External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. </li><li>Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT jumped up by 5x/19x YoY/QoQ to Rs 595 Cr (35% EBIT margin vs. 9%/4% in Q2FY24/Q1FY25) led by a surge in Alumina prices (up 51%/18% YoY/QoQ).</li><li>The growth could have also led to higher Alumina sales in the quarter. Q1FY25 Alumina sales was impacted by logistical issues.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the Alumina and Aluminium divisions. Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT jumped up by 5x/19x YoY/QoQ to Rs 595 Cr (35% EBIT margin vs. 9%/4% in Q2FY24/Q1FY25) led by a surge in Alumina prices (up 51%/18% YoY/QoQ).The growth could have also led to higher Alumina sales in the quarter. Q1FY25 Alumina sales was impacted by logistical issues.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

National Aluminium Company Ltd - Robust Q2; Alumina Long Position to Drive Growth

<ul><li>Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.</li><li>EBITDA degrew by 16% QoQ and missed our/consensus estimate by 22%/18% respectively, despite LME Aluminium prices rising by 15% QoQ (up 11% YoY) to $2,525/t and coal prices remaining soft in the quarter.</li><li>This was due to lower revenue from the Chemical segment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.EBITDA degrew by 16% QoQ and missed our/consensus estimate by 22%/18% respectively, despite LME Aluminium prices rising by 15% QoQ (up 11% YoY) to $2,525/t and coal prices remaining soft in the quarter.This was due to lower revenue from the Chemical segment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco - Overall Miss Led by Weakness in the Chemical Segment

<ul><li>Strong Q4FY24: Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 44%/43% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,108 Cr, beating the consensus and our estimates by 13%/6%, led by decline in RM, Power &amp; Fuel, and other expenses, partially offset by higher employee costs.</li><li>Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT grew by a robust 121%/143% YoY/QoQ to Rs 529 Cr, with EBIT margins jumping to 33% from 15% in Q4FY23 and 15.4% in Q3FY24.</li><li>Revenue from the Chemicals segment stood flat YoY and increased by 12% QoQ, (7% miss vs our estimate).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong Q4FY24: Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 44%/43% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,108 Cr, beating the consensus and our estimates by 13%/6%, led by decline in RM, Power &amp; Fuel, and other expenses, partially offset by higher employee costs.Chemicals (Alumina) business’ EBIT grew by a robust 121%/143% YoY/QoQ to Rs 529 Cr, with EBIT margins jumping to 33% from 15% in Q4FY23 and 15.4% in Q3FY24.Revenue from the Chemicals segment stood flat YoY and increased by 12% QoQ, (7% miss vs our estimate).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco -Robust Q4; Beneficiary of Higher LME & Lower Power Costs

<ul><li>NALCO reported a strong set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT beating ours and consensus estimates.</li><li>Revenue at Rs 3,347 Cr grew by 2%/10% YoY/QoQ (3% beat vs. our estimate).</li><li>EBITDA stood at Rs 773 Cr (up 68%/95% YoY/QoQ) a 39% and 59% beat against our and consensus led by lower RM (down 26%/10% YoY/QoQ), power &amp; fuel (down 23%/19% YoY/QoQ) and employee expenses (down 6%/3% YoY/QoQ). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NALCO reported a strong set of numbers with Revenue/EBITDA/PAT beating ours and consensus estimates.Revenue at Rs 3,347 Cr grew by 2%/10% YoY/QoQ (3% beat vs. our estimate).EBITDA stood at Rs 773 Cr (up 68%/95% YoY/QoQ) a 39% and 59% beat against our and consensus led by lower RM (down 26%/10% YoY/QoQ), power &amp; fuel (down 23%/19% YoY/QoQ) and employee expenses (down 6%/3% YoY/QoQ). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nalco -Robust Q3FY24; Lower Input Costs Drive All Round Beat

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX</li>
<li>Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.</li>
<li>In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months</li>
</ul>


Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months


U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

India

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

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National Aluminium (NACL IN)

National Aluminium Company Ltd - Robust Q2; Alumina Long Position to Drive Growth

Overall beat: NALCO’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 291%/66% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,549 Cr, a 36% beat vs. consensus, led by strong performance at both the...

Axis Direct

Nalco - Overall Miss Led by Weakness in the Chemical Segment

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 57% YoY to Rs 934 Cr, on the lower base of Q1FY24 which was impacted by higher power and RM costs last year.

Axis Direct

Nalco -Robust Q4; Beneficiary of Higher LME & Lower Power Costs

Nalco’s consolidated EBITDA grew by 44%/43% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,108 Cr, beating the consensus and our estimates by 13%/6%, led by decline in RM, Power...

Axis Direct

Nalco -Robust Q3FY24; Lower Input Costs Drive All Round Beat

The company has declared its 2 nd interim dividend of Rs 2/share, bringing the total interim dividend to Rs 3/share for FY24.

Axis Direct

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives

U.S., Europe, and Japan Still Holding Below Resistance; Favor Defensives. Actionable Themes: Real Estate, Utilities, Telecommunications, Energy,...

Vermilion Research

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