Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.</li>
<li>We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-acwi-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24402:1" rel="noopener">iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US)</a> .</li>
<li>$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US</li>
</ul>


Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States' credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
$TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we'd buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US


Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral</li>
<li>NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan - still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX rises as investors see end of Fed rate hike cycle; Investors continue to doubt the US bull market; China steps in again to support Real Estate market 
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand;  JP investors buy record foreign bonds in H1;  ON THE STREET:Mit Motors to BUY; Toyota to Neutral
NUGGET. Push for more women on boards continue in Japan - still lagging, but trend is up. Will it play out in valuations? Global Evidence Supportive.


Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. </li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS.  SPX -0.5% with most Sector in the Red; Residential Construction STRONG; China Rate Cut disappoints; TESLA +5.3% bags Rivian for Charging Network.
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Labor market loosing as JP workers shying away from liftime employment; Yamato HD exits mail delivery
NUGGET. Nintendo(7974) - Doing a Disney..using its IP…Now Mario out, Rumour are "Legend of Zelda" Movie in the works.. 


Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. SPX ,-0.6% overnight, manages +0.3% for May; Debt Ceiling Passage on Track; 2 Fed Officials express dovish view; Weak China Factory PMI puts a Damper on Sentiment</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JP Equities Best Globally in May; USDJPY strenghtens after intervention warning; Bullish Daikin MTP growth plan; JP Autos rank worst in BEV transition ranking </li>
<li>NUGGET. Revisiting our thesis on Seiko Epson in light of HP Inc(HPQ) 2Q earnings and IDC April report on PCs</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. SPX ,-0.6% overnight, manages +0.3% for May; Debt Ceiling Passage on Track; 2 Fed Officials express dovish view; Weak China Factory PMI puts a Damper on Sentiment
JAPAN. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JP Equities Best Globally in May; USDJPY strenghtens after intervention warning; Bullish Daikin MTP growth plan; JP Autos rank worst in BEV transition ranking 
NUGGET. Revisiting our thesis on Seiko Epson in light of HP Inc(HPQ) 2Q earnings and IDC April report on PCs


Ohayo Japan |SPX Sells off on AI Rally Pause to Close May +0.3%;NUGGET: Seiko Epson-Headwinds Abound

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. US Closed for Memorial Day; SPX Futs rise on Debt Deal prospects; Republican Right Wing opposition emerging; NVIDIA annc partnerships/new chip release that CEO says is "A Big Deal"</li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects; Softbank share px +8% on ARM new chip rollout</li>
<li>NUGGET.  [Another] Wake-Up Call for Japanese OEMs.  The impact of rapid EV transition is starting with Toyota at the forefront. If this is happening to Toyota NOW, then the rest...</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. US Closed for Memorial Day; SPX Futs rise on Debt Deal prospects; Republican Right Wing opposition emerging; NVIDIA annc partnerships/new chip release that CEO says is "A Big Deal"
JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects; Softbank share px +8% on ARM new chip rollout
NUGGET.  [Another] Wake-Up Call for Japanese OEMs.  The impact of rapid EV transition is starting with Toyota at the forefront. If this is happening to Toyota NOW, then the rest...


Ohayo Japan |SPX Futs Gain on Memorial Day-Debt Optimism; NUGGET: Disruption Gets Real for JP Autos

Japan

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More for global equities?; Watch Resistance on $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys in Consumer Discretionary...

Vermilion Research

Ohayo Japan| Fed Rate Hike End in Sight; NUGGET: More Women on Boards = Higher Valuations?

SPX gains as end of Fed hike cycle in sight; NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USJPY 141.3; "New" NISA eligible funds expand; JP investors buy record...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan| US Back to an Equity Sell Off; NUGGET: Nintendo(7974) - Set to Track Disney's Success ?

US Back - in the Red despite strong housing; NKY Futs -0.9% vs Cash; Blackrock's Fink say Japan benefitting from China Flight; Yamato HD exits mail...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |SPX Sells off on AI Rally Pause to Close May +0.3%;NUGGET: Seiko Epson-Headwinds Abound

Debt deal in sight. NKY Futs -0.4% vs Cash; JP Equities Best Globally in May; USDJPY strenghtens after intervention warning; Bullish Daikin MTP...

Mark Chadwick

Ohayo Japan |SPX Futs Gain on Memorial Day-Debt Optimism; NUGGET: Disruption Gets Real for JP Autos

US Memorial Holidays. NKY Futs +0.2% vs Cash; Likely further follow through to the Upside for Japan stocks on weak yen/debt deal prospects;...

Mark Chadwick

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