Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a>'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. </li>
<li>We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group (BHP AU)</a> has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.</li>
</ul>


As expected, S&amp;P DJI have announced that BHP Group (BHP AU)'s weight in the S&amp;P/ASX indices will be increased all at once at the close of trading on 28 January. 
We estimated passive S&amp;P/ASX trackers will need to buy over A$4bn of BHP Group (BHP AU) leading to a funding sell of that size on the other index constituents.

BHP Group (BHP AU) has risen 25% from its lows in November. We expect most UK shareholders have finished selling shares and the one-shot inclusion could take the stock higher.


BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.</li>
<li>Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.</li>
<li>Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.</li>
</ul>


Market dynamics remain healthy and we are continuing to see signs that suggest global equities are entering a new broad-based bull market.
Led by strength from the US, the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) recently broke out to new highs above the key $105.40 resistance level, a bullish sign for global equities.
Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, creating an opportunity to add to value Sectors.


MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.<ul type="disc">
<li>
Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.</li>
<li>
Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.</li>
</ul>

Market dynamics remain healthy which suggests a new broad-based bull market is not far off. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts or bullish price inflections on the broad global indexes (ACWI-US, ACWX-US, EFA-US, and EEM-US) in order to turn bullish.

Actionable Theme: Major Autos/Auto Parts. Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs -- add exposure... see pages 3 and 5-6.

Actionable Theme: Financials. There continues to be a plethora of attractive Financial stocks globally, ranging from banks and insurance to financial services -- add exposure... see pages 4 and 6-14.


Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Commonwealth Bank of Australia / Event-Driven

In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aussie-bank-buyback-season-starts-expect-a-12-15bn-and-funky-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55301" rel="noopener">Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows</a> 10 days ago I wrote that I expected <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> to announce an off-market buyback A$5.0-6.0bn when it announced earnings on 11 August.<div class="content-highlight">
11 Aug 2021: CBA releases earnings
<ul>
<li>In its Q3 update <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210512/pdf/44wdznw579z8cv.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">released</a> on 12 May, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU)</a> announced a CET1 ratio of 12.7%.</li>
<li>In April CBA issued PERL capital notes to the tune of A$1.18bn which raised Tier1 by 26bp, and sold its Comminsure business which will also raise it slightly in CY21H2. It sold its wealth management business earlier. Given earnings are expected to be robust and more writebacks from provisions made last year could be in the offing, what was an excess capital position of A$10-11.5bn at end-March could be on the order of A$12.0-13.5bn at end-June.</li>
<li>Given the change in CBA's profile from multi-strat bank to more of a deposit-taking institution, and the notion it could get the second part (A$500mm) of the $1bn capital penalty APRA applied in 2019 (following a review of its governance, culture and accountability) following remediation, there is likely to be more flexibility to lower the CET1 ratio.</li>
<li>The 12 May statement said "A strong surplus capital position creates flexibility for the board in its consideration of capital management initiatives. The timing and extent of any such initiatives is dependent upon a continued trend of domestic economic improvement, our ongoing assessment of portfolio credit quality, and regulatory guidance."
</li>
<li>CBA should be expected to be able to raise its dividend AND buy back shares. I would expect a buyback of A$5.0-6.0bn or about half the distance between its end-June CET1 and the "Unquestionably Strong" level.</li>
<li>Given CBA's franking credit position, and its history of having conducted off-market buybacks in the past, one should expect CBA's buyback to be an off-market buyback. </li>
</ul>
</div><h3></h3><h2>Today's News</h2>This morning, Commonwealth Bank of Australia released its FY2021 Full Year Earnings (<a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank-assets/investors/docs/results/fy21/cba-fy21-profit-announcement.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">statement</a>, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank-assets/investors/docs/results/fy21/cba-fy21-results-presentation.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/content/dam/commbank-assets/investors/docs/results/fy21/cba-fy21-basel-iii-pillar-3-disclosure.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">capital adequacy</a>, and there is, of course, a <a href="https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/jwtuzfqm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">webcast</a>, which goes along with the <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/investors/asx-announcements.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Annual Report</a>, <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/investors/asx-announcements.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Corporate Governance Statement</a>, and an update on the <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/investors/asx-announcements.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Prudential Inquiry Remedial Action Plan</a>).  As expected, results were good. Statutory NPAT up 19.7%yoy, mostly due to lower loan impairments. Operating profit was up 1.7%. NIM was down slightly to 2.03% due to higher quality assets and CET1 capital came in at 13.1%.And as expected, the final dividend was hiked - A$2.00/share for Record Date 18 August - and a <a href="https://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/investors/asx-announcements.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">large off-market buyback was announced</a>. <h3>A$6.0bn. </h3>Also with a Record Date of 18 August. This insight talks about how the flows, and the possibilities. It is a follow-on from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aussie-bank-buyback-season-starts-expect-a-12-15bn-and-funky-flows" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:55301" rel="noopener">Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows</a>. One should expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> to announce an off-market buyback when it reports on 19 August. There are two bits of more recent news which impact this. I had expected A$3.0bn or more. I might expect A$4.0bn but there is a wee cloud there.

In Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows 10 days ago I wrote that I expected Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) to announce an off-market buyback A$5.0-6.0bn when it announced earnings on 11 August.
11 Aug 2021: CBA releases earnings

In its Q3 update released on 12 May, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA AU) announced a CET1 ratio of 12.7%.
In April CBA issued PERL capital notes to the tune of A$1.18bn which raised Tier1 by 26bp, and sold its Comminsure business which will also raise it slightly in CY21H2. It sold its wealth management business earlier. Given earnings are expected to be robust and more writebacks from provisions made last year could be in the offing, what was an excess capital position of A$10-11.5bn at end-March could be on the order of A$12.0-13.5bn at end-June.
Given the change in CBA's profile from multi-strat bank to more of a deposit-taking institution, and the notion it could get the second part (A$500mm) of the $1bn capital penalty APRA applied in 2019 (following a review of its governance, culture and accountability) following remediation, there is likely to be more flexibility to lower the CET1 ratio.
The 12 May statement said "A strong surplus capital position creates flexibility for the board in its consideration of capital management initiatives. The timing and extent of any such initiatives is dependent upon a continued trend of domestic economic improvement, our ongoing assessment of portfolio credit quality, and regulatory guidance."

CBA should be expected to be able to raise its dividend AND buy back shares. I would expect a buyback of A$5.0-6.0bn or about half the distance between its end-June CET1 and the "Unquestionably Strong" level.
Given CBA's franking credit position, and its history of having conducted off-market buybacks in the past, one should expect CBA's buyback to be an off-market buyback. 

Today's NewsThis morning, Commonwealth Bank of Australia released its FY2021 Full Year Earnings (statement, presentation, capital adequacy, and there is, of course, a webcast, which goes along with the Annual Report, Corporate Governance Statement, and an update on the Prudential Inquiry Remedial Action Plan).  As expected, results were good. Statutory NPAT up 19.7%yoy, mostly due to lower loan impairments. Operating profit was up 1.7%. NIM was down slightly to 2.03% due to higher quality assets and CET1 capital came in at 13.1%.And as expected, the final dividend was hiked - A$2.00/share for Record Date 18 August - and a large off-market buyback was announced. A$6.0bn. Also with a Record Date of 18 August. This insight talks about how the flows, and the possibilities. It is a follow-on from Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows. One should expect Westpac Banking (WBC AU) to announce an off-market buyback when it reports on 19 August. There are two bits of more recent news which impact this. I had expected A$3.0bn or more. I might expect A$4.0bn but there is a wee cloud there.

CBA Announces a BIG Off-Market Buyback - Timing and Past Cases

<h3>The SHORT &amp; SWEET</h3><ul>
<li>Australian banks are seeing or are going to see sharp hikes in H1 dividends this year despite APRA guidance to be prudent with capital decisions. </li>
<li>APRA changed its guidance on 29 July. </li>
<li>ANZ had announced a decent-sized buyback earlier in July and NAB announced one on 30 July. </li>
<li>Others are expected to announce buy-backs in August.</li>
</ul><h3>The Longer Introduction</h3>In April 2020 when markets were crashing and there was tremendous uncertainty about what ravages covid might bring to every sector of the economy, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> slashed its dividend and launched a A$3.5bn capital raise. Other companies did the same, but the other major banks avoided a capital raise in 2020 because they had either raised equity earlier (all four majors raised equity in 2015, but <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a> also raised in Nov 2019) or they cut or eliminated an interim dividend (ANZ and CBA cut theirs, and Westpac eliminated their div for H1 2020 entirely).For NAB, the capital raise was an institutional share placement of A$3bn and a A$500mm Share Purchase Plan (SPP) targeting individual shareholders. The SPP was well-received, priced at A$14.15/share - the same price as the placement - so when books closed a month later and the market price was 10% higher, demand had been strong enough that the SPP was boosted by A$750mm to A$1.25bn. That was probably overly cautious at the time, but it was a huge gift to shareholders. A week after the SPP shares started trading on 2 June, the shares were changing hands above A$20/share. Fast forward almost a year later to the 6 May release of H1 earnings and the bank said it had too much capital with its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at 12.37-12.40%. It noted it intended to take action to lower that but stay above APRA's Unquestionably Strong benchmark of 10.5%. This came despite APRA's <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-issues-guidance-to-authorised-deposit-taking-institutions-and-insurers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guidance</a> in early April of 2021 that it expected deposit-taking institutions it expected they (and other financial institutions) "limit discretionary capital distributions in the months ahead, including deferrals or prudent reductions in dividends." The 7 April <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-04/Capital%20management.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">letter</a> (pdf) on Capital Management said,<section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/221/292/original/Screenshot+2021-07-31+at+3.03.52+PM.png?1627715057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="221292"></figure></section>Interestingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/australia-and-new-zealand-banking-group-anz" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:443:1" rel="noopener">Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU)</a> announced a A$1.5bn buyback - ~2% of market cap - on 19 July and the stock bounced $1/share to A$28/share over a few days. This was obviously discussed with APRA but ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott had said on 5 May when reporting a 126% increase in H1 profit helped by writebacks, and a jump in H1 div,  that the Australian economy was booming and said, “Australia is in really good shape in where we sit today," and he quite clearly laid out the case for a buyback then.<blockquote>
 “We have an embarrassment of riches, if you will, in terms of excess capital.”
“Clearly the only path to get to 10.8, putting aside almost unimaginable growth in our balance sheet, would be some sort of capital management activity,”
ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott (5 May 2021)
</blockquote>ANZ was first off the block.On 29 July, APRA <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/news-and-publications/apra-updates-guidance-on-capital-management-for-banks-and-insurers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">updated its guidance</a> and the <a href="https://www.apra.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-07/Letter%20to%20authorised%20deposit-taking%20institutions%20-%20Capital%20management.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">new letter</a> on capital management eliminates the strict requirement but maintains guidance on 50% dividend payout. <h3>New NAB News</h3>On Friday 30 July 2021, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a> filed an <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44yt960pv5csx8.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> with the ASX for an on-market buyback for A$2.5bn of its shares, which is about 3% of current market cap, as part of its effort to move its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio to 10.75-11.25%. Under Corporations Act 2001, a company has to announce an on-market buyback to ASIC 14 days before starting. The buyback is expected to start in mid-late August and go through a period as long as end July 2022. That ASIC <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20210730/pdf/44ytb9zm9cfdpn.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lodgment</a> was made Friday too. Because it is an on-market buy back under the limits of the 10/12 rule (&gt;10% of shares to be bought back in &lt;12 months), no further details are required to be given out.<blockquote>
The timing and actual number of shares purchased under the buy-back will depend on market conditions, the prevailing share price and other considerations....
In addition to the on-market buy-back announced today, NAB intends to purchase shares on-market to satisfy Dividend Reinvestment Plan requirements over the buy-back period...
The exact nature, amount, and timing of any further capital returns beyond the $2.5 billion on-market buy-back announced today, will be dependent on market conditions and capital outlook.
</blockquote>Despite the still strict-sounding guidance from APRA, the organisation conducted stress tests and released results last December saying even in "severe downside scenario" where growth dropped 15% and unemployment rose 13% and house prices fell 30%, the major banks would all pass the minimum capital requirement with room to spare.The fact that these two banks have announced buybacks indicates APRA is comfortable with where banks stand, suggesting that the even more capitaltastic Westpac and CBA are likely to announce buybacks next month with earnings.

The SHORT &amp; SWEET
Australian banks are seeing or are going to see sharp hikes in H1 dividends this year despite APRA guidance to be prudent with capital decisions. 
APRA changed its guidance on 29 July. 
ANZ had announced a decent-sized buyback earlier in July and NAB announced one on 30 July. 
Others are expected to announce buy-backs in August.
The Longer IntroductionIn April 2020 when markets were crashing and there was tremendous uncertainty about what ravages covid might bring to every sector of the economy, National Australia Bank (NAB AU) slashed its dividend and launched a A$3.5bn capital raise. Other companies did the same, but the other major banks avoided a capital raise in 2020 because they had either raised equity earlier (all four majors raised equity in 2015, but Westpac Banking (WBC AU) also raised in Nov 2019) or they cut or eliminated an interim dividend (ANZ and CBA cut theirs, and Westpac eliminated their div for H1 2020 entirely).For NAB, the capital raise was an institutional share placement of A$3bn and a A$500mm Share Purchase Plan (SPP) targeting individual shareholders. The SPP was well-received, priced at A$14.15/share - the same price as the placement - so when books closed a month later and the market price was 10% higher, demand had been strong enough that the SPP was boosted by A$750mm to A$1.25bn. That was probably overly cautious at the time, but it was a huge gift to shareholders. A week after the SPP shares started trading on 2 June, the shares were changing hands above A$20/share. Fast forward almost a year later to the 6 May release of H1 earnings and the bank said it had too much capital with its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at 12.37-12.40%. It noted it intended to take action to lower that but stay above APRA's Unquestionably Strong benchmark of 10.5%. This came despite APRA's guidance in early April of 2021 that it expected deposit-taking institutions it expected they (and other financial institutions) "limit discretionary capital distributions in the months ahead, including deferrals or prudent reductions in dividends." The 7 April letter (pdf) on Capital Management said,Interestingly, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) announced a A$1.5bn buyback - ~2% of market cap - on 19 July and the stock bounced $1/share to A$28/share over a few days. This was obviously discussed with APRA but ANZ CEO Shayne Elliott had said on 5 May when reporting a 126% increase in H1 profit helped by writebacks, and a jump in H1 div,  that the Australian economy was booming and said, “Australia is in really good shape in where we sit today," and he quite clearly laid out the case for a buyback then.
 “We have an embarrassment of riches, if you will, in terms of excess capital.”
“Clearly the only path to get to 10.8, putting aside almost unimaginable growth in our balance sheet, would be some sort of capital management activity,”
ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott (5 May 2021)
ANZ was first off the block.On 29 July, APRA updated its guidance and the new letter on capital management eliminates the strict requirement but maintains guidance on 50% dividend payout. New NAB NewsOn Friday 30 July 2021, National Australia Bank (NAB AU) filed an announcement with the ASX for an on-market buyback for A$2.5bn of its shares, which is about 3% of current market cap, as part of its effort to move its Common Equity Tier 1 ratio to 10.75-11.25%. Under Corporations Act 2001, a company has to announce an on-market buyback to ASIC 14 days before starting. The buyback is expected to start in mid-late August and go through a period as long as end July 2022. That ASIC lodgment was made Friday too. Because it is an on-market buy back under the limits of the 10/12 rule (&gt;10% of shares to be bought back in &lt;12 months), no further details are required to be given out.
The timing and actual number of shares purchased under the buy-back will depend on market conditions, the prevailing share price and other considerations....
In addition to the on-market buy-back announced today, NAB intends to purchase shares on-market to satisfy Dividend Reinvestment Plan requirements over the buy-back period...
The exact nature, amount, and timing of any further capital returns beyond the $2.5 billion on-market buy-back announced today, will be dependent on market conditions and capital outlook.
Despite the still strict-sounding guidance from APRA, the organisation conducted stress tests and released results last December saying even in "severe downside scenario" where growth dropped 15% and unemployment rose 13% and house prices fell 30%, the major banks would all pass the minimum capital requirement with room to spare.The fact that these two banks have announced buybacks indicates APRA is comfortable with where banks stand, suggesting that the even more capitaltastic Westpac and CBA are likely to announce buybacks next month with earnings. 

Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows

Australia

National Australia Bank Limited is an international banking group which operates in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia and the United States.  The Group offers banking services, credit and access card facilities, leasing, housing and general finance, international and investment banking, wealth and funds management, life insurance and custodian, trustee and nominee services.

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National Australia Bank (NAB AU)

BHP Unification - ASX Upweight in One Shot

The BHP upweight in the ASX indices will be done all at once at the close on 28 January. This will mean A$4bn of BHP to buy and a funding sell on...

Brian Freitas

MSCI ACWI Breaking To New Highs; Buying Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials

Global sovereign yields have moved lower in recent weeks. We expect rates to find support near current levels, and recommend adding exposure to...

Vermilion Research

Buying Global Financials & Autos/Auto Parts

Global automobile stocks display bullish price and RS inflections with many breaking out to new highs. Financials are attractive globally, ranging...

Vermilion Research

CBA Announces a BIG Off-Market Buyback - Timing and Past Cases

Commonwealth Bank of Australia today announced a BIG off-market buyback of A$6bn - at the upper end of my expected range. This deal will have super...

Travis Lundy

Aussie Bank Buyback Season Starts - Expect A$12-15bn and Funky Flows

Aussie Bank Buyback Season is starting. ANZ a week plus ago. NAB on Friday. CBA and WBC likely to return franking credits via off-market buybacks....

Travis Lundy

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