FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

<p><em>We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.</em></p>

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst, Evidente

Sam Ferraro

Founder Evidente. Top rated quantitative analyst

Evidente

Evidente is an independent financial education firm that delivers innovative financial advice to wholesale investors, including active long only funds, hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, in Australia and globally.  Drawing on academic research in asset pricing, behavioural finance and portfolio construction, Evidente provides wholesale investors with commercial solutions to stock selection and asset allocation decisions across equities and other asset classes.

Equity Bottom-Up

iShares MSCI Australia / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett&rsquo;s Alpha.&nbsp; The authors attribute Warren Buffett&rsquo;s long track record of strong returns not to luck but to reward for leveraged exposure to safe or low beta, quality stocks that are cheap.&nbsp; I applied these principles to the ASX200 stocks and constructed long and short portfolios of around ten stocks each.</li><li>Given the passage of over six months since the initial&nbsp;report was published, this note is designed to report on the performance of the two portfolios as well as expand and update Mr Buffett&rsquo;s investment methodology as applied to the ASX200 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;The strategy has been impressive,&nbsp;with the long portfolio yielding an equal weighted return of around 3%, well above the ASX200 (-10%) and short portfolio (-20%).&nbsp; Thus the strategy has produced a long-short return of +23%.</li><li>Evidente has made a number of enhancements to the methodology, including the addition of a market sentiment measure to assist with market timing.&nbsp; The updated&nbsp;long portfolio represents a diverse mix of sectors while energy stocks&nbsp;are still&nbsp;dominate&nbsp;the short portfolio.&nbsp; Thus the key macro risk for the shorts&nbsp;is&nbsp;the prospect of renewed strength in&nbsp;global oil prices in 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li></ul>

In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett&rsquo;s Alpha.&nbsp; The authors attribute Warren Buffett&rsquo;s long track record of strong returns not to luck but to reward for leveraged exposure to safe or low beta, quality stocks that are cheap.&nbsp; I applied these principles to the ASX200 stocks and constructed long and short portfolios of around ten stocks each.Given the passage of over six months since the initial&nbsp;report was published, this note is designed to report on the performance of the two portfolios as well as expand and update Mr Buffett&rsquo;s investment methodology as applied to the ASX200 stocks.&nbsp;&nbsp;The strategy has been impressive,&nbsp;with the long portfolio yielding an equal weighted return of around 3%, well above the ASX200 (-10%) and short portfolio (-20%).&nbsp; Thus the strategy has produced a long-short return of +23%.Evidente has made a number of enhancements to the methodology, including the addition of a market sentiment measure to assist with market timing.&nbsp; The updated&nbsp;long portfolio represents a diverse mix of sectors while energy stocks&nbsp;are still&nbsp;dominate&nbsp;the short portfolio.&nbsp; Thus the key macro risk for the shorts&nbsp;is&nbsp;the prospect of renewed strength in&nbsp;global oil prices in 2016.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Lifting The Lid On Warren Buffett's Investment Secrets (Update)

Australia

National Storage REIT is a Real Estate Investment Trust.  The Trust owns self storage facilities in Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and Gold Coast in Queensland, Sydney Western Suburbs in New South Wales, Melbourne and Geelong in Victoria, Adelaide in South Australia, Perth in Western Australia and Hobart in Tasmania.

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National Storage REIT (NSR AU)

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

Lifting The Lid On Warren Buffett's Investment Secrets (Update)

In May, I published a report citing recent journal literature that sought to decompose Buffett’s Alpha. The authors attribute Warren Buffett’s...

Sam Ferraro

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