Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

It's still early to understand the full implications of Wuhan's coronavirus outbreak, but we can look to the 2008 global financial collapse and current market conditions to get a good grasp of where the extremes are.  In brief, the current market oversupply limits the gap between the best-case and worst-case scenarios.  Without any coronavirus impact, the market should experience a decline of 0-5%.  If there is a serious impact from the coronavirus then a decline of no more than 10% can be expected.

It's still early to understand the full implications of Wuhan's coronavirus outbreak, but we can look to the 2008 global financial collapse and current market conditions to get a good grasp of where the extremes are.  In brief, the current market oversupply limits the gap between the best-case and worst-case scenarios.  Without any coronavirus impact, the market should experience a decline of 0-5%.  If there is a serious impact from the coronavirus then a decline of no more than 10% can be expected.

Chips Vs. Coronavirus: Best-Case & Worst-Case Scenarios

The Semiconductor Industry Association today announced that 2019 semiconductor revenues were 12.5% below those of 2018.  This number should come as no surprise to those who have been watching the market closely.  The market collapsed, as it always does, through 2019 and is likely to experience little growth, if any, in 2020.

The Semiconductor Industry Association today announced that 2019 semiconductor revenues were 12.5% below those of 2018.  This number should come as no surprise to those who have been watching the market closely.  The market collapsed, as it always does, through 2019 and is likely to experience little growth, if any, in 2020.

Semiconductor Market Year-End Tally: -12.5%

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic expansion could also grab some of the upward momentum. This includes; Energy, Materials, Industrial Manufacturing and the Transportation Sector and even Small-caps. A narrowing of breadth as we have all seen in the past does not typically end well.  Open the attached file to read our complete U.S. Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic expansion could also grab some of the upward momentum. This includes; Energy, Materials, Industrial Manufacturing and the Transportation Sector and even Small-caps. A narrowing of breadth as we have all seen in the past does not typically end well.  Open the attached file to read our complete U.S. Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish, but Extended

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this report.  In addition, we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary and Technology: Casinos &amp; Gaming, Large-Cap, Semiconductors, Mid-Cap, Semiconductors, Small-Cap, Software, Design Solutions.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

Monthly chip revenues declined slightly in November, according to the SIA.  This SmartKarma Insight examines recently-reported industry revenues to see how they compare with the long-term trend and to understand whether or not the current uptick is likely to continue.  The conclusion is that today's market is higher than it would be if the China-US trade war were not a concern.  A mid-2020 collapse is more than likely.

Monthly chip revenues declined slightly in November, according to the SIA.  This SmartKarma Insight examines recently-reported industry revenues to see how they compare with the long-term trend and to understand whether or not the current uptick is likely to continue.  The conclusion is that today's market is higher than it would be if the China-US trade war were not a concern.  A mid-2020 collapse is more than likely.

November Semiconductor Stats Good, But China Inventory Build May Be Misleading

United States

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

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Microchip Technology (MCHP US)

Chips Vs. Coronavirus: Best-Case & Worst-Case Scenarios

It's still early to understand the full implications of Wuhan's coronavirus outbreak, but we can look to the 2008 global financial collapse and...

Jim Handy

Semiconductor Market Year-End Tally: -12.5%

The Semiconductor Industry Association today announced that 2019 semiconductor revenues were 12.5% below those of 2018. This number should come as...

Jim Handy

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish, but Extended

We believe U.S. equities remain bullish but if they are to continue their ascent we would prefer that those areas also associated with economic...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Growth Surging Relative to Value

As we head into Q4 earnings season we remain bullish on the broad market. Our bullish outlook is supported by the themes highlighted in this...

Vermilion Research

November Semiconductor Stats Good, But China Inventory Build May Be Misleading

Monthly chip revenues declined slightly in November, according to the SIA. This SmartKarma Insight examines recently-reported industry revenues to...

Jim Handy

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