New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>North Island generators to deliver the growth: We anticipate most generator/retailers will lift 1H23 EBITDAF earnings</li><li>Outlook commentary should be positive from GNE and MCY, less so from CEN</li><li>Key themes likely to be development pipelines, inflation, and NZAS</li></ul>

North Island generators to deliver the growth: We anticipate most generator/retailers will lift 1H23 EBITDAF earningsOutlook commentary should be positive from GNE and MCY, less so from CENKey themes likely to be development pipelines, inflation, and NZAS

Electricity Sector: NI Hydro Powers 1H23 Sector Earnings

<ul><li>December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditions</li><li>Looking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developments</li><li>We see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery</li></ul>

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA] prices averaged just NZ$19/MWh) with North Island hydro generator’s Mercury (MCY) and Genesis Energy (GNE) having the best of the conditionsLooking ahead to 2023, we expect many of the themes that dominated 2022 to continue, with a key focus on new developmentsWe see share price risks to the downside, with the electricity sector’s defensive characteristics less beneficial during a market recovery

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1H23 EBITDAF expected to be up on 1H22 courtesy of record future contract close out gains</li><li>December 2022 operating performance solid, but near record low wholesale electricity prices</li><li>Earnings outlook improves modestly as future winter wholesale electricity prices strengthen </li></ul>

1H23 EBITDAF expected to be up on 1H22 courtesy of record future contract close out gainsDecember 2022 operating performance solid, but near record low wholesale electricity pricesEarnings outlook improves modestly as future winter wholesale electricity prices strengthen 

Meridian Energy: Closing Out a Solid 1H23

<ul><li>Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highs</li><li>Valuations ease, but sector remains over-valued</li><li>Wind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers</li></ul>

Unit 5 maintenance and hydro combine to push renewable generation to fresh highsValuations ease, but sector remains over-valuedWind turbine demand softens in the face of rising prices, leaving window of opportunity for NZ developers

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

<ul><li>Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium prices</li><li>MEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply more</li><li>Big earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact</li></ul>

Whilst NZAS will have to pay more for its electricity it is compensated by strong aluminium pricesMEL is in the box seat to supply less, with CEN, MCY and MNW to supply moreBig earnings uplift for MEL from CY2025, CEN and MNW an earnings hit, MCY a negative value impact

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Electricity Sector: NI Hydro Powers 1H23 Sector Earnings

1H23 is all about record North Island hydro generation, powering both Genesis Energy (GNE) and Mercury (MCY) to record half year results; Combined,...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Looking Ahead to 2023 — January 2023

December rounded out 2022 with another month of high renewable electricity generation (96%) and low wholesale electricity prices (Otahuhu [OTA]...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy: Closing Out a Solid 1H23

Following the release of its December 2022 operating statistics we estimate Meridian Energy (MEL) has generated 1H23 EBITDAF of NZ$427m, an...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Record Renewables — December 2022

The story of November 2022 was the record high 97% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources, well north of the previous record of...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector: NZAS Set to Stay, But Will Have to Pay

NZAS is set to remain open as the focus on decarbonisation means the economics of hydro-backed aluminium smelters have never looked better; We have...

Forsyth Barr

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