Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona have signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms for US$6.6 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act.</li>
<li>We estimate the impact of the earthquake on April 3rd should result in a loss of within 0.5% in 2Q24F, which means it should not affect our 2Q24F revenue expectations.</li>
<li>TSMC's 1st Japan Fab is expected to commence pilot production in February, and the 2nd Fab is projected to begin production of N6/N7 in 2027F.</li>
</ul>


Today, the U.S. Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona have signed a non-binding preliminary memorandum of terms for US$6.6 billion in direct funding under the CHIPS and Science Act.
We estimate the impact of the earthquake on April 3rd should result in a loss of within 0.5% in 2Q24F, which means it should not affect our 2Q24F revenue expectations.
TSMC's 1st Japan Fab is expected to commence pilot production in February, and the 2nd Fab is projected to begin production of N6/N7 in 2027F.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 5th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,983.2bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD232mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Bora Pharma, Wistron, Faraday Tech, Lite-On Tech, Alchip Tech, Hon Hai, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 5th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,983.2bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD232mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Bora Pharma, Wistron, Faraday Tech, Lite-On Tech, Alchip Tech, Hon Hai, Asia Vital, Quanta Computer.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 5th): TSMC, Wiwynn, Bora Pharma, Wistron, Faraday Tech, Lite-On

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

<ul>
<li>During 1Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +8.7%y/y, down slightly from the +10.1% reported during 4Q2023.</li>
<li>Only 47% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 44% delivered positive Sales surprises, a sharp correction from the positive trend witnessed during 2023.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


During 1Q2024, the 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +8.7%y/y, down slightly from the +10.1% reported during 4Q2023.
Only 47% of companies delivered positive EPS surprises, and only 44% delivered positive Sales surprises, a sharp correction from the positive trend witnessed during 2023.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024

<ul>
<li>TSMC Q2 2024 outlook is expected to increase by approximately 5% QoQ, with 2024 projected Capex to see a slight uptick. </li>
<li>Intel is expected to adopt <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-sp-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8587:1" rel="noopener">TSMC</a> N3B technology in 2Q24F, while we anticipate that MediaTek will transition to N3E by the end of 3Q24F.  </li>
<li>Intel has received financial assistance of US$8 billion through the US Chips and Science Act, and TSMC is also projected to receive around US$5 billion.</li>
</ul>


TSMC Q2 2024 outlook is expected to increase by approximately 5% QoQ, with 2024 projected Capex to see a slight uptick. 
Intel is expected to adopt TSMC N3B technology in 2Q24F, while we anticipate that MediaTek will transition to N3E by the end of 3Q24F.  
Intel has received financial assistance of US$8 billion through the US Chips and Science Act, and TSMC is also projected to receive around US$5 billion.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Preview; TSMC Is Anticipated to Receive ~US$5Bn from the US Chip Act.

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,994.1bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD5,801mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.</li>
<li>We highlight foreign changes in Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On Tech, Mediatek, Umc, Chicony Elec, Inventec.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Mar 29th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,994.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD5,801mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
We highlight foreign changes in Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On Tech, Mediatek, Umc, Chicony Elec, Inventec.


TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 29th): Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On

Taiwan

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

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Mediatek Inc (2454 TT)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.

US Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona sign $6.6 billion deal; earthquake impact minimal on TSMC revenue; TSMC's 1st Japan Fab to start...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 5th): TSMC, Wiwynn, Bora Pharma, Wistron, Faraday Tech, Lite-On

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Bora Pharma, Wistron, Faraday...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends by looking at Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive surprises,...

Wium Malan, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Preview; TSMC Is Anticipated to Receive ~US$5Bn from the US Chip Act.

TSMC's Q2 2024 outlook to increase by 5%, Intel to adopt TSMC N3B technology, and both companies to receive financial assistance through US Chips...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 29th): Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): US$6.6bn from US CHIPS Act; the Earthquake Impact and the 2nd Japanese Fab.

​US Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona sign $6.6 billion deal; earthquake impact minimal on TSMC revenue; TSMC's 1st Japan Fab to start...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 5th): TSMC, Wiwynn, Bora Pharma, Wistron, Faraday Tech, Lite-On

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Bora Pharma, Wistron, Faraday...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 1Q2024

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends by looking at Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive surprises,...

Wium Malan, CFA

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 2Q24F Preview; TSMC Is Anticipated to Receive ~US$5Bn from the US Chip Act.

​TSMC's Q2 2024 outlook to increase by 5%, Intel to adopt TSMC N3B technology, and both companies to receive financial assistance through US Chips...

Patrick Liao

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Mar 29th): Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek Semi, Lite-On

We analyzed TWSE foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in Hon Hai, Wistron, Wiwynn, Alchip Tech, Realtek...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

US Department of Commerce and TSMC Arizona sign $6.6 billion deal; earthquake impact minimal on TSMC revenue; TSMC's 1st Japan Fab to start...

TSMC's Q2 2024 outlook to increase by 5%, Intel to adopt TSMC N3B technology, and both companies to receive financial assistance through US Chips...