'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kohnan-shoji-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5662:1" rel="noopener">Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP)</a> and image sensor testing equipment maker and erstwhile gaijin favourite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inter-action-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7578:1" rel="noopener">Inter Action (7725 JP)</a>. <span> </span></p><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/830/original/2020-10-13_06-15-09.png?1602537360" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164830"></figure></section><section class="figure"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/164/831/original/2020-10-13_06-17-29.png?1602537468" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="164831"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics</div></section><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS </strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>Results continue to improve, but Revisions are net negative.</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>35 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 51% Positive / 17% Neutral / 31% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +1.6 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -3.8% Quarter YoY / -2.2% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -2.2ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 20%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>20 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 30% Positive / 5% Neutral / 65% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 33% Positive / 17% Neutral / 50% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.3 point</p></li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •The best and worst pair from yesterday's announcements is home centre Kohnan Shoji (7516 JP) and image sensor testing equipment maker and erstwhile gaijin favourite Inter Action (7725 JP).  Source for all charts &amp; tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS 
Results continue to improve, but Revisions are net negative.
35 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 51% Positive / 17% Neutral / 31% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +1.6 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -3.8% Quarter YoY / -2.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.2ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 20%
20 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 30% Positive / 5% Neutral / 65% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 33% Positive / 17% Neutral / 50% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.3 point


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​12 - Cosmos, Kohnan Shoji, Hogy Medical, Inter Action

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/974/original/File%202020-10-01%2015%2010%2035.jpeg?1601583635" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162974"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: NHK</div><p><strong>FAILOVER</strong><strong>FAILURE</strong> - The failure of the Fail Over system in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-exchange-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11266:1" rel="noopener">Japan Exchange (8697 JP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujitsu-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16968:1" rel="noopener">Fujitsu (6702 JP)</a> 'arrowhead' trading system on Thursday morning resulted in an unprecedented full-day market suspension. The details and implication will be covered in a separate Insight; however, the embarrassment to Japan's financial system is extreme. The Chief Cabinet Secretary was particularly blunt:-</p><blockquote>
<p> Currently, the Financial Services Agency is instructing the Japan Exchange Group and the Tokyo Stock Exchange to investigate the cause and take measures for recovery, and we are working diligently to recover. I know that the inability to trade on the exchange, which is an important infrastructure of the market, limits the opportunities for trading for investors, and I think it is very regrettable.   </p>
<h3>Katō Katsunobu, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan</h3>
<p><strong>October 1st, 2020</strong></p>
</blockquote><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><p style="text-align: left;">The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nagaileben-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3165:1" rel="noopener">Nagaileben (7447 JP)</a> and waste management company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daiseki-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2330:1" rel="noopener">Daiseki (9793 JP)</a>.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/977/original/2020-10-02_06-08-02.png?1601586653" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162977"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/976/original/2020-10-02_06-10-05.png?1601586638" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162976"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan Analytics</div><p></p><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>12 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p><strong>Results Score:</strong> 67% Positive / 10% Neutral / 33% Negative</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +3.1 points</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> 3.0% Quarter YoY / +1.9% Rolling TTM YoY </p></li>
<li><p><strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> 0.5ppt</p></li>
<li><p><strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses:</strong> 0%</p></li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>7 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><p>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 57% Positive / 0% Neutral / 43% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 20% Neutral / 20% Negative</p></li>
<li><p>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +4.0 points</p></li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Although the sample size is small the 'stats' above are the best since we started this daily series. </strong></p></div>

Source: NHKFAILOVERFAILURE - The failure of the Fail Over system in Japan Exchange (8697 JP) / Fujitsu (6702 JP) 'arrowhead' trading system on Thursday morning resulted in an unprecedented full-day market suspension. The details and implication will be covered in a separate Insight; however, the embarrassment to Japan's financial system is extreme. The Chief Cabinet Secretary was particularly blunt:-
 Currently, the Financial Services Agency is instructing the Japan Exchange Group and the Tokyo Stock Exchange to investigate the cause and take measures for recovery, and we are working diligently to recover. I know that the inability to trade on the exchange, which is an important infrastructure of the market, limits the opportunities for trading for investors, and I think it is very regrettable.   
Katō Katsunobu, Naikaku-kanbō-chōkan
October 1st, 2020
• BEST &amp; WORST •The release of earnings announcements, forecasts and revisions was unaffected, and our best and worst pair is medical wear manufacturer Nagaileben (7447 JP) and waste management company Daiseki (9793 JP).Source for all charts &amp; tables unless otherwise stated: Japan AnalyticsDAILY STATS12 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 67% Positive / 10% Neutral / 33% Negative
Average Results Score Change: +3.1 points
Average % Change in Revenue: 3.0% Quarter YoY / +1.9% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: 0.5ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 0%
7 Annual • 5 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 57% Positive / 0% Neutral / 43% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 60% Positive / 20% Neutral / 20% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: +4.0 points
Although the sample size is small the 'stats' above are the best since we started this daily series. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/359/original/2020-06-30_04-46-42.png?1593460016" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143359"></figure>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/143/360/original/2020-06-30_04-47-13.png?1593460057" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="143360"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>STAYIN' HOME</strong> - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dcm-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13042:1" rel="noopener">DCM (3050 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP),</a> both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shimamura-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15213:1" rel="noopener">Shimamura (8227 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asahi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16460:1" rel="noopener">Asahi (3333 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> being Monday's examples.</p>
<div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>13 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>
<strong>Results Score</strong>: 2 Positive / 11 Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change</strong>:-6.2</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9ppt</li>
</ul>
</div>
<hr>
<div>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong><br>6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4</li>
</ul>
</div>



Source • Japan Analytics
STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results &amp; Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM (3050 JP) and Keiyo (8168 JP), both Retail Home Centers. Revenues rose by 9% and 10% and operating margins increases by 0.9 and 4.0 points, respectively. All other retail formats other than grocery stores have suffered as expected, with Shimamura (8227 JP), Asahi (3333 JP), and J Front Retailing (3086 JP) being Monday's examples.


DAILY STATS


13 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 2 Positive / 11 Negative

Average Results Score Change:-6.2

Average % Change in Revenue: -13.5% Quarter YoY / -1.0% Rolling TTM YoY

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9ppt




 6 Annual 3 Interim Forecasts/Revisions



Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 3 Positive / 3 Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 1 Positive / 2 Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -0.4



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/218/original/2020-04-03_05-20-38.png?1585862586" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126218"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • @punxjk</div><p><strong>ABE-NO-MASKS</strong> - Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to COVID-19 continues despite Tokyo recording its highest number of daily new cases to date. PM Abe's two-masks-per-household policy has been widely-derided as in the viral mashup above of the TV-anime Sazae-san's seven-member family plus pet cat. The Tokyo healthcare system is close to a tipping point or '<em>overshoot</em>' in '<em>gairaigo'</em>. The national government is caught between wanting to avoid the economic consequences of a proper lockdown and the difficulty of enforcing such a measure even under the new emergency powers. Local governments are limited to closing high schools and publically-owned facilities.</p><p><strong>SOCIAL PRESSURE</strong> - Two Osaka hostess bars have become centres of infection, but cannot be named as the owners have refused consent fearing a loss of business. Social pressure is, however,  resulting in voluntary closures of some restaurants as well as Maruhan's 16 Tokyo pachinko parlours. Other parlours have just turned down their garish lighting to 'attract fewer customers'.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/126/219/original/2020-04-03_06-44-57.png?1585863904" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="126219"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • The Economist</div><p><strong>NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS</strong> -  A new <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560" target="_blank" rel="noopener">study </a>by economists at the Fed and MIT Sloan of US cities during and after the 1918 flu pandemic has found that <em>cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively did not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our ﬁndings thus indicate that non-pharmaceutical interventions not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic</em>. While some of this effect may be due to shifts in population to the then less-populous West Coast, the difference between San Francisco and Omaha is stark. As was the case after the 1980s stock market bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis and the events of 3/11, efforts to smooth the decline in the economy only serve to prolong the recovery.</p><p><strong>THURSDAY 2ND APRIL</strong> - A relatively quiet day saw nine quarterly results, with four of the nine companies also making revisions or initial forecasts. All but one of the results scored negatively, and none had a positive change. Of the eight forecasts, only two were positive.  </p>

Source • @punxjkABE-NO-MASKS - Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to COVID-19 continues despite Tokyo recording its highest number of daily new cases to date. PM Abe's two-masks-per-household policy has been widely-derided as in the viral mashup above of the TV-anime Sazae-san's seven-member family plus pet cat. The Tokyo healthcare system is close to a tipping point or 'overshoot' in 'gairaigo'. The national government is caught between wanting to avoid the economic consequences of a proper lockdown and the difficulty of enforcing such a measure even under the new emergency powers. Local governments are limited to closing high schools and publically-owned facilities.SOCIAL PRESSURE - Two Osaka hostess bars have become centres of infection, but cannot be named as the owners have refused consent fearing a loss of business. Social pressure is, however,  resulting in voluntary closures of some restaurants as well as Maruhan's 16 Tokyo pachinko parlours. Other parlours have just turned down their garish lighting to 'attract fewer customers'.Source • The EconomistNECESSARY PRECAUTIONS -  A new study by economists at the Fed and MIT Sloan of US cities during and after the 1918 flu pandemic has found that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively did not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our ﬁndings thus indicate that non-pharmaceutical interventions not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic. While some of this effect may be due to shifts in population to the then less-populous West Coast, the difference between San Francisco and Omaha is stark. As was the case after the 1980s stock market bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis and the events of 3/11, efforts to smooth the decline in the economy only serve to prolong the recovery.THURSDAY 2ND APRIL - A relatively quiet day saw nine quarterly results, with four of the nine companies also making revisions or initial forecasts. All but one of the results scored negatively, and none had a positive change. Of the eight forecasts, only two were positive.  

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 2nd April - Necessary Precautions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).</p>

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the MSCI ACWI following the late-October breakout.  In this report we recap important technical levels across all major indexes and highlight actionable opportunities within Global Health Care stocks, which are hitting on all cylinders, with plenty of opportunities across various industries (services, devices/equipment, pharmaceuticals, biotech, etc.) and geographies (Europe, Japan, China, EM, etc.).

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Japan

NAGAILEBEN CO., LTD. manufactures and sells clothing for the medical industry including antibacterial and antistatic type medical clothing.  The Company also sells shoes, caps, and related goods for doctors, nurses, and patients.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nagaileben (7447 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/12 - Cosmos, Kohnan Shoji, Hogy Medical, Inter Action

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Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

FAIL OVER -

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 2nd April - Necessary Precautions

ABE-NO-MASKS - Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to COVID-19 continues despite Tokyo recording its highest number of daily new cases to date. PM...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​​​​​​​​12 - Cosmos, Kohnan Shoji, Hogy Medical, Inter Action

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Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/​​​​01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie

FAIL OVER -

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 29th June -Stayin' Home

STAYIN' HOME - Only two companies saw their Results & Revision Scores improve quarter-on-quarter amongst the thirteen that reported - DCM...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Update 2nd April - Necessary Precautions

ABE-NO-MASKS - Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to COVID-19 continues despite Tokyo recording its highest number of daily new cases to date. PM...

Campbell Gunn

Global Equity Strategy: Health Care Hitting On All Cylinders - Overweight

Global equities remain in a short-term consolidation phase, however we continue to believe the longer-term trend is up and to the right for the...

Vermilion Research

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/12 - Cosmos, Kohnan Shoji, Hogy Medical, Inter Action

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 10/01 - Fail Over Fail, Nagaileben, Daiseki, Kewpie