Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Last week Monday, Tencent confirmed the early release of Dungeon and Fighter Mobile, a highly anticipated mobile adaptation of the computer game developed by Nexon.</li>
<li>The game is expected to be released in China on the 21st of May following positive test results.</li>
<li>Tencent was the 11th best performing constituent in the HSTECH index for the week (out of 30), returning 14.7%. The index ended the week up 13.4%.</li>
</ul>


Last week Monday, Tencent confirmed the early release of Dungeon and Fighter Mobile, a highly anticipated mobile adaptation of the computer game developed by Nexon.
The game is expected to be released in China on the 21st of May following positive test results.
Tencent was the 11th best performing constituent in the HSTECH index for the week (out of 30), returning 14.7%. The index ended the week up 13.4%.


NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow

<ul>
<li>The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.</li>
<li>We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.</li>
<li>In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.</li>
</ul>


The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.
We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.
In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.


NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook

<ul>
<li>Tencent is due to release FY23 results tomorrow morning after the HK close. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST.</li>
<li>The market is expecting 1.8% QoQ revenue growth, 8.6% YoY. Strong QoQ revenue growth of 10% is expected for the advertising segment.</li>
<li>QoQ revenue growth for the gaming sector is expected to decline by 4.9%. Domestic gaming revenue is expected to fall by 7.6%, international gaming revenue expected to increase by 9.6%.</li>
</ul>


Tencent is due to release FY23 results tomorrow morning after the HK close. The earnings call is scheduled for 14:00 SAST.
The market is expecting 1.8% QoQ revenue growth, 8.6% YoY. Strong QoQ revenue growth of 10% is expected for the advertising segment.
QoQ revenue growth for the gaming sector is expected to decline by 4.9%. Domestic gaming revenue is expected to fall by 7.6%, international gaming revenue expected to increase by 9.6%.


Tencent (700 HK): Gross Margins, Cost Cutting Likely to Be Focus Going into Q4 FY23 Results

<ul>
<li>JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction on Friday.</li>
<li>Turnover for the day on the JSE was R59.3bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (74%).</li>
<li>Turnover at the December rebalance was R60bn, where around half traded in the closing auction.</li>
</ul>


JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction on Friday.
Turnover for the day on the JSE was R59.3bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (74%).
Turnover at the December rebalance was R60bn, where around half traded in the closing auction.


South Africa

Naspers Limited operates in the technology industry. The Company invests in global internet companies across the world.

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Naspers (NPN SJ)

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow

Naspers outperformed Prosus last week as Tencent announced that DnF mobile would be released earlier on the 21st of May.

DMA

NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook

There has been a notable widening in the discounts of both Naspers and Prosus following Fed rhetoric. This coupled with a number of potential...

DMA

Tencent (700 HK): Gross Margins, Cost Cutting Likely to Be Focus Going into Q4 FY23 Results

A look into what is priced ahead of Tencent's FY23 results release tomorrow after the HK close. Gross margins and cost cutting are likely going to...

DMA

JSE Mar24 Rebalance: Auction Analytics

JSE indices were rebalanced in the closing auction on Friday. Turnover for the day on the JSE was R59.3bn, R44bn traded in the closing auction (74%).

DMA

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