Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE, EM, and ACWI ex-US indexes. However, we believe the USD will hold support at 95, and price and RS downtrends will remain intact for the aforementioned broad MSCI indexes. In other words, the current reflex rally in these indexes will probably be short-lived.  We provide a broad overview of major markets and highlight attractive defensive groups and stocks withing Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Manufacturing (primarily Aerospace &amp; Defense Groups).

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New Zealand's vertically integrated electricity generator/retailers, or "gentailers", are high-quality businesses. The most attractive at present is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/13136" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13136:1">Contact Energy Ltd (CEN NZ)</a>, which is cheaper than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4327" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4327:1">Meridian Energy Ltd (MEL NZ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/9933" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9933:1">Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ)</a>, lower-risk than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4227" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4227:1">Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE NZ)</a>, and better-quality than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/11489" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11489:1">Trustpower Ltd (TPW NZ)</a>, in our opinion. While the near-term outlook is depressed by generation oversupply and intense retail competition, Contact should increase earnings on cost reductions, changes to transmission pricing, and the eventual recovery of the wholesale price. It trades on a low EBITDA multiple, and one that's based on current depressed earnings. We expect the discount to our fair value estimate to close as earnings improve, potentially aided by an expansion of the firm's EBITDA multiple towards peers. In the meantime, investors receive a relatively attractive dividend yield of around 5%, with material upside in coming years, predominantly from a higher dividend payout ratio. We believe the market is too focused on soft near-term fundamentals, providing a good opportunity for patient investors.Analysts: Adrian Atkins and Angus Hewitt

New Zealand's vertically integrated electricity generator/retailers, or "gentailers", are high-quality businesses. The most attractive at present is Contact Energy Ltd (CEN NZ), which is cheaper than Meridian Energy Ltd (MEL NZ) and Mercury NZ Ltd (MCY NZ), lower-risk than Genesis Energy Ltd (GNE NZ), and better-quality than Trustpower Ltd (TPW NZ), in our opinion. While the near-term outlook is depressed by generation oversupply and intense retail competition, Contact should increase earnings on cost reductions, changes to transmission pricing, and the eventual recovery of the wholesale price. It trades on a low EBITDA multiple, and one that's based on current depressed earnings. We expect the discount to our fair value estimate to close as earnings improve, potentially aided by an expansion of the firm's EBITDA multiple towards peers. In the meantime, investors receive a relatively attractive dividend yield of around 5%, with material upside in coming years, predominantly from a higher dividend payout ratio. We believe the market is too focused on soft near-term fundamentals, providing a good opportunity for patient investors.Analysts: Adrian Atkins and Angus Hewitt

Don't Be Shortsighted on New Zealand's Oversupplied Energy Market

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Global Ex-US Rally Underway - But Will It Last?

Coming off of oversold levels, the recent USD pullback to the prior breakout level over the last week has led to a reprieve for broad MSCI EAFE,...

Vermilion Research

Don't Be Shortsighted on New Zealand's Oversupplied Energy Market

New Zealand's vertically integrated electricity generator/retailers, or "gentailers", are high-quality businesses. The most attractive at present...

Morningstar, Inc.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)