Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY</a> family of indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a>, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.</li>
<li>The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.</li>
<li>There have been huge inflows into the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the NIFTY family of indices, Nikkei 225, STAR50, the KRX New Deal Index and a global index ends on 31 January.
The January rebalance of the IDX30 and LQ45 indices will be implemented at the close of trading on 31 January.
There have been huge inflows into the CSI 300 Index ETFs for another week. This will increase the impact on the index changes at the next rebalance.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

Asm International Nv / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.</li>
<li>Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure</li>
<li>We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) are resuming their uptrends following several weeks of consolidation above major base supports (classic bull market behavior). Our outlook for global equities remains bullish.
Europe's EURO STOXX 50 has held above critical support at 4400-4415, and now displays a bull flag breakout following over a month of consolidation -- add exposure
We highlight many buy opportunities within global Technology, Services, and Communications


EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

Renesas Electronics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Last November saw the clean-up trade of INCJ getting out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>. That was 180+mm shares, well over-subscribed.  </li>
<li>Today we have news Hitachi and NEC are getting out of their stakes. That's 123mm shares in an Accelerated Block Offering of about US$2bn. I expect it will go well.</li>
<li>Recent gains in semiconductor stocks globally make this larger discount attractive. I expect a little heaviness but not much. There are index repercussions for international indices.</li>
</ul>


Last November saw the clean-up trade of INCJ getting out of Renesas Electronics (6723 JP). That was 180+mm shares, well over-subscribed.  
Today we have news Hitachi and NEC are getting out of their stakes. That's 123mm shares in an Accelerated Block Offering of about US$2bn. I expect it will go well.
Recent gains in semiconductor stocks globally make this larger discount attractive. I expect a little heaviness but not much. There are index repercussions for international indices.


Renesas (6723 JP) ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade as Hitachi/NEC Exit

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hitachi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7797:1" rel="noopener">Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nec-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17084:1" rel="noopener">NEC Corp (6701 JP)</a> are looking to sell their entire stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a> dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.</li>
<li>The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX)</a> trackers in October.</li>
</ul>



Hitachi Ltd (6501 JP) and NEC Corp (6701 JP) are looking to sell their entire stake in Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) in a deal that will raise around US$2.2bn.

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP) dropped a bit in November following INCJ's stake sale but momentum has picked up again as the stock reaches for new highs.
The float increase in global indices will coincide with the offering. There will be BIG buying by TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX (TPX INDEX) trackers in October.


Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Japan

NEC Corporation manufactures and markets computers, telecommunication equipment, electronic devices, semiconductors, and software.  The Company's products include printers, modems, cellular phones, plasma display panels (PDP), network systems, memory, integrated circuits (IC), thin film transistor-liquid crystal display (TFT-LCD), and printed circuit boards (PCB). NEC operates worldwide.

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NEC Corp (6701 JP)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

Renesas (6723 JP) ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade as Hitachi/NEC Exit

Hitachi and NEC are selling their stakes in Renesas Electronics, with an expected value of $2bn, benefiting from the recent surge in semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300, CSI500, SSE50, ChiNext, KOSPI200, Renesas, IDX30/LQ45

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EURO STOXX 50, MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Buys in Technology, Services, & Comm

EURO $STOXX 50, MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; Actionable Themes: Global Technology, Services, and Communications $ASML $ASMIY...

Vermilion Research

Renesas (6723 JP) ANOTHER Clean-Up Block Trade as Hitachi/NEC Exit

​Hitachi and NEC are selling their stakes in Renesas Electronics, with an expected value of $2bn, benefiting from the recent surge in semiconductor...

Travis Lundy

Renesas Electronics (6723 JP): Passives Will Need to Buy a LOT This Year

Hitachi and NEC are looking to sell their entire stakes in Renesas at a 6-8% discount to the last close and raise around US$2.2bn. TOPIX trackers...

Brian Freitas

Hitachi and NEC are selling their stakes in Renesas Electronics, with an expected value of $2bn, benefiting from the recent surge in semiconductor...