Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related energy and materials stocks are reaping the benefits. We expect their outperformance to continue. In this week's report we highlight commodities and actionable associated stocks.

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

In our April International Strategy, we explore the recent consolidation across global equity markets and examine the following opportunities within:<ul><li>Defensive Sectors, including an actionable Group within Health Care: Pharmaceuticals</li><li>Japan and Hong Kong</li><li>Emerging Markets</li></ul>Also included are links to in-depth commentary on all 12 sectors

In our April International Strategy, we explore the recent consolidation across global equity markets and examine the following opportunities within:Defensive Sectors, including an actionable Group within Health Care: PharmaceuticalsJapan and Hong KongEmerging MarketsAlso included are links to in-depth commentary on all 12 sectors

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan, HK, &  EM

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps tell a different story and are a great source of investment ideas within the EAFE region. In today’s report we use a bottom-up approach to highlight actionable charts, sorted by market cap (all buys at current levels).

Managing Director, MTS Research

Peter Beuttell

Managing Director

MTS Research

MTS Research Limited is an independent investment research company specialising in technical analysis. 

MTS Research provides technical analysis services in the form of regular publications and consultancy advice, catering for a number of different investment approaches from absolute or relative returns to long-only and long/short.  The company has a global client base of blue-chip financial institutions ranging in size and stretching from Los Angeles to Tokyo, via New York, London, Frankfurt and Hong Kong.  

MTS was founded in 1989 at the request of Morgan Grenfell Investment Services Limited (MGIS), the ERISA arm of Morgan Grenfell Asset Management (subsequently Deutsche Asset Management), by Peter Beuttell, a Portfolio Manager at MGIS between 1987 and 1989. 

Peter is a qualified Chartered Accountant and self-taught market technician with over 30 years experience.  At MGIS, Peter managed money in European, Australasian and Far East markets for US clients, such as American Airlines and American Petrofina.  He achieved first quartile perfomance on their behalf by blending fundamental and technical analysis in his investment decision-making.  

After an initial focus on the EAFE markets (Europe, Australasia and Far East), the company has recently expanded its coverage to include the Americas, thanks to the recently-completed two-year Knowledge Transfer Partnership with the University of Plymouth.  The resulting software – the Technical Overlay Program (TOP) – allows fund managers to access an immediate Technical view on any market, sector, stock, bond yield, currency or commodity within their selected universe.

MTS Research consists of a team of five based in Penzance and London. 

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to previous bear market lows, and speculated that we have been witnessing a buying climax, or upwards crash.Another indicator is signalling crash-like conditions, hence the headline. ADX is a measure of Trend Strength (first chart; note that it does not differentiate between up- and downtrends, only their intensity), and only twice since its inception has the…

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to previous bear market lows, and speculated that we have been witnessing a buying climax, or upwards crash.Another indicator is signalling crash-like conditions, hence the headline. ADX is a measure of Trend Strength (first chart; note that it does not differentiate between up- and downtrends, only their intensity), and only twice since its inception has the…

S&P 500: Is This the 2008 Crash in Reverse?

A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum: Is this month’s 30-year record reading in the World Index a sign of bullish acceleration, or bearish exhaustion? This is a very rare event, so what does history tell us?Firstly, that this is a unique juncture in market history, at least in more modern times.Since the inception of the Dow indices in 1897, no bull market has produced this much momentum this late in the cycle. I therefore view it as more likely that the market is in the throes of a buying climax, but one which is not quite complete. A 6% rise from the close when the 8-week RSI hit the 75% mark would put SPX at 3,003 and MXWD at 561.  (The stats in the table suggest this % as a minimum).However, since markets rarely peak on peak momentum (the only exceptions were 1897 and 1968), any sharp correction as buying is exhausted should be followed by at least one more attempt at a new high thereafter.Does this change my view that the Technology bull market is ending?  No.  And if my conclusion about a buying climax is correct, it arguably supports it.  As for NASDAQ 100 being "game over", this confirms that it is probably still in "extra time".  Perhaps I should have said "Game (Nearly) Over" ... If you read the results differently from me, I would love to hear.

A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum: Is this month’s 30-year record reading in the World Index a sign of bullish acceleration, or bearish exhaustion? This is a very rare event, so what does history tell us?Firstly, that this is a unique juncture in market history, at least in more modern times.Since the inception of the Dow indices in 1897, no bull market has produced this much momentum this late in the cycle. I therefore view it as more likely that the market is in the throes of a buying climax, but one which is not quite complete. A 6% rise from the close when the 8-week RSI hit the 75% mark would put SPX at 3,003 and MXWD at 561.  (The stats in the table suggest this % as a minimum).However, since markets rarely peak on peak momentum (the only exceptions were 1897 and 1968), any sharp correction as buying is exhausted should be followed by at least one more attempt at a new high thereafter.Does this change my view that the Technology bull market is ending?  No.  And if my conclusion about a buying climax is correct, it arguably supports it.  As for NASDAQ 100 being "game over", this confirms that it is probably still in "extra time".  Perhaps I should have said "Game (Nearly) Over" ... If you read the results differently from me, I would love to hear.  

World Index: A 120-Year History of Extreme Momentum

United States

The MSCI ACWI Index is a free-float weighted equity index. It was developed with a base value of 100 as of December 31 1987. MXWD includes both emerging and developed world markets. 

MSCI ACWI Index (MXWD INDEX)

Opportunities in Global Energy & Materials Stocks

Commodities and related stocks are on the rise. Crude oil, industrial metals, and lumber prices are all breaking out to new highs and related...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Japan, HK, & EM

In our April International Strategy, we explore the recent consolidation across global equity markets and examine the following opportunities...

Vermilion Research

Focus on Outperforming EAFE SMID-Caps

Developed international equities (MSCI EAFE) have been underperforming relative to global equities (MSCI ACWI). However, within EAFE, SMID-caps...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500: Is This the 2008 Crash in Reverse?

In "A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum" I looked at when similar momentum readings to January's had occurred, particularly in relation to...

Peter Beuttell

World Index: A 120-Year History of Extreme Momentum

A 120-year History of Extreme Momentum: Is this month’s 30-year record reading in the World Index a sign of bullish acceleration, or bearish...

Peter Beuttell