Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Markets are being led higher by rising Global Liquidity
</li>
<li>This is a ‘classic’ liquidity-driven market rally</li>
<li>Next expect Investors’ Risk Appetite to improve and the equity rally to broaden out globally</li>
<li>World economy likely to strengthen through 2020</li>
</ul>


Markets are being led higher by rising Global Liquidity

This is a ‘classic’ liquidity-driven market rally
Next expect Investors’ Risk Appetite to improve and the equity rally to broaden out globally
World economy likely to strengthen through 2020


<ul>
<li>Risk On</li>
<li>Global Liquidity rebound continues GLI 57.0 index (range 0-100)</li>
<li>US Fed’s QE4 sees balance sheet growing 23% (ann.) clip. Set for US$5 trillion</li>
<li>Treasury Bonds look high risk and US dollar near to its peak. Is this 1987?</li>
<li>China’s PBoC is boxed-in and prevented from easing</li>
</ul>


Risk On
Global Liquidity rebound continues GLI 57.0 index (range 0-100)
US Fed’s QE4 sees balance sheet growing 23% (ann.) clip. Set for US$5 trillion
Treasury Bonds look high risk and US dollar near to its peak. Is this 1987?
China’s PBoC is boxed-in and prevented from easing


The 2020 Outlook: Trump’s Coming Landslide?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip mentality is warranted. While we want to acknowledge that the potential for a US-China tariff escalation remains a risk for the market, we believe this is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. In our December International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to our positive outlook, including actionable trade ideas in technology, health care and manufacturing.

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

<ul>
<li>QE4 on-going: World Central Banks' balance sheets rising 5% annualised clip</li>
<li>US Federal Reserve balance sheet besting all-comers with a whopping near-23% growth rate</li>
<li>This liquidity surge is bond negative, but positive for risk assets: Risk-On</li>
<li>There could be favorable liquidity spill-overs for Emerging Markets and China in 2020</li>
</ul>


QE4 on-going: World Central Banks' balance sheets rising 5% annualised clip
US Federal Reserve balance sheet besting all-comers with a whopping near-23% growth rate
This liquidity surge is bond negative, but positive for risk assets: Risk-On
There could be favorable liquidity spill-overs for Emerging Markets and China in 2020


Did You Know? US Fed’s Balance Sheet Expanding At 23% Annualised Clip

<ul>
<li>Data show that World investors still have a high exposure to 'safe' assets</li>
<li>Yet the major Central Banks appear to have re-started a QE4 stimulus
</li>
<li>
CrossBorder Capital's Investors' Risk Appetite indexes are at historic lows signalling widespread 'Risk-Off' positioning</li>
<li>This extreme is typically a contrarian indicator
</li>
<li>Conclusion is that 2020 should be another rewarding year for equities
</li>
</ul>


Data show that World investors still have a high exposure to 'safe' assets
Yet the major Central Banks appear to have re-started a QE4 stimulus


CrossBorder Capital's Investors' Risk Appetite indexes are at historic lows signalling widespread 'Risk-Off' positioning
This extreme is typically a contrarian indicator

Conclusion is that 2020 should be another rewarding year for equities



United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

It's A Classic Liquidity-Driven Market!

Markets are being led higher by rising Global Liquidity This is a ‘classic’ liquidity-driven market rally Next expect Investors’ Risk Appetite to...

Michael J. Howell

The 2020 Outlook: Trump’s Coming Landslide?

Risk On Global Liquidity rebound continues GLI 57.0 index (range 0-100) US Fed’s QE4 sees balance sheet growing 23% (ann.) clip. Set for US$5...

Michael J. Howell

Global Equities Headed Up and to the Right: Technology, Health Care Leading

Our weight of the evidence approach leads us to believe the market remains in the early stages of a broad-based advance, meaning a buy-the-dip...

Vermilion Research

Did You Know? US Fed’s Balance Sheet Expanding At 23% Annualised Clip

QE4 on-going: World Central Banks' balance sheets rising 5% annualised clip US Federal Reserve balance sheet besting all-comers with a whopping...

Michael J. Howell

Why Are World Investors So Downbeat?

Data show that World investors still have a high exposure to 'safe' assets Yet the major Central Banks appear to have re-started a QE4...

Michael J. Howell