Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Medpace, in their second quarter 2024 earnings call, provided a detailed overview of their financial and operational performance.</li><li>The company faced challenges in the quarter, notably with net new business awards entering backlog decreasing by 4.1% year over year to $551 million, influenced by higher cancellations.</li><li>Despite this setback in the backlog, Medpace reported a revenue increase of 14.6% year-over-year, totaling $528.1 million for the quarter.</li></ul>

Medpace, in their second quarter 2024 earnings call, provided a detailed overview of their financial and operational performance.The company faced challenges in the quarter, notably with net new business awards entering backlog decreasing by 4.1% year over year to $551 million, influenced by higher cancellations.Despite this setback in the backlog, Medpace reported a revenue increase of 14.6% year-over-year, totaling $528.1 million for the quarter.

Medpace Holdings Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Business Strategy

<ul><li>Medpace's financial results for the first quarter of 2023 highlight a mixed scenario, reflecting both the opportunities and challenges inherent in the clinical contract research organization (CRO) industry.</li><li>The company reported that revenues reached $511 million for the quarter, marking a significant 17.7% increase on a year-over year basis.</li><li>This positive trajectory can be attributed to healthy demand for Medpace’s clinical research services, as demonstrated by the growth in ending backlog which stood at approximately $2.9 billion—an increase of 18.2% compared to the previous year.</li></ul>

Medpace's financial results for the first quarter of 2023 highlight a mixed scenario, reflecting both the opportunities and challenges inherent in the clinical contract research organization (CRO) industry.The company reported that revenues reached $511 million for the quarter, marking a significant 17.7% increase on a year-over year basis.This positive trajectory can be attributed to healthy demand for Medpace’s clinical research services, as demonstrated by the growth in ending backlog which stood at approximately $2.9 billion—an increase of 18.2% compared to the previous year.

Medpace Holdings Inc.: Will The Improved Bookings Environment Last? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>Medpace Holdings, a leading full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO), reported robust results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.</li><li>The company's revenue increased 26.5% year-over-year in Q4, reaching $498.4 million.</li><li>For the full year, revenue stood at $1.89 billion, a rise of 29.2% from 2022.</li></ul>

Medpace Holdings, a leading full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO), reported robust results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.The company's revenue increased 26.5% year-over-year in Q4, reaching $498.4 million.For the full year, revenue stood at $1.89 billion, a rise of 29.2% from 2022.

Medpace Holdings Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage - Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 1,350p offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ergomed-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23411:1" rel="noopener">Ergomed Plc (ERGO LN)</a> (28% premium, 18.9x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA using IBES estimated) seems optically attractive considering share underperformance, and in line with closest peer Medpace at 19.06x.</li>
<li>Nevertheless there'd be synergies available to a trade buyer and other than 18% from the Founder, there aren't any other irrevocables, which indicates the offer price is far from knock-out.</li>
<li>I set my TP at 1,350p. Spread turned negative last week, now 0.59%/1.71% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by mid-February). I would be long considering there's still time for a competing offer.</li>
</ul>


The 1,350p offer for Ergomed Plc (ERGO LN) (28% premium, 18.9x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA using IBES estimated) seems optically attractive considering share underperformance, and in line with closest peer Medpace at 19.06x.
Nevertheless there'd be synergies available to a trade buyer and other than 18% from the Founder, there aren't any other irrevocables, which indicates the offer price is far from knock-out.
I set my TP at 1,350p. Spread turned negative last week, now 0.59%/1.71% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by mid-February). I would be long considering there's still time for a competing offer.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We remain concerned about the prospect for additional weakness for the broad market due to deterioration in several metrics that we often turn to to get a pulse on the market. At the same time, several cyclical areas of the market have bounced off of logical support while RS has been unable to break out to new highs for defensive Sectors. Absent bearish price inflections in the cyclicals and new RS highs for defensive areas of the market, equities are likely to remain in a state of purgatory.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities.</p>

We remain concerned about the prospect for additional weakness for the broad market due to deterioration in several metrics that we often turn to to get a pulse on the market. At the same time, several cyclical areas of the market have bounced off of logical support while RS has been unable to break out to new highs for defensive Sectors. Absent bearish price inflections in the cyclicals and new RS highs for defensive areas of the market, equities are likely to remain in a state of purgatory.  In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Still Susceptible

United States

Medpace Holdings, Inc. operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides cardiovascular, hematology, oncology, neurology, pediatrics, nephrology, and diagnostic services. Medpace Holdings serves patients worldwide.

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Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP US)

Medpace Holdings Inc.: An Analysis Of Its Business Strategy

Medpace, in their second quarter 2024 earnings call, provided a detailed overview of their financial and operational performance. The company...

Baptista Research

Medpace Holdings Inc.: Will The Improved Bookings Environment Last? - Major Drivers

Medpace's financial results for the first quarter of 2023 highlight a mixed scenario, reflecting both the opportunities and challenges inherent in...

Baptista Research

Medpace Holdings Inc.: Initiation Of Coverage - Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? - Major Drivers

Medpace Holdings, a leading full-service clinical contract research organization (CRO), reported robust results for the fourth quarter and full...

Baptista Research

No Danger in Being Long

Spread turned negative and widened in the last week. I believe the risk/reward of adding at or below 1,340p is more favourable considering that...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

U.S. Equity Strategy: Market Still Susceptible

We remain concerned about the prospect for additional weakness for the broad market due to deterioration in several metrics that we often turn to...

Vermilion Research

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