Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.</li>
<li>The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). </li>
<li>These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.</li>
</ul>


Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&amp;P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.


Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We again write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their inclusion.</li>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mastercard-inc-class-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15529:1" rel="noopener">Mastercard (MA US)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vertex-pharmaceuticals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4864:1" rel="noopener">Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pearson-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:680:1" rel="noopener">Pearson Plc (PSON LN)</a> </li>
<li>For the four weeks ended 16 Dec the combined innovation portfolio was -1.1%, versus DJIA -2.4%, S&amp;P500 -2.8%, Nasdaq -4.0% &amp; MSCI-ACWI-ETF -2.3%, all in US$ terms.</li>
</ul>


We again write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their inclusion.
The three companies we write about this week are Mastercard (MA US) , Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US) and Pearson Plc (PSON LN) 
For the four weeks ended 16 Dec the combined innovation portfolio was -1.1%, versus DJIA -2.4%, S&amp;P500 -2.8%, Nasdaq -4.0% &amp; MSCI-ACWI-ETF -2.3%, all in US$ terms.


<ul>
<li>We again write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their inclusion in the portfolio.</li>
<li>The three companies we write about this week are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evonik-industries-ag" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21618:1" rel="noopener">Evonik Industries Ag (EVK GR)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/altria-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6572:1" rel="noopener">Altria Group (MO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/procter-gamble-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:978:1" rel="noopener">Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US)</a> </li>
<li>For three weeks ended 9 Dec the combined innovation portfolio was +0.7%, versus DJIA -0.8%, S&amp;P500 -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.3% &amp; MSCI-ACWI-ETF +0.5%.</li>
</ul>


We again write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their inclusion in the portfolio.
The three companies we write about this week are Evonik Industries Ag (EVK GR)Altria Group (MO US) and Procter &amp; Gamble Co (PG US) 
For three weeks ended 9 Dec the combined innovation portfolio was +0.7%, versus DJIA -0.8%, S&amp;P500 -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.3% &amp; MSCI-ACWI-ETF +0.5%.


<ul>
<li>Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). </li>
<li>The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280</li>
<li>As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.</li>
</ul>


Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.


Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

<ul>
<li>We write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their the innovation scores and inclusion in the portfolio.  </li>
<li>The three companies are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/johnson-johnson-831a1ab9-b291-4564-99b0-dc7f8d2b8175" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26818:1" rel="noopener">Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ UN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mondelez-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8111:1" rel="noopener">Mondelez International (MDLZ US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qorvo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11965:1" rel="noopener">Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), which have the highest weighting in each portfolio</a>
</li>
<li>For the week the large cap portfolio was up 1.2%, the midcap was up 1.4% and the small cap was up 0.9%, all in US$ terms.  </li>
</ul>


We write about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly giving the reasons behind their the innovation scores and inclusion in the portfolio.  
The three companies are Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ UN) , Mondelez International (MDLZ US) and Qorvo Inc (QRVO US), which have the highest weighting in each portfolio

For the week the large cap portfolio was up 1.2%, the midcap was up 1.4% and the small cap was up 0.9%, all in US$ terms.  


How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

United States

Mondelez International Inc. is a food and beverage company.  The Company manufactures and markets packaged food products, including snacks, beverages, cheese, convenient meals and various packaged grocery products.  Mondelez International sells its products throughout the world.

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Mondelez International (MDLZ US)

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Since late November we have discussed our expectations for a pullback, recommending shifting exposure to defensives $XLP $XLV $XLU and/or taking...

Vermilion Research

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Four

For four weeks ended 16 Dec the combined innovation portfolio was -1.1%, versus DJIA -2.4%, S&P500 -2.8%, Nasdaq -4.0% & MSCI-ACWI-ETF -2.3%, all...

Pyari Menon

The Innovations Portfolios - Week Three

We assess how the three portfolios did for the first three weeks and discuss about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios

Pyari Menon

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling -- Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

$SPX unable to sustain a breakout above 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, $IWM remains below $190 resistance, $DJI could not sustain a breakout above...

Vermilion Research

How the Portfolios Did for the First Week

We assess how the three portfolios did for the first week and discuss about one stock each from the large, mid and small cap portfolios, briefly...

Pyari Menon

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52-week Range

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