Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Following our insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mongolia-mining-corp-975-hk-play-on-coking-coal-price-with-growth-optionality" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality, </a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mongolia-mining-corp-975-hk-play-on-coking-coal-price-with-growth-optionality" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> </a>has released its <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0722/2024072200375.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Q2 2024 operational numbers</a>. </li>
<li>For Q2, the sales of coking coal products increased by 47% YoY and for H1 by 25% YoY. HCC was only 63% of the product mix (vs 87% in H1FY23).</li>
<li>Based on our numbers, the stock trades at 5.6x FY24 PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. We await the H1 FY23 results and clarity on the dividend catalyst in August. </li>
</ul>


Following our insight, Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality, Mongolian Mining (975 HK) has released its Q2 2024 operational numbers. 
For Q2, the sales of coking coal products increased by 47% YoY and for H1 by 25% YoY. HCC was only 63% of the product mix (vs 87% in H1FY23).
Based on our numbers, the stock trades at 5.6x FY24 PE and 2.6x EV-EBITDA. We await the H1 FY23 results and clarity on the dividend catalyst in August. 


Mongolian Mining (975 HK): Q2 2024 Production Impressive, Good Set Up for H1

<ul>
<li>Following our piece, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fushan-energy-639-hk-coking-coal-prices-to-strengthen-with-anglo-accident" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:150683" rel="noopener">Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident</a>, we highlight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> as another play with growth potential. </li>
<li>With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0221/2024022100574.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX</a>, it is net cash. </li>
<li>Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its <a href="https://erdene.com/site/assets/files/4243/erd_q3_2024.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia</a>. </li>
</ul>


Following our piece, Fushan Energy (639 HK): Coking Coal Prices To Strengthen With Anglo Accident, we highlight Mongolian Mining (975 HK) as another play with growth potential. 
With a market capitalization of 1.1 bn USD, it trades at 5.3x PE, trailing, and with the sale of 20% of its subsidiary KEX, it is net cash. 
Potential catalysts include the payment of a first dividend once it has redeemed the perpetual notes and the commencement of its highly accretive gold project in 2025 in Mongolia. 


Mongolia Mining Corp (975 HK): Play on Coking Coal Price With Growth Optionality

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.</li>
<li>We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 37 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 25 potential deletes (on market cap and liquidity) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September.
We expect 32 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 24 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/nameson-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Nameson Holdings</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/genting-bhd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Genting Bhd</a></li><li><a href='/entities/shui-on-land-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Shui On Land</a></li><li><a href='/entities/health-and-happiness-h-h-int' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Health And Happiness (H&H)</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Nameson HoldingsSunny Optical Technology GroupGenting BhdShui On LandHealth And Happiness (H&H)and more...

Mongolia

Mongolian Mining Corporation produces coking coal.  The Company operates the Ukhaa Khudag mine in Mongolia.

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Mongolian Mining (975 HK)