Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Branded PC makers' shares have been mostly lower in April, however Intel and Microsoft developments are providing strong signals for a future PC upgrade cycle into AI PCs.</li>
<li>Over 60% of Fortune 500 companies are now using Microsoft's CoPilot AI assistant; Intel expects the industry to exceed its prior forecast for AI PC shipments in 2024E.</li>
<li>CoPilot is the killer app that will trigger a global enterprise PC upgrade cycle; The next generation of CoPilot will be an edge AI app that will require powerful hardware.</li>
</ul>


Branded PC makers' shares have been mostly lower in April, however Intel and Microsoft developments are providing strong signals for a future PC upgrade cycle into AI PCs.
Over 60% of Fortune 500 companies are now using Microsoft's CoPilot AI assistant; Intel expects the industry to exceed its prior forecast for AI PC shipments in 2024E.
CoPilot is the killer app that will trigger a global enterprise PC upgrade cycle; The next generation of CoPilot will be an edge AI app that will require powerful hardware.


PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.</li>
<li>Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend</li>
<li>GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.</li>
</ul>


Our latest checks with VGA card makers, ABF substate companies and mining system thermal suppliers all indicate VGA card demand is weakening.
Sanction on Russia and Shenzhen lockdown also dampens the VGA card downward trend
GPU prices remain unchanged though VGA card prices continue to fall. VGA card makers' sales and profit premium from the ASP hike shrinks gradually.


More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

<ul>
<li>PC &amp; Server solutions names have fallen moderately from highs in June, however enterprise server company HPE soared 20% on AI strength.</li>
<li>Despite the market pullback from highs, we note that 2025E forward growth expectations have generally increased for the universe over the last month.</li>
<li>Latest Taiwan PC company revenues indicate healthy growth and HPE's management guided for Enterprise AI orders to accelerate.</li>
</ul>


PC &amp; Server solutions names have fallen moderately from highs in June, however enterprise server company HPE soared 20% on AI strength.
Despite the market pullback from highs, we note that 2025E forward growth expectations have generally increased for the universe over the last month.
Latest Taiwan PC company revenues indicate healthy growth and HPE's management guided for Enterprise AI orders to accelerate.


PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration

<ul>
<li>Asus's 1Q24 earnings beat consensus by 46% thanks to major increase in operating margin driven by costs optimization. Adjusted Asus brand Op profit rose 227% YoY and 98% QoQ.</li>
<li>Asus will host a major AI PC launch event May 21st, with additional AI PCs launched at Computex in Taiwan June 4th. Will feature <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/qualcomm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:969:1" rel="noopener">Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)</a> Snapdragon processors.</li>
<li>Asus confident in an PC upgrade cycle and has guided for sales to rise and margins to expand in the coming quarters. We maintain our Structural Long rating for Asus.</li>
</ul>


Asus's 1Q24 earnings beat consensus by 46% thanks to major increase in operating margin driven by costs optimization. Adjusted Asus brand Op profit rose 227% YoY and 98% QoQ.
Asus will host a major AI PC launch event May 21st, with additional AI PCs launched at Computex in Taiwan June 4th. Will feature Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US) Snapdragon processors.
Asus confident in an PC upgrade cycle and has guided for sales to rise and margins to expand in the coming quarters. We maintain our Structural Long rating for Asus.


Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle

Taiwan

Micro-Star International Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets motherboards and video graphic accelerate (VGA) cards.  The Company exports its products to Europe, North America, and other Asian countries.

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Micro Star International (2377 TT)

PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

CoPilot, as an edge AI app, will drive a global PC upgrade cycle with its next-gen version requiring advanced hardware.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

After several years of robust growth on mining demand, we are likely to see the turning point for VGA cards in 1H22. We see more data points in...

Henry King

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration

PC & Server Solution share prices have dipped from recent highs, however forward growth expectations have increased over the last month and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle

Asus beats earnings expectations by 46% in 1Q24, plans major AI PC launch event with Qualcomm processors, confident in PC upgrade cycle and future...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

​CoPilot, as an edge AI app, will drive a global PC upgrade cycle with its next-gen version requiring advanced hardware.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

More Evidences Show VGA Card Demand Is Weakening. Maintain Our Conservative View on VGA Card Market

After several years of robust growth on mining demand, we are likely to see the turning point for VGA cards in 1H22. We see more data points in...

Henry King

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

PC Monitor: Growth Expectations Have Increased Recently; HPE Signals Enterprise AI Acceleration

​PC & Server Solution share prices have dipped from recent highs, however forward growth expectations have increased over the last month and...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Asustek: Margin Beat, Guides More Upside; Qualcomm for AI PCs; Why Asus Confident in AI PC Up-Cycle

​Asus beats earnings expectations by 46% in 1Q24, plans major AI PC launch event with Qualcomm processors, confident in PC upgrade cycle and future...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

CoPilot, as an edge AI app, will drive a global PC upgrade cycle with its next-gen version requiring advanced hardware.

PC & Server Solution share prices have dipped from recent highs, however forward growth expectations have increased over the last month and...

Asus beats earnings expectations by 46% in 1Q24, plans major AI PC launch event with Qualcomm processors, confident in PC upgrade cycle and future...