China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in exports posed various threats to the highly leveraged economy which depends upon state owned enterprises and the debts owed by them. However, some sectors such as real estate have started to show signs of improvement which surely will help the economy.While the slow economic growth left Beijing concerned, the recent official data released by presents a…

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in exports posed various threats to the highly leveraged economy which depends upon state owned enterprises and the debts owed by them. However, some sectors such as real estate have started to show signs of improvement which surely will help the economy.While the slow economic growth left Beijing concerned, the recent official data released by presents a…

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David Riedel

Founder

Independent equity research on GEM Markets

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In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic. We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic. Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China. Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers are in a state of panic.  We continue to highlight our view that China’s economy is much stronger than depressed levels of Consumer Sentiment would suggest. We believe the Chinese government is aware of its recent confidence destabilizing policy moves and is focused on avoiding such moves in the near future, allowing consumers to pull out of a prolonged period of panic.  Data collection for the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey ended by the June 23rd Brexit referendum. While it is not yet clear what impact the Brexit will have on the CSI it has the potential to adversely change the global economic outlook and the outlook for China.  Over the next few weeks we will be monitoring the spillover effects of the Brexit carefully.

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Coupang has been quite secretive regarding its China expansion plans. In the past several years, Coupang has shattered many records to become one of the fastest growing E-commerce company not just in Korea, but in the world. Coupang is the largest "start-up" in Korea in history. Ever since Softbank invested US$1 billion in Coupang in 2015, some of the key questions that have been raised include "Will Coupang focus its business in Korea only and what is its expansion plans in China?" Coupang has…

Coupang has been quite secretive regarding its China expansion plans. In the past several years, Coupang has shattered many records to become one of the fastest growing E-commerce company not just in Korea, but in the world. Coupang is the largest "start-up" in Korea in history. Ever since Softbank invested US$1 billion in Coupang in 2015, some of the key questions that have been raised include "Will Coupang focus its business in Korea only and what is its expansion plans in China?" Coupang has…

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events later this month may stress the global economy and financial markets.At the center of these concerns is the uncertainty surrounding the potential for the UK to exit the European Union (Brexit). On June 23rd voters will decide whether Britain will leave or remain in the European Union. Concerns over a possible Brexit surged on Friday following the release of a poll from the Independent showing increasing support for a Brexit, with 55% vote to ‘leave’ against a 45% vote to ‘remain’.Further fueling uncertainty is the US Feds upcoming FOMC meeting set to take place on June 15th. While the Fed is not expected to hike rates in June (the implied probability of a June rate hike is currently just 2%) , investors are very concerned that a surprise hike could trigger volatility across global financial markets.Our proprietary indicators continue to indicate the global economy is strong enough to withstand a potential shock stemming from a surprise rate hike in the US or a Brexit.

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty <ul>
<li>In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. </li>
<li>
Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…</li>
</ul>

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty 
In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key threshold of 116 separating rationally pessimistic consumers from panicking consumers. 

Deterioration in the CSI during May stems from growing uncertainty over the future path of China’s monetary policy. As the urgent need for deleveraging has become apparent a mysterious article published by an anonymous 'authoritative figure' in the People's Daily…


China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Company Ltd. manufactures food seasonings. The Company develops, produces, and distributes condiments including soy sauce, oyster sauce, vinegar, flavoring sauce, chicken stock, monosodium glutamate, and oil.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH)

Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. produces meat products. The Company produces, processes, and sells chicken, duck, pork, and other related products. Guangdong Wens Foodstuffs Group also manufactures and markets cooked meat and frozen meat.

Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd. (300498 CH)

Tongwei Co., Ltd. produces and markets aquatic and animal feeds. The Company also sells animal medicines.

Guangdong Haid Group Company Ltd. manufactures and markets animal feeds.  The Company imports distiller's dried grains with solubles for ingredient in fish and animal feeds.

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company manufactures meat products and frozen food, provides processing and printing services, as well as operates in commercial trading.

Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development (000895 CH)

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

Want Want China Holdings Limited manufactures and trades rice crackers, snack food, beverages, and packing materials.  The Company also manufactures wheat, flour, and raw materials for the manufacture of snack foods.  Most of the company's production facilities are located in China and Taiwan.

Dali Foods Group Company Ltd. is a snack food and beverage company. The Company is actively expanding its products offering and distributes its products through retailers.

New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd develops, produces, and markets a variety of animal feeds The Company also operates a commercial tradingbusiness, produces packing materials, chemicals and fish oil, and provides consulting services.

The Kraft Heinz Company provides food services. The Company offers foods including ketchup, sauces, meals, snacks, and other food products.

Uni-President Enterprises Corp. manufactures, processes, and markets instant noodles, dairy products, frozen foods, soft drinks, soy sauces, canned pickles, meat products, animal feeds, aquatic feeds, edible oils, bread, cakes, and desserts.  The Company also operates vending machines and food distribution centers in Taiwan.

General Mills, Inc. manufactures and markets branded and packaged consumer foods worldwide. The Company also supplies branded and unbranded food products to the foodservice and commercial baking industries.

Ajinomoto Co., Inc. produces and sells a variety of food products, including seasonings, edible oils, processed foods, beverages, and dairy products.  The Company also develops and manufactures pharmaceuticals, amino acids, and specialty chemicals.

Bunge Limited is a global agribusiness and food company. The Company buys, sells, stores, transports and processes oilseeds and grains to make protein meal for animal feed and edible oil products for commercial customers and consumers. Bunge also produces sugar and ethanol from sugarcane, mills wheat and corn, and sells fertilizer.

Hormel Foods Corporation manufactures and markets consumer-branded meat and food products.  The Company processes meat and poultry products and produces a variety of prepared foods.  Hormel markets its products around the world under a variety of branded names.

Nestle India Ltd. manufactures brand name milk products and other food products. The Company's products include Everyday dairy whitener, milk powder and ghee, Milkmaid sweetened condensed milk and Cerelac weaning foods. Nestle's beverages include Nescafe and Sunrise coffee and Nesfit enriched glucose powder. Nestle also manufactures Maggi noodles, soups and sauces.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company procures, transports, stores, processes, and merchandises agricultural commodities and products. The Company processes oilseeds, corn, milo, oats, barley, peanuts, and wheat. Archer-Daniels-Midland also processes produce products which have primarily two end uses including food or feed ingredients.

McCormick & Company, Inc. manufactures, markets, and distributes flavor products (including spices, herbs, extracts, seasonings and flavorings) and other specialty food products to the food industry. The Company sells to retail stores, food manufacturers, and food service businesses.

Tyson Foods, Inc. produces, distributes, and markets chicken, beef, pork, prepared foods and related allied products.  The Company's products are marketed and sold to national and regional grocery retailers, regional grocery wholesalers, meat distributors, warehouse club stores, military commissaries, and industrial food processing companies.

Muyuan Foodstuff Company Limited breeds and sells boars and commodity pigs. The Company's main products include boars, and commodity pigs.

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Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A (002714 CH)

Inside the Chinese Retail Sector

The sluggish growth of Chinese economy in the past couple of months ignited concerns regarding the future of the economy. The slow growth in...

Christopher Balding

China Consumer Sentiment Rises in June as Panic Surrounding Slowing Economy Continues to Dissipate

In June the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) increased to a level of 115.9, just below the threshold level of 116 indicating consumers...

David Riedel

Is Coupang Ready to Expand in China?

Coupang has been quite secretive regarding its China expansion plans. In the past several years, Coupang has shattered many records to become one...

Douglas Kim

Anxiety Over Brexit Surges While Key Economic Data Continue to Improve

Following a ‘risk-on’ rally early in the early part of last week global stocks dropped going into Friday on concerns that a series of key events...

David Riedel

China Consumer Sentiment Snapshot - Urgent Need for Deleveraging Becomes Apparent

CSI Deteriorates in May On Policy Uncertainty In May the MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (CSI) dropped to a level of 114.2, below the key...

David Riedel

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