Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016, Japanese companies have announced JPY 4.3trln yen of buybacks, and in the past ten years, only two full years have seen higher totals (2007 and 2015 at just over 4.5trln yen each). There will likely be a lot more before the year-end and a lot of them will take place by ToSTNeT-3 buyback. The announcement today of a ToSTNeT-3 buyback by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/783" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:783">NTT</a>  for up to…

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016, Japanese companies have announced JPY 4.3trln yen of buybacks, and in the past ten years, only two full years have seen higher totals (2007 and 2015 at just over 4.5trln yen each). There will likely be a lot more before the year-end and a lot of them will take place by ToSTNeT-3 buyback. The announcement today of a ToSTNeT-3 buyback by NTT  for up to…

Event-Driven

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/008/831/original/KaChingLogo.png?1464896523" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="8831"></figure>In January, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/589" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:589">Dah Sing Financial Holdings</a> (DSFH, 440 HK) announced it was entertaining offers for its insurance unit after an article suggested as much, including that the pricetag could be as high as US$1bn. Since then, there have been a variety of articles keeping us up to date on the possibilities, Dah Sing Financial is up 32%, the model delta-neutral long/short portfolio constructed in the Insights at right are up 36-38% since the end of January 13 (the day after the original news), and now we…

In January, Dah Sing Financial Holdings (DSFH, 440 HK) announced it was entertaining offers for its insurance unit after an article suggested as much, including that the pricetag could be as high as US$1bn. Since then, there have been a variety of articles keeping us up to date on the possibilities, Dah Sing Financial is up 32%, the model delta-neutral long/short portfolio constructed in the Insights at right are up 36-38% since the end of January 13 (the day after the original news), and now we…

The conclusions in my <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/more-mitsubishi-motors-muppetry" target="_blank">last comment</a> about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/794" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794">Mitsubishi Motors</a>  two weeks ago suggested Nissan would make an excellent acquirer for Mitsubishi Motors as it suited both parties. Nissan needs more of what Mitsubishi has (EV, hybrids, minicars, high margin ASEAN sales), and Mitsubishi needs more of what Nissan has (a lack of scandal, and generally good public trust and sense of corporate governance). I had not expected news so soon, but we have it today.This morning, the Nikkei carried an <a href="http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Deals/Nissan-to-take-30-stake-in-Mitsubishi-Motors" target="_blank">article</a> sayin…

The conclusions in my last comment about Mitsubishi Motors  two weeks ago suggested Nissan would make an excellent acquirer for Mitsubishi Motors as it suited both parties. Nissan needs more of what Mitsubishi has (EV, hybrids, minicars, high margin ASEAN sales), and Mitsubishi needs more of what Nissan has (a lack of scandal, and generally good public trust and sense of corporate governance). I had not expected news so soon, but we have it today.This morning, the Nikkei carried an article sayin…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing.  Policymakers are admitting problems and looking more impatiently to governments to step up efforts to stimulate growth with fiscal stimulus and structural reform.  However, significant progress on this front almost seems hopeless and central banks are being forced reluctantly to do more.  These same fears have returned in China with its capital markets displaying a lack of confidence in the sustainability of policies aimed at boosting growth, as rapid credit expansion yields little overall economic advance. In this environment we expect gold to continue its advance.  However, gold has been boosted recently by the surge in JPY and overall weakness in the USD.  These trends may be tired with Japanese policy makers stepping up their threats of intervention and further policy easing, while US rate hike expectations have been pushed further out and strength in US labor data this week may support the USD.  As such we now see long gold/short JPY as offering a better reward for risk.

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

Kay Van-Petersen

Macro Strategist

Saxo Capital Markets

<ul><li>Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through water</li><li>USDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in Japan</li><li>Whilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indices</li><li>On currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close </li><li>On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…</li><li>Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)</li></ul>

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the critical 110 level like fish through waterUSDJPY at 108.07 on Friday is now down -9% &amp; -1% from QE III &amp; QE II rounds in JapanWhilst timing is always the factor, I favour portfolios with downward exposure, be they long vol, long puts the Nikkei/Kospi/Dax/Dow/S&amp;P or outright shorts on those indicesOn currencies, even though I feel we are in a USD liquidation phase, tactically I favour risk-off crosses such as Short AUDJPY, Short NZDJPY, short GBPJPY. With that said EURUSD should take out 1.15 this week from Friday sub 1.14 close On commodities, once again Gold miners GDX &amp; spot – remember the call people, we will see $1500 sooner than you think. And on bonds, once again US10yrs, yes at 1.75% they are tight. But it’s a relative world with JGBs &amp; Bund at -7bp &amp; +9bp &amp; key event risks in Jun &amp; Jul globally, +1.75% is a steal…Lots of data due out this week: US earnings season kicks off today, globally its an inflation themed week &amp; there will be a big focus on China’s GDP due out on Fri (15)

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

JAPAN: How a ToSTNeT-3 Buyback Works

Buybacks (or "own share purchases") by listed companies Japan are likely to be at a record this year. In only the first 5 months of calendar 2016,...

Travis Lundy

Dah Sing - Ring-A-Ling-Ka-Ching

In January, Dah Sing Financial Holdings (DSFH, 440 HK) announced it was entertaining offers for its insurance unit after an article suggested as...

Travis Lundy

Nissan To Make MitMotors Great Again?

The conclusions in my last comment about Mitsubishi Motors two weeks ago suggested Nissan would make an excellent acquirer for Mitsubishi Motors...

Travis Lundy

AmpGFX - Frustration, Despair and Case for Gold/JPY

Global equities look tired and are exhibiting investor fears over diminishing capacity for and returns from further global monetary policy easing. ...

Greg Gibbs

Global Macro Take: WK 15. False Gods Be Damned….

Last week’s structural degradation on the USDJPY cross is a messenger bearing grim tidings – a big sell off is imminent – as we sliced through the...

Kay Van-Petersen

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