Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/narayana-hrudayalaya-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26939:1" rel="noopener">Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN)</a> is on an expansion spree and looks to add further 1500 beds in the next four years, to its 5683 operational beds as at FY24.</li>
<li>As far as forensics are concerned, the company has shown improvement in its capital allocation, shown ramp up/turnaround in some hospitals; also impairments are done with in the past. </li>
<li>However, few concerns loom over PPE disposals and non-reconciliation with cash flows, treatment of reversal of provisions and high growth rate assumed in goodwill CGU.</li>
</ul>



Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN) is on an expansion spree and looks to add further 1500 beds in the next four years, to its 5683 operational beds as at FY24.
As far as forensics are concerned, the company has shown improvement in its capital allocation, shown ramp up/turnaround in some hospitals; also impairments are done with in the past. 
However, few concerns loom over PPE disposals and non-reconciliation with cash flows, treatment of reversal of provisions and high growth rate assumed in goodwill CGU.


Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>India has become one of the most expensive markets globally, trading at a PE of close to 28. Quality stocks now trade consistently around 50-90x PEs. </li>
<li>We have screened 80 names (market cap agnostic) that trade at PEs between 5 and 45, with an average PE of 20 and an average ROEs of 26%. </li>
<li>We treat this only as a filter and aim to do due diligence on all these stocks over the next few months. </li>
</ul>


India has become one of the most expensive markets globally, trading at a PE of close to 28. Quality stocks now trade consistently around 50-90x PEs. 
We have screened 80 names (market cap agnostic) that trade at PEs between 5 and 45, with an average PE of 20 and an average ROEs of 26%. 
We treat this only as a filter and aim to do due diligence on all these stocks over the next few months. 


The "What's Left In India" Screen: 80 Stocks with High ROEs and Relatively Lower PEs

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited / Event-Driven

Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited

<ul>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.</li>
<li>Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new additions to MidCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six months.
Momentum on the upward migrations could sustain as active managers reposition their portfolios. Some stocks will have passive flows over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With long-term structural factors supporting growth, healthcare services market is expected to have a low double-digit CAGR over the next five years.</li>
<li>Most of the leading hospitals are operating with high occupancies, which justifies their aggressive plans. Profitable revenue growth and low leverage support their expansion plans.</li>
<li>With expanding scale, the players are well positioned to report faster revenue growth and better margins in coming years than their respective historical figures.</li>
</ul>


With long-term structural factors supporting growth, healthcare services market is expected to have a low double-digit CAGR over the next five years.
Most of the leading hospitals are operating with high occupancies, which justifies their aggressive plans. Profitable revenue growth and low leverage support their expansion plans.
With expanding scale, the players are well positioned to report faster revenue growth and better margins in coming years than their respective historical figures.


Indian Hospitals on Expansion Spree; Sectoral Tailwinds and Financial Stability Provide Impetus

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aster-dm-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23662:1" rel="noopener">Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN)</a> shares took a beating as Olympus Capital offloaded ~49M shares at a price range of INR405.00–406.72 (~7% discount to the last close price).</li>
<li>GCC business separation is expected to complete in Q4FY24. Aster DM plans to consider distributing 70–80% of the upfront consideration of $903M as dividend to its shareholders.</li>
<li>Stake sale by Olympus Capital is not a warning sign for the company. Despite CGHS rate overhang, we think recent pullback in Aster DM share provides an attractive entry point.</li>
</ul>



Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN) shares took a beating as Olympus Capital offloaded ~49M shares at a price range of INR405.00–406.72 (~7% discount to the last close price).
GCC business separation is expected to complete in Q4FY24. Aster DM plans to consider distributing 70–80% of the upfront consideration of $903M as dividend to its shareholders.
Stake sale by Olympus Capital is not a warning sign for the company. Despite CGHS rate overhang, we think recent pullback in Aster DM share provides an attractive entry point.


Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN): Recent Correction Can Be a Good Entry Point

India

Narayana Hrudayalaya Limited operates a network of hospitals. The Company offers cardiac surgery, cardiology, diabetes and endocrinology, gastroenterology, general surgery, neuroscience, facial surgery, nephrology, obstetrics and gynecology, orthopedics, oncology, pediatrics, transplant, and urology services. Narayana Hrudayalaya serves patients worldwide.

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Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd (NARH IN)

Narayana Hrudayalaya: Forensic Review

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd is showing improvements in capital allocation and turnaround in few operations, but facing concerns over PPE disposals,...

Nitin Mangal

The "What's Left In India" Screen: 80 Stocks with High ROEs and Relatively Lower PEs

We compile a list of 80 Indian stocks based on two simple criteria: PE and ROE. Given the market's lofty valuations, we title it "The What's Left...

Sameer Taneja

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new adds...

Brian Freitas

Indian Hospitals on Expansion Spree; Sectoral Tailwinds and Financial Stability Provide Impetus

Leading Indian hospitals are operating with high occupancies. Most of them chalked out major expansion plans over the next three years to benefit...

Tina Banerjee

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN): Recent Correction Can Be a Good Entry Point

Aster DM shares drop after Olympus Capital sells 49M shares at a block deal. Stake sale is not a concern. The company is separating its GCC...

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Narayana Hrudayalaya: Forensic Review

​Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd is showing improvements in capital allocation and turnaround in few operations, but facing concerns over PPE disposals,...

Nitin Mangal

The "What's Left In India" Screen: 80 Stocks with High ROEs and Relatively Lower PEs

We compile a list of 80 Indian stocks based on two simple criteria: PE and ROE. Given the market's lofty valuations, we title it "The What's Left...

Sameer Taneja

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2024): Potential Changes as Momentum Recovers

We see 7 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, 17 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, 19 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap and 2 new adds...

Brian Freitas

Indian Hospitals on Expansion Spree; Sectoral Tailwinds and Financial Stability Provide Impetus

​Leading Indian hospitals are operating with high occupancies. Most of them chalked out major expansion plans over the next three years to benefit...

Tina Banerjee

Aster DM Healthcare Ltd (ASTERDM IN): Recent Correction Can Be a Good Entry Point

​Aster DM shares drop after Olympus Capital sells 49M shares at a block deal. Stake sale is not a concern. The company is separating its GCC...

Tina Banerjee

Narayana Hrudayalaya Ltd is showing improvements in capital allocation and turnaround in few operations, but facing concerns over PPE disposals,...

Leading Indian hospitals are operating with high occupancies. Most of them chalked out major expansion plans over the next three years to benefit...

Aster DM shares drop after Olympus Capital sells 49M shares at a block deal. Stake sale is not a concern. The company is separating its GCC...