Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The world does not need another opinion on the Vision Pro, the Apple mixed reality device whose launch coincided with Meta earnings, but I will share mine so I can understand my thought process in the future.</li><li>I have the right to be wrong. The revenue share of Meta’s FRL is so small it might seem redundant to give it so much limelight.</li><li>But, directionally, it’s an important category for the company. With a launch of this scale, the hyperbole and sensationalism rhyme with things we’ve seen in decades past.</li></ul>

The world does not need another opinion on the Vision Pro, the Apple mixed reality device whose launch coincided with Meta earnings, but I will share mine so I can understand my thought process in the future.I have the right to be wrong. The revenue share of Meta’s FRL is so small it might seem redundant to give it so much limelight.But, directionally, it’s an important category for the company. With a launch of this scale, the hyperbole and sensationalism rhyme with things we’ve seen in decades past.

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

<ul><li>While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.</li><li>The stock was at ~$70 in December, 2022. Today, it closed at $232.</li><li>Before I get to my highlights from today’s call, let me first mention that I am no longer a shareholder of Spotify as I sold my shares today at $243</li></ul>

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.The stock was at ~$70 in December, 2022. Today, it closed at $232.Before I get to my highlights from today’s call, let me first mention that I am no longer a shareholder of Spotify as I sold my shares today at $243

Research from Value Investing, Value Investing

Value Investing

Research from Value Investing

I am a value investor. "Value", as defined in Value Investing, is simply the act of buying something for less than its worth. I treat my equity investment as a loan to the business - where the priority is to get back my principal in full, rather than achieving maximum yield. I consider my equity investment as a slightly higher risk loan extended to the business with slightly more accommodative loan covenants - hence justifying a slightly higher yield. While I identify as a value investor and cover all stocks and macro topics indiscriminately, most of my research will have an ASEAN bent as that’s where I’m geographically located.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)</li><li>Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.</li><li>This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.</li></ul>

The red &amp; blue arrows highlight the apples-to-apples comparisons to be made between the respective bars (more details below)Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022.This article is a repeat of that for all the stocks I had written about in 2023.

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.</li><li>The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.</li><li>These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front line</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &amp; Meta”) all announced QoQ increases in their 3Q capex.The aggregate number topped US$37bn, representing the fourth highest quarterly spending in history.These companies are committed to ramping up spending to remain competitive at the AI front lineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

<ul><li>Since our downgrade report on 14 Aug, we have seen a continuous decline on Innolight’s share price by more than 23%.</li><li>Our current view on the stock is becoming increasingly favourable, driven by: 1) continuous strong momentum observed in building up AI infrastructure globally; and 2) quick uptake seen in downstream application market (e.g., AI-powered Ads adopted by Meta, Google and Amazon, GitHub copilot by Microsoft).</li><li>In addition, companies within the AI hardware value chain start to report strong earnings. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Since our downgrade report on 14 Aug, we have seen a continuous decline on Innolight’s share price by more than 23%.Our current view on the stock is becoming increasingly favourable, driven by: 1) continuous strong momentum observed in building up AI infrastructure globally; and 2) quick uptake seen in downstream application market (e.g., AI-powered Ads adopted by Meta, Google and Amazon, GitHub copilot by Microsoft).In addition, companies within the AI hardware value chain start to report strong earnings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Innolight (300308 CH) – Expect Higher Contribution from AI Revenue in 3Q

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)

The Reality of Mixed Reality

I have the right to be wrong. The revenue share of Meta’s FRL is so small it might seem redundant to give it so much limelight.

Investment Talk

Spotify 4Q'23 Update

While not exactly Meta-like twists and turns, Spotify’s rise from the ashes of late 2022 perhaps slipped through many investors’ mind.

MBI Deep Dives

Value Investing Substack Portfolio Review | Annual Letter 2023

Around this time last year , I did a portfolio performance review based on all the stocks I had written about in 2022. This article is a repeat of...

Value Investing

Technology (Hardware/Semi): CSP3 & Meta Ramp up Spending to Stay at the AI Front Line

Post 3Q earnings, investors have regained confidence in AI capital spending for the next few quarters. Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet/Meta (“CSP3 &...

CMB International

Innolight (300308 CH) – Expect Higher Contribution from AI Revenue in 3Q

Our current view on the stock is becoming increasingly favourable, driven by: 1) continuous strong momentum observed in building up AI...

CMB International

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