Fixed Income and Currency Strategist

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX & Rates

<p>In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to appreciate in the near term.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to appreciate in the near term.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Hungary’s Outperformance Is Playing Catch-Up

<p>Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

Despite its recent underperformance, we reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start tightening monetary policy this year. In our view, the concerns regarding the upcoming change at the helm of the central bank are overstated.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

<p>Following the recent rally in the Indian rupee, we assess that there is more upside in the currency but suggest targeting a better entry point as uncertainties remain.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

Following the recent rally in the Indian rupee, we assess that there is more upside in the currency but suggest targeting a better entry point as uncertainties remain.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Does the Indian Rupee Have More Room to Run?

<p>We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central bank easing too early, a high current account deficit, low international reserves, and high short-term foreign debt.</p><p>Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.</p>

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central bank easing too early, a high current account deficit, low international reserves, and high short-term foreign debt.Separately, the attached file is a snapshot of the EM currency market in which we seek to identify the leaders and laggards among currencies by comparing the performance of each to its history as well as to other currencies based on their respective betas to an EM currency index.

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

Smartkarma Research Team, Smartkarma

Smartkarma Research

Smartkarma Research Team

Smartkarma

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<p>For our next webinar, we're excited to host Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/gautam-jain-phd-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:16876" rel="noopener">Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA</a> , who will be going over the process with which he comes up with trade ideas in Emerging Markets FX and Rates. </p><div><h3>The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 28 April 2021, 11:00 SGT/HKT.</h3></div><div>
<div class="content-highlight"><h2><a href="https://share.hsforms.com/1H9pFZOB-RF2J00kbvMmxcw2c5gj?zoom_webinar_id=87206774217" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Register for the Webinar here</a></h2></div>
<div id="ember2586"><div><div>Gautam Jain has over 20 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specialises in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. He holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.</div></div></div>
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For our next webinar, we're excited to host Insight Provider Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA , who will be going over the process with which he comes up with trade ideas in Emerging Markets FX and Rates. The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 28 April 2021, 11:00 SGT/HKT.
Register for the Webinar here
Gautam Jain has over 20 years of experience covering global emerging fixed income markets, both as a strategist and a portfolio manager. He has worked in buy-side and sell-side firms, including The Rohatyn Group (TRG Management), Barclays Capital, and Millennium Partners. He has helped manage emerging markets local-currency and hard-currency debt funds. The assets that he covers include currencies, interest rates, sovereign credits, and related derivatives. He specialises in portfolio construction, smart-beta index creation, and asset allocation. He holds a Ph.D. in Operations Research from Columbia University and is a CFA charter holder.



Smartkarma Webinar | Alpha Bites: Trade Ideas in FX and Rates

Malaysia

The Malaysian ringgit is the official currency of the Federation of Malaysia. 

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FX Dashboard: Hungary’s Outperformance Is Playing Catch-Up

In this note, we go over the rationale behind the recent outperformance of the Hungarian forint and make the case that the currency can continue to...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Stay Bullish on Mexican Peso

We reiterate our bullish view on the Mexican peso (MXN) as the country's growth outlook gets revised higher and the central bank will likely start...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Does the Indian Rupee Have More Room to Run?

Following the recent rally in the Indian rupee, we assess that there is more upside in the currency but suggest targeting a better entry point as...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

FX Dashboard: Avoid the Lira as Turkey Remains Mired in a Crisis

We recommend staying away from the lira despite the high carry and attractive valuations as it is being weighed down by the risk of the central...

Gautam Jain, PhD, CFA

Smartkarma Webinar | Alpha Bites: Trade Ideas in FX and Rates

On 28 April, 11am SGT, join our webinar with Insight Provider Gautam Jain, who will be going over the process with which he comes up with trade...

Smartkarma Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)