Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail - 80% of the book - is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. </li>
<li>The Offering has follow-on "non-discretionary" demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.</li>
<li>The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda's relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.</li>
</ul>


The ¥500bn Offering of Honda shares is now priced (¥1,664.5/share) making it ¥497.46bn. Bookbuilding for retail - 80% of the book - is now. The price today closed at ¥1,665/share. 
The Offering has follow-on "non-discretionary" demand which is non-negligible. It is worth understanding the amounts and timing.
The lockups and non-discretionary demand, along with Honda's relative cheapness as a large cap OEM and likely upcoming offerings on competitors means it has support.


Big Honda (7267) Offering - Flow Timing Matters

<ul>
<li>At the beginning of this month, we got a scoop from Reuters about a US$3bn selldown of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> by P&amp;C insurers and others. </li>
<li>We knew this was coming at some point. The FSA had pushed the insurers to unwind cross-holdings, and it is otherwise of the zeitgeist. </li>
<li>It came out as heavily retail-oriented, and the supply/demand details are otherwise interesting. To boot, there is an EPS boost to come.</li>
</ul>


At the beginning of this month, we got a scoop from Reuters about a US$3bn selldown of Honda Motor (7267 JP) by P&amp;C insurers and others. 
We knew this was coming at some point. The FSA had pushed the insurers to unwind cross-holdings, and it is otherwise of the zeitgeist. 
It came out as heavily retail-oriented, and the supply/demand details are otherwise interesting. To boot, there is an EPS boost to come.


The Honda (7267) Offering - Much Easier Than It Looks

<ul>
<li>Just pre-close on 2 July, Reuters carried an article suggesting a ¥500bn secondary offering in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> as insurers sold. The stock fell 4% in minutes. </li>
<li>Honda semi-confirmed but it took two days to get to the details, now out. The stock climbed in the meantime. </li>
<li>At launch, this deal is two-thirds covered by buyback + passive demand but the supply is heavily-weighted to retail. Cheaper than it looks, lots of moving parts. Read the details!</li>
</ul>


Just pre-close on 2 July, Reuters carried an article suggesting a ¥500bn secondary offering in Honda Motor (7267 JP) as insurers sold. The stock fell 4% in minutes. 
Honda semi-confirmed but it took two days to get to the details, now out. The stock climbed in the meantime. 
At launch, this deal is two-thirds covered by buyback + passive demand but the supply is heavily-weighted to retail. Cheaper than it looks, lots of moving parts. Read the details!


Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> .</li>
<li>The possibility of such a selldown was flagged earlier in the week by Reuters. Thus, the deal is well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>


A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP) .
The possibility of such a selldown was flagged earlier in the week by Reuters. Thus, the deal is well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Honda Motor Placement - Large in Size, Relatively Small in Other Terms

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan's four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.</li>
<li>That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far. </li>
<li>The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.</li>
</ul>


Today just before the close, Reuters came out with an article saying Japan's four major insurers and some financial institutions would offer ¥500bn of shares in a secondary offering.
That implies about 275-280mm shares (insurers hold ~195mm). In May, Honda announced a ¥300bn buyback with earnings, with nothing done so far. 
The supply/demand dynamics here are key. There are a lot of moving parts over time. Honda is cheaper than it looks but there are moving parts there too.


BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

Japan

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

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The Honda (7267) Offering - Much Easier Than It Looks

Honda's mega-offering is not mega. It is two-thirds covered by non-active investor demand over the next two months. 80+% if the stock falls post...

Travis Lundy

Big ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Is Small

The big ¥500bn Honda offering is announced. Details and context the buyback and passive demand cover two-thirds of the offering but this is going...

Travis Lundy

Honda Motor Placement - Large in Size, Relatively Small in Other Terms

A group of shareholders aims to raise up to US$3.2bn via selling around 5% of Honda Motor (7267 JP). In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics...

Sumeet Singh

BIG ¥500bn Honda (7267) Offering Coming?

A Reuters article today suggested Japanese non-life insurers and other financial holders would combine to launch a ¥500bn secondary offering on...

Travis Lundy

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