Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. </li>
<li>Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. </li>
<li>We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.</li>
</ul>


This week, we show why the economy is in the final innings of this economic cycle. The only macro-indicator that stubbornly refuses to acknowledge this is the US labor market. 
Real yields are bad for Equities and good for Bonds, but gold is the unlikely asset class that really thrives when real rates spike above 2%. 
We update our scary valuation chart, revealing a monstrous gap between yields and stock market valuation, and look at Bitcoin positioning, our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index, and much more.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.</li><li>The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.</li><li>It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch.The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few localized surprises in policy decisions.It appears that only a handful of bold (or perhaps desperate) governors are willing to stand up to the market’s pressure these days.

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

<ul>
<li>Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.</li>
<li>We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. </li>
<li>With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. </li>
</ul>


Fed Chairman Powell delivered a very powerful statement this week on the need to retain price stability. As a result, investors are giving up their fight to think otherwise.
We focus on France’s horrible PMI data and explain how we may see a repetition of the US retail sales slump witnessed in December 2018. 
With central bankers embracing the ‘higher for longer’ narrative, real yields will start to hurt. 


The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

<ul>
<li>The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.</li>
<li>Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.</li>
<li>Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.</li>
</ul>


The awkward and conflicting statement of the ECB accompanying the tenth and likely final rate increase.
Chinese credit growth remains tepid at best, signaling downside risks for equities and the Euro.
Three ugly UK recession charts this week will put additional pressure on the British Pound. And our Fear &amp; Frenzy is agonizingly close to Frenzy territory, triggering a sell signal.


The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

<ul>
<li>Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? </li>
<li>It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.</li>
<li>The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.</li>
</ul>


Why did the seemingly marginally negative Apple news coming from China erase a whopping USD 200 billion in market cap? 
It seems like the US labor market has wrongfooted investors again, judging from the latest ISM Services and claims data.
The Chinese Yuan has also rejoined its downward trend after a brief revival, and this does not bode well for equities.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

United States

The MSCI World Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31, 1969. MXWO includes developed world markets, and does not include emerging markets. MXWD includes both emerging and developed markets.

MSCI World Index (MXWO INDEX)

The Weekly Market Monitor – Real Rates = Growth Scare?

Defaults are rising, gasoline demand is falling out of bed, and price pressures reside despite spiking energy prices. Is the growth slump finally...

Jeroen Blokland

Positioning Watch: Higher for longer vs Lower for longer?

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly weekend Positioning Watch. The Central Bank bonanza week has come to a close, with only a few...

Steno Research

The Weekly Market Monitor – Are Central Banks Finally Breaking Sentiment?

One-and-a-half hawkish central bank pauses spooked equity investors, who are running out of narratives to keep stocks from falling.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – The ECB’s Unreasonable Hike While the UK Falls into Recession

Markets got a dovish ECB hike but wrapped in a highly conflicting message, and one that will likely qualify as a policy mistake in hindsight.

Jeroen Blokland

The Weekly Market Monitor – Valuation Woes and Currency Moves

Apple erasing USD 200 billion in market cap on marginally negative news confirms (US) Equities are priced for perfection.

Jeroen Blokland