Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.</li>
<li>Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback <em>again</em>.</li>
<li>We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish following the S&amp;P 500's multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled "Buy the Pullback," and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it's time to buy the pullback again.
We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).


Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arm-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21816:1" rel="noopener">ARM Holdings (ARM US)</a> has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microstrategy-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14717:1" rel="noopener">Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)</a> are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dollar-tree-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10913:1" rel="noopener">Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US)</a> is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.</li>
</ul>



ARM Holdings (ARM US) has secured a place in the index and is no longer a deletion candidate thanks to the recent methodology changes.

AppLovin (APP US) and Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) are the main candidates for direct addition following their recent stock price surge.

Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR US) is the favorable candidate for direct deletion in December with an additional but negligible probability of fast-exit in November.


Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

Microstrategy Inc Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>This is our first report on MicroStrategy, a company at the forefront of enterprise analytics software.</li><li>In the third quarter of 2023, the company revealed notable developments in both its primary software ventures and its strategic Bitcoin investments.</li><li>The overall revenue for this period reached $129.5 million, marking a 3% year-over year increase, with a significant 16% rise in software license revenues, totaling $45 million.</li></ul>

This is our first report on MicroStrategy, a company at the forefront of enterprise analytics software.In the third quarter of 2023, the company revealed notable developments in both its primary software ventures and its strategic Bitcoin investments.The overall revenue for this period reached $129.5 million, marking a 3% year-over year increase, with a significant 16% rise in software license revenues, totaling $45 million.

MicroStrategy: Initiation of Coverage - Revolutionary AI and Cloud Surge! Why MicroStrategy Could Be Your Next Goldmine in Tech Investment! - Major Drivers

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities, Special Situation Investments

Dalius Tauraitis

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities

Special Situation Investments

Focus on event-driven trades and low risk arbitrage opportunities with short term catalysts

<ul><li>VIZIO faces antitrust concerns with Walmart acquisition; FTC scrutiny and potential challenges could impact deal closure and stock price.</li><li>Microstrategy trades at a 200%+ NAV premium, historically unsustainable, with potential for reversion amid hedging opportunities.</li><li>Liquidia's drug commercialization delayed by competitor's legal actions; tentative FDA approval secured, pending exclusivity expiration in May 2025.</li></ul>

VIZIO faces antitrust concerns with Walmart acquisition; FTC scrutiny and potential challenges could impact deal closure and stock price.Microstrategy trades at a 200%+ NAV premium, historically unsustainable, with potential for reversion amid hedging opportunities.Liquidia's drug commercialization delayed by competitor's legal actions; tentative FDA approval secured, pending exclusivity expiration in May 2025.

Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Antitrust, Asset Sales, Arbitrage, and Litigation Opportunities

<ul><li>SSI Tracking Portfolio decreased by 3.1% in October but is up 6.6% year-to-date, with detailed stock performance breakdown available.</li><li>Learning Technologies Group received multiple offers from General Atlantic, with a 10% spread remaining and a PUSU deadline on November 22.</li><li>Microstrategy plans a $42bn capital raise over three years to purchase more bitcoin, with a significant premium to NAV.</li></ul>

SSI Tracking Portfolio decreased by 3.1% in October but is up 6.6% year-to-date, with detailed stock performance breakdown available.Learning Technologies Group received multiple offers from General Atlantic, with a 10% spread remaining and a PUSU deadline on November 22.Microstrategy plans a $42bn capital raise over three years to purchase more bitcoin, with a significant premium to NAV.

SSI Weekly Newsletter: October Performance, Portfolio Updates, and Key Developments

United States

MicroStrategy Incorporated provides business intelligence software and related services.  The Company's technology platform enables departments and enterprises to deploy Web-based reporting and analysis solutions.  MicroStrategy also offers consulting, training, and support services.  Solutions are provided to retail, finance, telecommunications, insurance, dot-com, and healthcare industries.

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Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US)

Buy the Pullback Again; S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 Testing Confluence of Support

Buy the Pullback Again, Same as Our Election Day Report; S&P 500 $SPX, Nasdaq 100 $QQQ, Russell 2000 $IWM Testing Confluence of Support at 20-day...

Vermilion Research

Nasdaq100 December 2024 Forecasts (Part 2): APP & MSTR Poised for Entry; DLTR & SMCI Set for Exit

Fast-Exit has been announced and will be implemented for DLTR at the close of 15 November 2024 where the stock will be deleted from Nasdaq100 and...

Dimitris Ioannidis

MicroStrategy: Initiation of Coverage - Revolutionary AI and Cloud Surge! Why MicroStrategy Could Be Your Next Goldmine in Tech Investment! - Major Drivers

This is our first report on MicroStrategy, a company at the forefront of enterprise analytics software. In the third quarter of 2023, the company...

Baptista Research

Analyzing Active Portfolio Ideas: Antitrust, Asset Sales, Arbitrage, and Litigation Opportunities

VIZIO faces antitrust concerns with Walmart acquisition; FTC scrutiny and potential challenges could impact deal closure and stock price.

Special Situation Investments

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