Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Topix inclusion could generate some solid domestic passive buying interest, but we think the fundamentals remain Bearish</li>
<li>Mercari's GMV growth in Japan is slowing sharply. We see higher promotional costs impacting margins as competition with PayPay Flea market heats up</li>
<li>We think that street estimates are too high and we don't see a reason why the stock should be trading at substantial premium to Z Holdings</li>
</ul>


Topix inclusion could generate some solid domestic passive buying interest, but we think the fundamentals remain Bearish
Mercari's GMV growth in Japan is slowing sharply. We see higher promotional costs impacting margins as competition with PayPay Flea market heats up
We think that street estimates are too high and we don't see a reason why the stock should be trading at substantial premium to Z Holdings


Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Recently, the e-commerce retail market for goods had had more consistent growth than the overall online market, which saw a contraction in BtoB transactions during Covid. </li>
<li>In 2021, online sales of physical goods continued to grow, despite a correction following the spike in sales in 2020 when sales rose 21.7%.</li>
<li>Merchandise sales are set to grow by a similar amount in 2022, with food, fashion and consumer gadgets the highest growth categories.</li>
</ul>


Recently, the e-commerce retail market for goods had had more consistent growth than the overall online market, which saw a contraction in BtoB transactions during Covid. 
In 2021, online sales of physical goods continued to grow, despite a correction following the spike in sales in 2020 when sales rose 21.7%.
Merchandise sales are set to grow by a similar amount in 2022, with food, fashion and consumer gadgets the highest growth categories.


Japanese Merchandise E-Commerce to Grow 6.6% in 2022

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Mercari’s 3Q results underwhelmed with both revenue (-4.5%) and OP (¥2.9bn loss vs. a predicted ¥1.0bn profit) missed. </li>
<li>Guidance was also weak and problems with rising fraudulent transactions in Japan and low tax reporting thresholds for sellers in the US are headwinds. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, the drastic fall in the stock price appears to have gotten far ahead of these problems and ignores the bright future of the company in our view.</li>
</ul>


Mercari’s 3Q results underwhelmed with both revenue (-4.5%) and OP (¥2.9bn loss vs. a predicted ¥1.0bn profit) missed. 
Guidance was also weak and problems with rising fraudulent transactions in Japan and low tax reporting thresholds for sellers in the US are headwinds. 
Nevertheless, the drastic fall in the stock price appears to have gotten far ahead of these problems and ignores the bright future of the company in our view.


Mercari – Problems, Problems, But We Are Getting Bulled Up Anyway

Telco/Internet specialist

Kirk Boodry

Redex Research

<ul>
<li>FY22 EBITDA guidance is disappointing as strategic investments accelerate yet again and leaving investors uncertain on whether previous guidance for FY23 can be met</li>
<li>We think ZHD's FY23 target of ¥ 390bn in EBITDA is reachable but a meaningful beat, which is factored into consensus, is less likely</li>
<li>So FY22 is another transition year but without the excitement on the potential for LINE as an alternative theme. It is better to be on the sidelines. </li>
</ul>


FY22 EBITDA guidance is disappointing as strategic investments accelerate yet again and leaving investors uncertain on whether previous guidance for FY23 can be met
We think ZHD's FY23 target of ¥ 390bn in EBITDA is reachable but a meaningful beat, which is factored into consensus, is less likely
So FY22 is another transition year but without the excitement on the potential for LINE as an alternative theme. It is better to be on the sidelines. 


Z Holdings Q4 21 Results Reaction: Growth Pushed Back a Year; Downgrade to Neutral

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/one-store-4672b817-5076-408e-bcad-1a3e48b03c2a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35800:1" rel="noopener">ONE Store (ONE KS)</a> is looking to raise up to US$228m in its Korean IPO.</li>
<li>One Store delayed its bookbuild by two weeks, with book building slated to run between 9th-10th May 2022. Listing, as well, has been pushed back to end May.</li>
<li>Peers have slightly corrected since our last note and in our view, from a historical perspective, the low end seems justified.</li>
</ul>



ONE Store (ONE KS) is looking to raise up to US$228m in its Korean IPO.
One Store delayed its bookbuild by two weeks, with book building slated to run between 9th-10th May 2022. Listing, as well, has been pushed back to end May.
Peers have slightly corrected since our last note and in our view, from a historical perspective, the low end seems justified.


One Store IPO - Refiling Updates, No Change to Price Tag

Japan

Mercari, Inc. operates as an electronic commercial company. The Company offers electronic commercial software, operation management, marketing planning, and other marketplace services. Mercari serves customers worldwide.

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Mercari (4385 JP)

Mercari (4385 JP) | Time to Flee

We are bearish on the outlook for Mercari's Japan business. Promotion costs are rising and margins are likely to come under further pressure. We...

Mark Chadwick

Japanese Merchandise E-Commerce to Grow 6.6% in 2022

Japan's e-commerce market continued to grow in 2021 despite the surge in 2020 (up 21%) and is forecast to grow further in 2022, with food one of...

Michael Causton

Mercari – Problems, Problems, But We Are Getting Bulled Up Anyway

Mercari is struggling with increasing fraudulent transactions in Japan and excessively tight tax reporting changes in the US but valuations have...

Mio Kato

Z Holdings Q4 21 Results Reaction: Growth Pushed Back a Year; Downgrade to Neutral

Guidance for FY22 profitability growth is disappointing and whilst targets for the following year are probably achievable, a material beat is off...

Kirk Boodry

One Store IPO - Refiling Updates, No Change to Price Tag

ONE Store (ONE KS) is looking to raise up to US$228m in its Korean IPO. One Store delayed its bookbuild by two weeks, with book building slated to...

Clarence Chu

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