New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record 1H24 operating result for its New Zealand operations, with strong retail margin growth underpinning the increase in earnings.</li><li>Whilst ongoing opex challenges took some of the shine off, the outlook for the remainder of FY24 is positive as MEL and the rest of the industry await the NZAS decision (which will hopefully be in the next few months).</li><li>Forecasts, target price, and our investment view are little changed. UNDERPERFORM.</li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record 1H24 operating result for its New Zealand operations, with strong retail margin growth underpinning the increase in earnings.Whilst ongoing opex challenges took some of the shine off, the outlook for the remainder of FY24 is positive as MEL and the rest of the industry await the NZAS decision (which will hopefully be in the next few months).Forecasts, target price, and our investment view are little changed. UNDERPERFORM.

Meridian Energy - Sun Shines on Electrification — 1H24 Result

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) has closed out 1H24 with a (slightly) soft month operationally, due mainly to below average hydro generation.</li><li>Despite the soft finish, we expect 1H24 to come in ahead of 1H23 with the key drivers higher wholesale electricity prices and retail margins. </li><li>Opex remains a concern and is running +2% above the top of MEL's FY24 guidance range. </li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) has closed out 1H24 with a (slightly) soft month operationally, due mainly to below average hydro generation.Despite the soft finish, we expect 1H24 to come in ahead of 1H23 with the key drivers higher wholesale electricity prices and retail margins. Opex remains a concern and is running +2% above the top of MEL's FY24 guidance range. 

Meridian Energy - Treading Water — 1H24 Operating Statistics

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.</li><li>Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.</li><li>With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. </li></ul>

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices and relieve winter 2025 anxiety.Energy Margin analysis indicates Mercury (MCY) had the strongest month operationally of the generator/retailers, with Meridian Energy (MEL) still held back by the high cost hedging it took out.With Methanex recommencing operations, November 2024 should be a more representative month for the generator/retailers. 

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.</li><li>This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.</li><li>Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.</li></ul></div></div></div></div>

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.This has the potential to give a much needed injection of energy into the downbeat NZ economy.Paired with all but certain continued interest rate cuts, the contours of an economic recovery are starting to take shape.

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

<ul><li>September 2024 was a strong month for some, but a soft month for others.</li><li>Replenishment of the hydro lakes was a welcome relief for the sector, but hedge contracts designed to protect downside risk from ongoing dry conditions has seen Meridian Energy (MEL) struggle.</li><li>Contact Energy (CEN) and Mercury (MCY) have benefitted the most in the short-term from the rapid change in conditions. </li></ul>

September 2024 was a strong month for some, but a soft month for others.Replenishment of the hydro lakes was a welcome relief for the sector, but hedge contracts designed to protect downside risk from ongoing dry conditions has seen Meridian Energy (MEL) struggle.Contact Energy (CEN) and Mercury (MCY) have benefitted the most in the short-term from the rapid change in conditions. 

Power Points - Water Works Wonders​​​​​​​ — October 2024

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Meridian Energy - Sun Shines on Electrification — 1H24 Result

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record 1H24 operating result for its New Zealand operations, with strong retail margin growth underpinning the...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy - Treading Water — 1H24 Operating Statistics

Meridian Energy (MEL) has closed out 1H24 with a (slightly) soft month operationally, due mainly to below average hydro generation. Despite the...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices...

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Water Works Wonders — October 2024

These two stocks are our preferred of the large generator/retailers and along with Manawa Energy (MNW) are rated OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Meridian Energy - Sun Shines on Electrification — 1H24 Result

Meridian Energy (MEL) delivered a record 1H24 operating result for its New Zealand operations, with strong retail margin growth underpinning the...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy - Treading Water — 1H24 Operating Statistics

Meridian Energy (MEL) has closed out 1H24 with a (slightly) soft month operationally, due mainly to below average hydro generation. Despite the...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Hydro Recovery Continues — November 2024

October 2024 was another strong hydro inflow month, with lake levels rising well above average, helping to suppress wholesale electricity prices...

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Moving Out of the Slow Lane - Fast-Track Approvals Welcome News

The government has announced 149 projects to be included in its Fast-Track Approvals Bill, expected to pass later this year.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Water Works Wonders​​​​​​​ — October 2024

These two stocks are our preferred of the large generator/retailers and along with Manawa Energy (MNW) are rated OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Water Works Wonders — October 2024