Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On Friday after the close, the S&amp;P DJI Index Committee announced changes to the S&amp;P 100, S&amp;P500, S&amp;P MidCap400, and S&amp;P SmallCap600. Changes happen at the close 15 March 2024.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deckers-outdoor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3028:1" rel="noopener">Deckers Outdoor (DECK US)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zions-bancorporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9490:1" rel="noopener">Zions Bancorporation (ZION US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1538:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool Corp (WHR US)</a> in the S&amp;P500. 2 changes to 400, 6 to 600.</li>
<li>The immediate reaction was to send SMCI up 12.5%. That's shortsighted. It pays to count the pennies involved. There are a LOT of pennies.</li>
</ul>


On Friday after the close, the S&amp;P DJI Index Committee announced changes to the S&amp;P 100, S&amp;P500, S&amp;P MidCap400, and S&amp;P SmallCap600. Changes happen at the close 15 March 2024.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK US) replace Zions Bancorporation (ZION US) and Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) in the S&amp;P500. 2 changes to 400, 6 to 600.
The immediate reaction was to send SMCI up 12.5%. That's shortsighted. It pays to count the pennies involved. There are a LOT of pennies.


S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - It's Not The Trade You Think

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/super-micro-computer-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7921:1" rel="noopener">Super Micro Computer (SMCI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/deckers-outdoor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3028:1" rel="noopener">Deckers Outdoor (DECK US)</a> replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/whirlpool-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1538:1" rel="noopener">Whirlpool Corp (WHR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zions-bancorporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9490:1" rel="noopener">Zions Bancorporation (ZION US)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a> at the close on 15 March.</li>
<li>There are a bunch of inclusions, deletions and migrations across the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a>, the S&amp;P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.</li>
<li>The largest flows will be in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> adds and the largest impact in the adds to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.</li>
</ul>



Super Micro Computer (SMCI US) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK US) replace Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) and Zions Bancorporation (ZION US) in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX at the close on 15 March.
There are a bunch of inclusions, deletions and migrations across the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX), the S&amp;P Midcap 400 Index, and the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.
The largest flows will be in the S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) adds and the largest impact in the adds to the S&amp;P SmallCap 600 Index.


S&P500 Index Rebalance: SPCY Additions & Large Impact

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.</li>
<li>We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.</li>
<li>After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels </li>
</ul>


The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 


Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

<ul>
<li>The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)</a> and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.</li>
<li>Another week of inflows for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US)</a> ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!</li>
</ul>


The last week was a very busy one. The coming week has some announcements and implementations but is a relatively quieter one.
The SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and STAR100 Index changes for March will be implemented at the close on Friday, the 8th.
Another week of inflows for the iShares Emerging Markets ex-China (EMXC US) ETF as creations cross US$2bn for 2024. ETF AUM has gone from US$420m in 2021 to US$11bn now!


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

<p>We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here -- barring improvements. At the same time we are not seeing widespread breakdowns and the major averages are still consolidating within a 1-month horizontal range. As long as this consolidation continues, a neutral outlook is appropriate. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within health care staffing, silver, and platinum miners, and Electric and Gas utilities.</p>

We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here -- barring improvements. At the same time we are not seeing widespread breakdowns and the major averages are still consolidating within a 1-month horizontal range. As long as this consolidation continues, a neutral outlook is appropriate. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within health care staffing, silver, and platinum miners, and Electric and Gas utilities.

S&P 500 Consolidating Despite Negative Signals

United States

MGE Energy, Inc. is a public utility holding company.  The Company's principal subsidiary generates and distributes electricity to customers in Dane County, Wisconsin.  MGE also purchases, transports, and distributes natural gas in several Wisconsin counties.

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Mge Energy Inc (MGEE US)

S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - It's Not The Trade You Think

The S&P DJI Index Committee announced the March index rebals. Everybody is looking at SMCI because it has run hard til now. That's missing the...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 Index Rebalance: SPCY Additions & Large Impact

There are bunch of adds, deletes and migrations for the SnP 500/400/600 indices in March. The largest inflows are on the SP500 adds but the largest...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P 500 Consolidating Despite Negative Signals

We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here --...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

S&P 500/400/600 Index Rebal - It's Not The Trade You Think

​The S&P DJI Index Committee announced the March index rebals. Everybody is looking at SMCI because it has run hard til now. That's missing the...

Travis Lundy

S&P500 Index Rebalance: SPCY Additions & Large Impact

There are bunch of adds, deletes and migrations for the SnP 500/400/600 indices in March. The largest inflows are on the SP500 adds but the largest...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities $XLU to Overweight; Many Indexes Testing Resistance $SPX $DJI $IJH $IWM $XRT $EEM; Expecting SPX to Roll Over; $NVDA and $SMH...

Vermilion Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50/100, FXI, NIFTY/NEXT50, S&P500, KOSPI, Goodman, Ecopro BM

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

S&P 500 Consolidating Despite Negative Signals

We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here --...

Vermilion Research

The S&P DJI Index Committee announced the March index rebals. Everybody is looking at SMCI because it has run hard til now. That's missing the...