Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  </li>
<li>They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.</li>
<li>These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. This week: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech</li>
</ul>


This model seeks short-sale candidates among companies that use aggressive accounting and/or exhibit deteriorating quality of earnings.  
They are typically highly idiosyncratic shorts and require thoughtful analyses of upcoming catalysts.  When the company’s issues become well-known, there is often multiple compression as well as a rerating.
These shorts can have high or low betas, valuations based on artificial earnings and exhibit good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. This week: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech


Reminder: Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.</li>
<li>Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  </li>
<li>With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.</li>
</ul>



Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.
Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  
With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.


Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

Equity Long-Short Analyst

Pyari Menon

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices</li>
<li>The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   </li>
<li>We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.</li>
</ul>


We compare how a portfolio composed of our top five picks in each of our thematic reports based on datamining technical publications would have performed versus Indices
The size of outperformance for various periods suggests that incorporating innovation quality index that we use to rank companies can be a solid tool to generate alpha.   
We understand that much of the outperformance is generated by positive skew but even backing out the largest two contributors we see solid outperformance.


A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-bioscience-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31484:1" rel="noopener">SK Bioscience (302440 KS)</a> received approval for Korea’s first locally-developed COVID-19 vaccine, SKYCovione. The company is seeking European approval and plans to apply for emergency use listing to the WHO.</li>
<li>The company is a late entrant in the overcrowded domestic vaccine market. Currently, six vaccines are approved for use in South Korea. Moreover, demand outlook is uncertain beyond 2022.</li>
<li>Recently, the company has dropped a multinational phase 3 trial of P2-VP8, trivalent rotavirus vaccine. Among the non-COVID pipeline, P2-VP8 was in the most advanced stage of clinical trial.</li>
</ul>



SK Bioscience (302440 KS) received approval for Korea’s first locally-developed COVID-19 vaccine, SKYCovione. The company is seeking European approval and plans to apply for emergency use listing to the WHO.
The company is a late entrant in the overcrowded domestic vaccine market. Currently, six vaccines are approved for use in South Korea. Moreover, demand outlook is uncertain beyond 2022.
Recently, the company has dropped a multinational phase 3 trial of P2-VP8, trivalent rotavirus vaccine. Among the non-COVID pipeline, P2-VP8 was in the most advanced stage of clinical trial.


SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Murky Outlook On Weak Vaccine Demand And Flooding Supply

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/moderna-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28744:1" rel="noopener">Moderna Inc (MRNA US)</a> reported strong Q2 results, with both revenue and EPS surpassing consensus. Profitability was negatively impacted by one-off inventory write-down charge.</li>
<li>Management has reiterated advance purchase agreements for expected delivery of ~$21 billion in 2022. Assuming an endemic situation, Moderna’s commercial infrastructure is prepared for a 2023 commercial market.</li>
<li>The Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program for $3 billion in August 2022, with no expiry. Moderna shares have gained 27% in last three months.</li>
</ul>



Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported strong Q2 results, with both revenue and EPS surpassing consensus. Profitability was negatively impacted by one-off inventory write-down charge.
Management has reiterated advance purchase agreements for expected delivery of ~$21 billion in 2022. Assuming an endemic situation, Moderna’s commercial infrastructure is prepared for a 2023 commercial market.
The Board of Directors has approved a new share repurchase program for $3 billion in August 2022, with no expiry. Moderna shares have gained 27% in last three months.


Moderna (MRNA US): Better-Than-Expected Q2 Result; Guidance Reiterated; $3B Share Buyback Announced

United States

Moderna, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on the discovery and development of messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines. Moderna develops mRNA medicines for infectious, immuno-oncology, and cardiovascular diseases.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Moderna (MRNA US)

Reminder: Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

Moderna’s Q3 result missed expectations. The company has cut 2022 vaccine revenue guidance. Multiple data readouts for respiratory and cancer...

Tina Banerjee

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Murky Outlook On Weak Vaccine Demand And Flooding Supply

SK bioscience is a late entrant in the overcrowded COVID-19 vaccine market. Demand for the vaccine is waning globally and is uncertain beyond 2022....

Tina Banerjee

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Reminder: Earnings Quality Short Candidates: Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Earnings Quality shorts lead to idiosyncratic alpha. Today, we show our model rankings and highlight Moderna, Sonos, Knowles, Juniper Tech

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

Moderna’s Q3 result missed expectations. The company has cut 2022 vaccine revenue guidance. Multiple data readouts for respiratory and cancer...

Tina Banerjee

A Look at How a Portfolio Composed of Our Top Five Innovators in Each Report Would Have Performed

Our datamining reports ranks companies within thematic based on innovation quality. We see strong outperformance in a portfolio built using the top...

Pyari Menon

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): Murky Outlook On Weak Vaccine Demand And Flooding Supply

SK bioscience is a late entrant in the overcrowded COVID-19 vaccine market. Demand for the vaccine is waning globally and is uncertain beyond 2022....

Tina Banerjee

Moderna (MRNA US): Better-Than-Expected Q2 Result; Guidance Reiterated; $3B Share Buyback Announced

Moderna reported strong Q2 results, reiterated 2022 advance purchase agreement guidance, and announced a new $3 billion share buyback plan, which...

Tina Banerjee