Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.</li>
<li>The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~16% and in a one-way trade of US$329m. There are 16 stocks with over US$3m to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> will be added to the index while there will be selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT)</a>.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index measures the performance of emerging markets stocks that are not state-owned enterprises.
The October rebalance will result in a one-way turnover of ~16% and in a one-way trade of US$329m. There are 16 stocks with over US$3m to trade.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) will be added to the index while there will be selling in Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) (2330 TT).


WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.</li>
<li>After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.</li>
<li>As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In our prior EM Strategy (August 7, 2023) we discussed how MSCI EM (EEM-US) was near major 1+ year resistance at $42.
After being unable to break out, EEM-US consolidation has continued, and is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023.
As long as EEM-US is above $37, we are buyers on this pullback.


MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

Oil & Natural Gas Corp / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. </li>
<li>Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).</li>
<li>Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials</li>
</ul>


MSCI EM (EEM-US) continues to show signs of bottoming as it has held above our $37-$37.50 line-in-the-sand. 
Major 1+ year resistance on the EEM-US is at $42, and a breakout would mean the bottom is in (and would be a buy signal).
Favor EM over EAFE due to 2.5-year downtrend reversal in the EAFE vs. EM ratio. Top Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors: Energy, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Financials


MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Ping An Healthcare and Technol / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in September 2023.</li>
<li>Based on the latest available data, I see two ADDs and two DELs. </li>
<li>For the September 2023 rebalance, I expect one-way capping flows to be around US$234mn.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in September 2023.
Based on the latest available data, I see two ADDs and two DELs. 
For the September 2023 rebalance, I expect one-way capping flows to be around US$234mn.


Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible

<ul>
<li>In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.</li>
<li>Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.</li>
<li>Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.</li>
</ul>


In my previous insight in Mid-March 2023, we had a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSTECH Index in June 2023.
Since then, our flow expectations have changed with changes in prices and/or float and total share counts.
Here are our latest flow expectations based on the current prices.


Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

China

New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. offers educational services. The Company offers foreign language training, test preparation courses for admissions and assessment tests in the United States, the PRC and Commonwealth countries, primary and secondary school education, and other services. New Oriental Education & Technology Group also operates software development.

TAL Education Group provides educational services. The Company offers comprehensive tutoring services to students covering core academic subjects such as mathematics, English, Chinese, physics, chemistry, political science, and history, biology. TAL Education Group serves students in China.

Fu Shou Yuan International Group, Ltd. is a death care service provider in China.  The Company operates cemeteries and funeral facilities.

China Education Group Holdings Limited offers educational services. The Company provides private universities operating services, education training services, and other services. China Education Group Holdings offers services in Hong Kong.

East Buy Holding Limited operates livestreaming platform businesses. The Company provides private label products including agricultural products, food, books, and household goods. East Buy Holding also conducts college education businesses.

Xiamen Unigroup Xue Co., Ltd. offers various educational services. The Company provides after-school tutoring and education consulting. Unigroup Xue also participates in real estate development and investment activities.

Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Company Ltd. provides decorating services for large-scale infrastructure, high-end luxury hotel and luxury residential property.

China Chunlai Education Group Co., Ltd. provides educational services. The Company offers private higher education services and other services. China Chunlai Education Group provides services in China.

China East Education Holdings Limited provides vocational training educational services. The Company offers culinary education, internet technology education, automotive education, and other services. China East Education Holdings provides services in China.

Shanghai Xin Nanyang Co., Ltd., through its subsidiaries, manufactures communication products and industrial equipment, develops cable TV network, security trading, and communication systems, provides network integration, education, and precision processing services.

Service Corporation International provides death care services worldwide.  The Company operates funeral service locations, cemeteries, and crematoria.  Service also sells prearranged funeral services in most of its service markets.

ADT Inc. provides commercial security systems and services. The Company offers home and business automation solutions which includes temperature, burglary, flood, fire and smoke, and medical alert monitoring, as well as security cameras, remote access, and wireless home security systems. ADT serves customers in the United States.

Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. provides child care and early education services as well as other services designed to help employers and families better address the challenges of work and life. The Company provides services primarily under multi-year contracts with employers who offer child care and other dependent care solutions as part of their employee benefits packages.

Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM US)

H&R Block, Inc. provides a wide range of financial products and services through its subsidiaries.  The Company provides tax services to the general public, accounting and consulting services, and consumer financial and personal productivity software.  H&R Block provides its tax services to clients in the United States and other countries.

Golden MV Holdings, Inc. engages in the development and sale of memorial lots across various parts of the Philippines. The Company develops, constructs, and operates columbarium facilities.

Graham Holdings Company is a diversified education and media company whose principal operations include educational services, newspaper print and online publishing, television broadcasting and cable television systems.

Stride, Inc. is a technology-based education company. The Company offers proprietary curriculum, software, and educational solutions created for online delivery to students in kindergarten through 12th grade and K-12.

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. provides online post secondary education services. The Company offers graduate and undergraduate degree programs in disciplines of education, business, and healthcare.

IDP Education Limited provides student placement services to enroll into universities, schools, and colleges. The Company offers student services, such as university and course guidance, visa application and scholarships assistance, and pre-departure support services. IDP Education operates worldwide.

Strategic Education, Inc. provides educational services. The College offers working adults undergraduate and graduate degree programs in business and public administration, accounting, and information technology. Strategic Education provides courses in the eastern United States.

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New Oriental Education & Techn (9901 HK)

WisdomTree Emerging Markets Ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index Rebalance: 16% Turnover, US$660m Trade

There are 157 adds/79 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Index. One-way turnover is 16% resulting in a one-way...

Brian Freitas

MSCI EM Index Approaching 10.5-Month Support; Remain Overweight India; Many EM Buys

$EEM is again approaching major 10.5-month support at $37-$37.50, which has been our important line-in-the-sand throughout 2023. As long as $EEM is...

Vermilion Research

MSCI Emerging Market Index Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE; Top EM Buys Highlighted

MSCI EM Index $EEM Testing 1+ Year Resistance; Favor EM over EAFE $EFA. Top EM Country Overweights: Taiwan, India, Greece; Attractive EM Sectors:...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible

I see East Buy (formerly Koolearn (1797 HK)) and Tongcheng Travel (780 HK) as ADDs and AAC Technologies (2018 HK) and Ping An Healthcare (1833 HK)...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Jun23 HSTECH Flow Expectations Update: SHORT AAC Vs LONG Lenovo Might Be Interesting

There seem to be 5 inflow names (including the expected ADD and 26 outflow names (including the expected DEL). At present, I estimate one-way flow...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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