Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global brand ranking.
At home, online companies like Zozo and Mercari are also climbing the rankings.

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global brand ranking.
At home, online companies like Zozo and Mercari are also climbing the rankings.

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Director, Pearl Hill Advisors

Nicholas Tanner

Director

Pearl Hill Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade in second hand goods with each other. Growth has been phenomenal. In the year to 6/15, Mercari had revenue of Y4.2bn, three years later (6/18) this had risen to Y35.7bn. This growth carries on, first half revenue this year to December 2018 rose 45% to Y23.7bn. It has begun an operation in the US, currently loss making, and has just introduced “Merpay”, a prepaid card incorporated into one’s mobile phone along the lines of Suica that allows users to purchase goods and pay bills. Funds can be deposited following a sale on Mercari’s site or transferred from a bank. Revenue will probably continue to grow at a rapid pace and whilst there are some that will jump on board, it is impossible to come up with any sensible valuation that can really justify a purchase here. There is no p.e.r. and the company will be loss making for the next couple of years. Its market cap of Y440bn means that it is trading on perhaps 6x 6/20 sales. On top of this, there are risks with regards to the viability of its US operation. Management appear to be aware to this and have set certain time limits for a turn around. There are many BUYS out on this name, thematically it has much going for it, but the valuation leaves us cold.

Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

Astonishing as it may seem but 80% of all retail transactions in Japan are made with cash and 88% if you include the cash stored in so-called 'smart wallets' – essentially cash stored in plastic.Just like much of Japan's service sector, payments is a classic example of the sector's capacity to resist change, resist still more and finally, with much knocking of heads in Kasumigaseki, race to modernise in a very short period of time.That Japan will switch to cashless payments in the next three years is not in doubt – not least because of Japan's fear of Chinese payments systems gaining too much share – but with so many competing payments services available and still being launched, the big question is who will win. Given their deep data, consumer loyalty and brand names, it is likely that the current kings of loyalty points will take the biggest share alongside some of the biggest retailers meaning <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/31" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank (9434 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1089" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1089:1">NTT Docomo (9437 JP)</a> and the three convenience store schemes backed by banks.While the use of cash may decline, households still keep an average of ¥830,000 in cash (8% of GDP in total) under the futon and are unlikely to change that particular habit given the frequency of earthquakes and other natural disasters.

Astonishing as it may seem but 80% of all retail transactions in Japan are made with cash and 88% if you include the cash stored in so-called 'smart wallets' – essentially cash stored in plastic.Just like much of Japan's service sector, payments is a classic example of the sector's capacity to resist change, resist still more and finally, with much knocking of heads in Kasumigaseki, race to modernise in a very short period of time.That Japan will switch to cashless payments in the next three years is not in doubt – not least because of Japan's fear of Chinese payments systems gaining too much share – but with so many competing payments services available and still being launched, the big question is who will win. Given their deep data, consumer loyalty and brand names, it is likely that the current kings of loyalty points will take the biggest share alongside some of the biggest retailers meaning Rakuten (4755 JP), Softbank (9434 JP), NTT Docomo (9437 JP) and the three convenience store schemes backed by banks.While the use of cash may decline, households still keep an average of ¥830,000 in cash (8% of GDP in total) under the futon and are unlikely to change that particular habit given the frequency of earthquakes and other natural disasters.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/068/original/2019-02-17_10-57-33.png?1550368676" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79068"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>PEAK CYCLE EARNINGS - In our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-winter-results-revisions-flash-cycle-earnings-peak-was-december-26th" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28022">Winter Results &amp; Revisions Flash</a> Insight of yesterday, we noted that Japanese listed corporate earnings, after nine consecutive 'up' quarters, peaked on December 26th, two days before the market reached a twenty-month low having declined 22.5% in the preceding three months. Forecast earnings peaked on November 7th and have led reported earnings to the downside since August last year.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/069/original/2019-02-17_11-06-28.png?1550369207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79069"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>ONE-YEAR LAG - Reported and forecast earnings are a lagging indicator and, in this instance, lagged by just under one year. Our preferred leading indicator, the Results &amp; Revision Score which includes earnings momentum factors, peaked on 11th November 2017, 44 trading days ahead of the peak in the Market Composite. As of Friday's close and with 99% of this quarters' announcements made, the Results &amp; Revisions Score is at a new 21-month. The score has now fallen by 70% and has halved since October 26th last year. We will cover the outlook in more detail in our upcoming quarterly Results and Revision review. However, the last two cycles (2009 and 2016) saw 'trough' scores of -9.6 and -2.1, respectively. There is ample room on the downside as export volumes continue to decline and the increase in the consumption tax in October tips Japan into a recession by year-end.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/070/original/2019-02-17_11-59-44.png?1550372400" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79070"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>SIDEWAYS - The market has moved sideways through the reporting window rising 0.7% in Yen terms and falling 0.7% in US$ terms. The weakness in the currency has helped offset the slide in profits.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry (Japan Post). We would underweight the Auto and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and in Japan later in the year. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, including brief comments on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5439" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5439:1">Subaru (7270 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1301" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1301:1">Infomart (2492 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16576" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16576:1">Lion (4912 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4102" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4102:1">Nissan Chemical (4021 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3077" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3077:1">Keyence (6861 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6267" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6267:1">Suruga Bank (8358 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27149" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1">Mercari (4385 JP)</a>.

Source: Japan AnalyticsPEAK CYCLE EARNINGS - In our Winter Results &amp; Revisions Flash Insight of yesterday, we noted that Japanese listed corporate earnings, after nine consecutive 'up' quarters, peaked on December 26th, two days before the market reached a twenty-month low having declined 22.5% in the preceding three months. Forecast earnings peaked on November 7th and have led reported earnings to the downside since August last year.Source: Japan AnalyticsONE-YEAR LAG - Reported and forecast earnings are a lagging indicator and, in this instance, lagged by just under one year. Our preferred leading indicator, the Results &amp; Revision Score which includes earnings momentum factors, peaked on 11th November 2017, 44 trading days ahead of the peak in the Market Composite. As of Friday's close and with 99% of this quarters' announcements made, the Results &amp; Revisions Score is at a new 21-month. The score has now fallen by 70% and has halved since October 26th last year. We will cover the outlook in more detail in our upcoming quarterly Results and Revision review. However, the last two cycles (2009 and 2016) saw 'trough' scores of -9.6 and -2.1, respectively. There is ample room on the downside as export volumes continue to decline and the increase in the consumption tax in October tips Japan into a recession by year-end.Source: Japan AnalyticsSIDEWAYS - The market has moved sideways through the reporting window rising 0.7% in Yen terms and falling 0.7% in US$ terms. The weakness in the currency has helped offset the slide in profits.MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry (Japan Post). We would underweight the Auto and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and in Japan later in the year. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance over the last two weeks, and, in addition to our regular roundup of company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, including brief comments on Subaru (7270 JP), Infomart (2492 JP), Lion (4912 JP), Nissan Chemical (4021 JP), Keyence (6861 JP), Suruga Bank (8358 JP), and Mercari (4385 JP). 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/000/original/2019-02-16_10-06-13.png?1550279195" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79000"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>WORST Q SINCE AUTUMN 2016 - Since our last Results Flash in November - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-autumn-results-revisions-flash-flatlining-weakest-quarter-in-two-years" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:25804">Japan: Autumn Results &amp; Revisions Flash - Flatlining + Weakest Quarter in Two Years</a> - the operating and net profits of Japanese listed companies have peaked and declined by 2.0% and 7.5%, respectively while forecasts for the same have fallen by 1.7% and 4.1%. The stock market's initial reaction to the peaking of earnings for this cycle was a sharp 15.5% decline which climaxed on Christmas Day. A softer tone from the US Federal Reserve and a weaker Yen have helped restore a degree of confidence and the recent 12.1% rally has taken aggregate market capitalisation back to early-December.  As a result of the downturn in profits, trailing and forecast earnings multiples have reverted to August 2018 levels and can no longer be considered a bargain. For the restoration of a 'normal' market multiple (16.7x), either share prices have to rise by 18% (all else equal) or net income has to decline by a further 16%. Our money is on the latter being the more likely outcome.<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/004/original/2019-02-16_10-43-29.png?1550281425" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79004"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>ROLLING TTMs - Our series of rolling trailing-twelve-month (TTM) quarterly aggregates of all listed companies confirm the profit peak. Revenues are still increasing by 5-6% a year, and by 1-2% a quarter, however, the rate of increase is slowing and the implied growth rate for the current quarter is just 0.5%. Operating Income declined by 1.9% qoq in the quarter just declared and will be flat this quarter, although, as few companies revise full-year forecasts with Q3 earnings results, this forecast should be considered optimistic. Operating margins are forecast to be 33bps lower than in TTM-3. TTM Net Income fell by 8% qoq, although yoy growth is still a positive 3%. The 1.6% forecast growth for this quarter implies that the most recent quarter had an excessive level of write-offs. We are not so sanguine.SECTOR BREAKDOWNS - In the DETAIL section below we shall examine the trends in earnings results and forecasts for the 30 sectors that make up our Market Composite.

Source: Japan AnalyticsWORST Q SINCE AUTUMN 2016 - Since our last Results Flash in November - Japan: Autumn Results &amp; Revisions Flash - Flatlining + Weakest Quarter in Two Years - the operating and net profits of Japanese listed companies have peaked and declined by 2.0% and 7.5%, respectively while forecasts for the same have fallen by 1.7% and 4.1%. The stock market's initial reaction to the peaking of earnings for this cycle was a sharp 15.5% decline which climaxed on Christmas Day. A softer tone from the US Federal Reserve and a weaker Yen have helped restore a degree of confidence and the recent 12.1% rally has taken aggregate market capitalisation back to early-December.  As a result of the downturn in profits, trailing and forecast earnings multiples have reverted to August 2018 levels and can no longer be considered a bargain. For the restoration of a 'normal' market multiple (16.7x), either share prices have to rise by 18% (all else equal) or net income has to decline by a further 16%. Our money is on the latter being the more likely outcome.
Source: Japan Analytics
ROLLING TTMs - Our series of rolling trailing-twelve-month (TTM) quarterly aggregates of all listed companies confirm the profit peak. Revenues are still increasing by 5-6% a year, and by 1-2% a quarter, however, the rate of increase is slowing and the implied growth rate for the current quarter is just 0.5%. Operating Income declined by 1.9% qoq in the quarter just declared and will be flat this quarter, although, as few companies revise full-year forecasts with Q3 earnings results, this forecast should be considered optimistic. Operating margins are forecast to be 33bps lower than in TTM-3. TTM Net Income fell by 8% qoq, although yoy growth is still a positive 3%. The 1.6% forecast growth for this quarter implies that the most recent quarter had an excessive level of write-offs. We are not so sanguine.SECTOR BREAKDOWNS - In the DETAIL section below we shall examine the trends in earnings results and forecasts for the 30 sectors that make up our Market Composite.  

Japan: Winter Results & Revisions Flash - Cycle Earnings Peak Was December 26th

Japan

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

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Mercari (4385 JP)

Uniqlo Japan’s Most Valuable Retail Brand

Interbrand’s annual valuation of top brands saw growing numbers of Japanese firms in retail and FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods) enter its global...

Michael Causton

Mercari (4385) A Great Business but over Priced

Established in 2013, this has been a huge success story in Japan. The company operates the largest C to C mobile app that allows customers to trade...

Pearl Hill Advisors

Who Will Win the Cashless Wars in Japan?

Astonishing as it may seem but 80% of all retail transactions in Japan are made with cash and 88% if you include the cash stored in so-called...

Michael Causton

Japan: Fortnightly Update: Past the Peak

PEAK CYCLE EARNINGS - In our Winter Results & Revisions Flash Insight of yesterday, we noted that Japanese listed corporate earnings, after...

Campbell Gunn

Japan: Winter Results & Revisions Flash - Cycle Earnings Peak Was December 26th

WORST Q SINCE AUTUMN 2016 - Since our last Results Flash in November - Japan: Autumn Results & Revisions Flash - Flatlining + Weakest Quarter...

Campbell Gunn

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