Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.</li>
<li>The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELETEs.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELETEs.


Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24 Rebal: Many Intra-Review Changes Possible Due to M&A, Spin-Offs

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>While our potential universe includes a broad range of branded consumer companies across the market capitalization, one corner of that universe that we have done a lot of work on over the years involves those companies utilizing a direct selling business model, which deploys a sales force of independent contractors to get their products in the hands of consumers.</li><li>The top trend we are monitoring for 2025 is the impact that the burgeoning market for GLP-1 drugs has on the weight loss stocks.</li><li>Two pure-play weight- loss names we monitor, MED and WW, have already been severely affected by the disruption caused by the GLP-1 drugs and have been on the defensive in recent years.</li></ul>

While our potential universe includes a broad range of branded consumer companies across the market capitalization, one corner of that universe that we have done a lot of work on over the years involves those companies utilizing a direct selling business model, which deploys a sales force of independent contractors to get their products in the hands of consumers.The top trend we are monitoring for 2025 is the impact that the burgeoning market for GLP-1 drugs has on the weight loss stocks.Two pure-play weight- loss names we monitor, MED and WW, have already been severely affected by the disruption caused by the GLP-1 drugs and have been on the defensive in recent years.

2025 Outlook: Focus Is on Top Line - November 13, 2024

<ul><li>Many of the companies that participated in our recent Consumer Products Virtual Investor Conference have been working hard in righting the ship following the post- pandemic hangover that a lot of consumer names have suffered through.</li><li>There were several new management teams with new strategies, and a lot of talk about inflection points.</li><li>Vera Bradley’s CEO, CFO, and CMO have each been there for less than two years, and the company is about to roll out its Project Restoration strategic initiatives next month, which management believes will take the company into the third <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">major stage of its lifecycle.</span></li></ul>

Many of the companies that participated in our recent Consumer Products Virtual Investor Conference have been working hard in righting the ship following the post- pandemic hangover that a lot of consumer names have suffered through.There were several new management teams with new strategies, and a lot of talk about inflection points.Vera Bradley’s CEO, CFO, and CMO have each been there for less than two years, and the company is about to roll out its Project Restoration strategic initiatives next month, which management believes will take the company into the third major stage of its lifecycle.

Consumer Products Conference Recap - June 20, 2024

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 3 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX</a>, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.</li>
<li>There is huge size to trade in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co (KKR US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/crowdstrike-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28117:1" rel="noopener">Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US)</a> and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.</li>
<li>There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kkr-co-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27333:1" rel="noopener">KKR &amp; Co</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rb-global-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25475:1" rel="noopener">RB Global</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land</a> could see further positioning in the next week.</li>
</ul>


There are 3 changes for the S&amp;P 500 INDEX, 7 changes for the S&amp;P Midcap400 Index and 13 changes for the S&amp;P SmallCap600 Index at the June rebalance.
There is huge size to trade in KKR &amp; Co (KKR US) and Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD US) and both stocks were up big in the after-hours market.
There has been positioning in some stocks recently but stocks including KKR &amp; Co, RB Global and Texas Pacific Land could see further positioning in the next week.


S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

<ul>
<li>Valuations for direct selling stocks remain at or near historical lows following a very difficult year for the group in 2023.</li>
<li>The 12-month prospective relative P/E ratio for our proprietary Direct Selling Index closed 2023 at a 43% discount to the market, having entered the year at a 35% discount to the market.</li>
<li>This relative multiple contraction was despite a slight improvement in the prospective absolute P/E ratio to 11.2x at the end of 2023, up from 10.9x at the beginning of the year, since the multiple expansion for the S&amp;P 500 was much greater, having expanded nearly 3 full multiple points on the year to close out at approximately 19.7x forward earnings.</li>
</ul>


Valuations for direct selling stocks remain at or near historical lows following a very difficult year for the group in 2023.
The 12-month prospective relative P/E ratio for our proprietary Direct Selling Index closed 2023 at a 43% discount to the market, having entered the year at a 35% discount to the market.
This relative multiple contraction was despite a slight improvement in the prospective absolute P/E ratio to 11.2x at the end of 2023, up from 10.9x at the beginning of the year, since the multiple expansion for the S&amp;P 500 was much greater, having expanded nearly 3 full multiple points on the year to close out at approximately 19.7x forward earnings.


Direct Sellers Valuation Update - Relative Valuations Remain at Generational Lows

United States

Medifast, Inc. combines physician-supervised weight loss programs with nutritional supplements and multidisciplinary patient education programs.  The Company provides an Internet-based physician and medical practitioner network to consumers.  Medifast also provides a corporate wellness program for large corporations, associations, and their health insurance carriers.

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Medifast Inc (MED US)

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 Jun 24 Rebal: Many Intra-Review Changes Possible Due to M&A, Spin-Offs

The SP500 will to see up to 4 intra-review changes before the June 2024 rebal. 3 near certain. The interesting ones? Two SP600 deletions due to...

Travis Lundy

2025 Outlook: Focus Is on Top Line - November 13, 2024

The top trend we are monitoring for 2025 is the impact that the burgeoning market for GLP-1 drugs has on the weight loss stocks.

Water Tower Research

Consumer Products Conference Recap - June 20, 2024

Many of the companies that participated in our recent Consumer Products Virtual Investor Conference have been working hard in righting the ship...

Water Tower Research

S&P500/400/600 Index Rebalance: Huge Size to Trade in a Few Stocks

KKR, Crowdstrike and GoDaddy will be added to the SP500 at the close on 21 June. There are a bunch of changes for the SP400/600 indices too. There...

Brian Freitas

Direct Sellers Valuation Update - Relative Valuations Remain at Generational Lows

The 12-month prospective relative P/E ratio for our proprietary Direct Selling Index closed 2023 at a 43% discount to the market, having entered...

Water Tower Research

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