switch to a Buy rating, with a new fair value of Bt22.62 (vs. Outperform and a fair value of Bt21.87 previously), following the adjustments to our house view assumptions on the macroeconomic variables.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by approximately 9.4% since our last research report on June 5, 2024. The long-term earnings prospects remain strong, and the tactical downside risk is still limited.

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).</li>
<li>Initially we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-3-changes-likely-banpu-still-not-safe-from-deletion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected only three changes</a> but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-leaderboard-set50-jun-24-banpu-vs-sawad-has-to-be-monitored-closely" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revised our expectations</a> and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.</li>
<li>All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.</li>
</ul>


The June 2024 index changes for Thailand's SET 50 index were announced after market close yesterday (17th June 2024).
Initially we expected only three changes but after the index methodology was revised in May 2024, we revised our expectations and we had 4 expected ADDs/DELs.
All 4 expected ADDs/DELs turned out to correct. In this insight, we take a look at our estimation of expected flows and potential trade ideas based on the flow dynamics.


Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Thailand

Ngern Tid Lor Public Company Limited operates as a microfinance company. The Company offers auto finance and insurance products and services. Ngern Tid Lor serves customers in Thailand.

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Ngern Tid Lor (TIDLOR TB)

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Dec 20th): PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak, Kasikornbank

We analyzed SET short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in PTT, CP AXTRA NON-VOTING DR, Bangchak,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Ngern Tid Lor - Revised Down Earnings Forecasts to Reflect Weak Asset Quality

We maintain a Buy call but revise down the fair value to Bt19.17 from Bt22.62 following the downward revisions to our 2024-26E earnings forecasts.

Krungthai XSpring

Ngern Tid Lor - Slightly Upbeat 2Q24 NP

We maintain a Buy rating, with a 12M fair value of Bt22.62, based on a required return of 7.8%.The valuation metrics suggest that the share price...

Krungthai XSpring

NGERN TID LOR - 2Q24E Earnings to Have Grown YoY but Declined QoQ

The valuation metrics suggest that the share price implies potential upside of 28.5% to the fair value, while the stock price has decreased by...

Krungthai XSpring

Quiddity SET 50 Jun 24 Rebal: 4 Changes Confirmed; LONGs up 5.2% Vs SHORTs in a Month

Our sector-neutral trade ideas have generated a long-short return of 5.2% in a month which was significantly better than being LONG 4 Expected ADDs...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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