Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. </li>
<li>Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.</li>
<li>We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.</li>
</ul>


There is a long period of flat lining loans for large US banks indicative of weak demand that is persistent and risk-aversion by banks. 
Large time deposits have swelled and this should continue to 'roll through' banks' income statement with high funding cost growth.
We show about 30 of the largest banks in the US, their profile of high funding costs growth and weak interest income growth; flat loans will not help.


US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

<ul>
<li>Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data</li>
<li>Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago</li>
<li>Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure</li>
</ul>


Large US bank weekly data shows a fragile economy still with negative 1.4% C&amp;I loan growth YoY in the most recent week's data
Total loans for large US banks are up only 0.5% YoY in the most recent week which is down from 0.7% to 1.3% just 4-5 months ago
Large time deposit growth is decelerating but remains very high at 84% YoY in the most recent week's data, suggesting still core income pressure


US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>China is injecting liquidity into the markets, but ironically, with investors sick and tired of negative returns, much of this liquidity is finding its way everywhere except China.</li>
<li>The downturn in commercial real estate is becoming a global phenomenon. A growing number of companies is grappling with bad real estate loans, leading to a sharp increase in provisions.</li>
<li>The most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals yet another trend that the recession is already behind us.</li>
</ul>


China is injecting liquidity into the markets, but ironically, with investors sick and tired of negative returns, much of this liquidity is finding its way everywhere except China.
The downturn in commercial real estate is becoming a global phenomenon. A growing number of companies is grappling with bad real estate loans, leading to a sharp increase in provisions.
The most recent Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) reveals yet another trend that the recession is already behind us.


The Weekly Market Monitor – How China Is Pushing Stocks Higher Except at Home

<ul>
<li>CMA shows how the profile of net interest income can weaken considerably with rising funding costs and risk aversion</li>
<li>Criticized assets are rising substantially and even so, the bank has not taken a higher provision expense in the quarter - this can be yet to come</li>
<li>CRE loans are growing faster than other loan, at a time when <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/new-york-community-bancorp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1193:1" rel="noopener">New York Community Bank (NYCB US)</a> shows the current risks on these loans</li>
</ul>


CMA shows how the profile of net interest income can weaken considerably with rising funding costs and risk aversion
Criticized assets are rising substantially and even so, the bank has not taken a higher provision expense in the quarter - this can be yet to come
CRE loans are growing faster than other loan, at a time when New York Community Bank (NYCB US) shows the current risks on these loans


CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.</li>
<li>Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.</li>
<li>US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?</li>
</ul>


Commercial Real Estate issues, the dog that didn't bark in 2023, is back.
Unlike March 2023, this cannot be fixed by liquidity injections alone.
US employment data surprises on the upside. Further Government manipulation?


Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

United States

New York Community Bancorp, Inc. is a multi-bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offers a full range of traditional and non-traditional products and services, and originates multi-family, commercial real estate, and construction loans, primarily in the New York metropolitan area.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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New York Community Bank (NYCB US)

US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

US loans are flat for most all weeks for nearly two years, and funding costs have surged, putting net interest income under pressure, and this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

The Weekly Market Monitor – How China Is Pushing Stocks Higher Except at Home

Is this the start of another Chinese liquidity boom? Meanwhile, commercial real estate loan provisions are spreading across the globe, which is why...

Jeroen Blokland

CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

CMA is showing some worrying figures in the wake of NYCB disclosures. CMA's net interest income is in sharp contraction, CRE loans rising fast and...

Daniel Tabbush

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Flat Loans ~USD6.7 Trillion for Almost Every Week for Nearly 2 Years

US loans are flat for most all weeks for nearly two years, and funding costs have surged, putting net interest income under pressure, and this...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly C&I Loan Growth Remains Negative, Total Loan Growth Still Only Barely Positive

High frequency data shows US banks with very weak C&I loans and total loans. Large time deposit growth remains high, only adding to core income...

Daniel Tabbush

The Weekly Market Monitor – How China Is Pushing Stocks Higher Except at Home

Is this the start of another Chinese liquidity boom? Meanwhile, commercial real estate loan provisions are spreading across the globe, which is why...

Jeroen Blokland

CMA - Net Interest Income -21% with Criticized Assets +53% and CRE Loans Rising 32% YoY

CMA is showing some worrying figures in the wake of NYCB disclosures. CMA's net interest income is in sharp contraction, CRE loans rising fast and...

Daniel Tabbush

Further Cracks Appearing in the US Economy

​Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...

Rikki Malik

Commercial real estate issues resurface in 2024, posing a challenge that cannot be resolved solely through liquidity injections. US employment...