Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<div><p>JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks whose main market is the TSE1, TSE2, JASDAQ, and Mothers sections (which will become the Prime Market, Standard Market, or Growth Market next April) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.</p></div><div><p>A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review is conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. </p></div><div><p>Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event and others. Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-October 2021.</p></div>

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks whose main market is the TSE1, TSE2, JASDAQ, and Mothers sections (which will become the Prime Market, Standard Market, or Growth Market next April) of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. This is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents selected based on several factors including market capitalization, trading value, operating profits, and ROE.A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. This review is conducted using the final business day of June as the base date. Quiddity provides quantitative research on pre-event basket strategies surrounding this Index Rebalance event and others. Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading data as of end-October 2021.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leader Board End-Oct 2021

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Equity Bottom-Up

Mebuki Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<p>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/resona-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6841:1" rel="noopener">Resona Holdings (8308 JP)</a> announced a buyback of 2+% of shares out, in what looked like a buyback from existing cross-holders who wished to sell a large block without friction. Having offered to buy 70mm shares as discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/resona-8308-jp-buyback-respectably-large-but-looks-like-a-one-off" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:51331" rel="noopener">Resona (8308 JP) BUYBACK - Respectably Large But Looks Like A One-Off</a>, they bought back 62.5mm shares this AM, and they have another 25.5mm shares to buy back - roughly 2.5 days of ADV - in the next 4.5 months. </p><p>That was a one-off by Resona which was "known" since last November as a mitigant against EPS dilution which would come as a result of share issuance to absorb Kansai Mirai Financial. </p><p>The NEW News today is that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mebuki-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10048:1" rel="noopener">Mebuki Financial Group (7167 JP)</a> which was formed after Joyo Bank absorbed Ashikaga Bank today announced <a href="https://www.mebuki-fg.co.jp/eng/pdf/release/20210512.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">earnings</a> which were about 3% better than consensus, and forecasts for 2022 which appear about 2% lower than consensus expects for March 2022, but they also <a href="https://www.mebuki-fg.co.jp/eng/pdf/release/20210512_02.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced a buyback</a> of up to 60 million shares spending up to ¥16bn. That is 5.17% of shares out. That is non-negligible and will bring the EPS forecast back above consensus even if pre-tax is just below. </p><p>They get that started by launching a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning pre-open for the same 60 million shares. </p><p>THAT is "implied news." It is something investors should understand, and use as a signal. There will be more of this and as a trend it is unmitigated good news for investors in Japan Inc.</p>

Yesterday, Resona Holdings (8308 JP) announced a buyback of 2+% of shares out, in what looked like a buyback from existing cross-holders who wished to sell a large block without friction. Having offered to buy 70mm shares as discussed in Resona (8308 JP) BUYBACK - Respectably Large But Looks Like A One-Off, they bought back 62.5mm shares this AM, and they have another 25.5mm shares to buy back - roughly 2.5 days of ADV - in the next 4.5 months. That was a one-off by Resona which was "known" since last November as a mitigant against EPS dilution which would come as a result of share issuance to absorb Kansai Mirai Financial. The NEW News today is that Mebuki Financial Group (7167 JP) which was formed after Joyo Bank absorbed Ashikaga Bank today announced earnings which were about 3% better than consensus, and forecasts for 2022 which appear about 2% lower than consensus expects for March 2022, but they also announced a buyback of up to 60 million shares spending up to ¥16bn. That is 5.17% of shares out. That is non-negligible and will bring the EPS forecast back above consensus even if pre-tax is just below. They get that started by launching a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tomorrow morning pre-open for the same 60 million shares. THAT is "implied news." It is something investors should understand, and use as a signal. There will be more of this and as a trend it is unmitigated good news for investors in Japan Inc.

Mebuki Follows Resona - Bank Buyback Season Starts Strong And This Is A Good Sign

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks, Windamee Research

J. Brian Waterhouse

Senior Bank Analyst - Japanese Banks

Windamee Research

Japanese Banks

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to edge down over the last three months to ¥534.206 trillion (US$5.08 trillion) as of the end of September, albeit by a mere 0.1% month-on-month (MoM).  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.5% MoM, but they still represent 40% of total bank lending in Japan.  By contrast, both the Japanese Bankers Association and the Bank of Japan reported that lending by the regional and secondary regional banks continues to increase, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.  Aggregate lending by the 64 regional banks now represents 42% of total bank lending in Japan, while aggregate lending by the 38 secondary regional banks is around 9.6% of total bank lending.</p>

After hitting a peak of ¥535.407 trillion (US$5.10 trillion) in June, overall loan outstandings have started to edge down over the last three months to ¥534.206 trillion (US$5.08 trillion) as of the end of September, albeit by a mere 0.1% month-on-month (MoM).  The major banks have registered the biggest declines of around 0.5% MoM, but they still represent 40% of total bank lending in Japan.  By contrast, both the Japanese Bankers Association and the Bank of Japan reported that lending by the regional and secondary regional banks continues to increase, with YoY growth rates of +5.6% and +7.1%, respectively.  Aggregate lending by the 64 regional banks now represents 42% of total bank lending in Japan, while aggregate lending by the 38 secondary regional banks is around 9.6% of total bank lending.

<p>The megabankers are awash in cash: their loans to deposits ratios (LDR)  -  an important measure of overall efficiency  -  have collapsed to below 52%, whereas back in 2001 they were close to 98%.  In the meantime, margins remain under pressure amidst this hyper-liquidity, banks are struggling to make any profit on their domestic book, unrealised securities gains have been whittled away, credit costs are rising exponentially, while the COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented demand from corporate borrowers for loans but made at virtually no profit margin.  Return on asset (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) ratios can only deteriorate further in such an environment.</p><p>While many Japanese bank stocks have risen by double-digits over the last three months, rising on a tide of cautious investor optimism over the outlook for recovery in Japan’s manufacturing sector <em>post</em>-COVID-19, it remains a fact that Japanese banks have underperformed Topix virtually unchecked since 2015.  We see no signs of this trend reversing.  “<em>Caveat Emptor!”</em> (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for FY3/2021 and beyond.</p>

The megabankers are awash in cash: their loans to deposits ratios (LDR)  -  an important measure of overall efficiency  -  have collapsed to below 52%, whereas back in 2001 they were close to 98%.  In the meantime, margins remain under pressure amidst this hyper-liquidity, banks are struggling to make any profit on their domestic book, unrealised securities gains have been whittled away, credit costs are rising exponentially, while the COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented demand from corporate borrowers for loans but made at virtually no profit margin.  Return on asset (RoA) and return on equity (RoE) ratios can only deteriorate further in such an environment.While many Japanese bank stocks have risen by double-digits over the last three months, rising on a tide of cautious investor optimism over the outlook for recovery in Japan’s manufacturing sector post-COVID-19, it remains a fact that Japanese banks have underperformed Topix virtually unchecked since 2015.  We see no signs of this trend reversing.  “Caveat Emptor!” (May the Buyer Beware) remains our advice to would-be investors in Japanese bank stocks for FY3/2021 and beyond.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<p>It is rare for Japan’s banks to shine. We wonder if this is now their time and even if only fleetingly so? Credit costs are down substantially for almost every reporting bank in the June quarter, at least so far. Most will recognize by now that this crisis is not like past crises, and that as we turn economies back on, together with unprecedented stimulus, low interest rates, the recovery profile can also be very different. We are seeing this within many economies and Japan’s banks stand out, globally. Their credit cost delta is generally higher than others and what matters more is that some have seen their previous six months’ credit costs still far higher than recent years. This can mean substantially lower provisions in coming quarters, leading to substantially higher profit.</p>

It is rare for Japan’s banks to shine. We wonder if this is now their time and even if only fleetingly so? Credit costs are down substantially for almost every reporting bank in the June quarter, at least so far. Most will recognize by now that this crisis is not like past crises, and that as we turn economies back on, together with unprecedented stimulus, low interest rates, the recovery profile can also be very different. We are seeing this within many economies and Japan’s banks stand out, globally. Their credit cost delta is generally higher than others and what matters more is that some have seen their previous six months’ credit costs still far higher than recent years. This can mean substantially lower provisions in coming quarters, leading to substantially higher profit.

Japan

Mebuki Financial Group Inc. is a holding company established through the merger of Joyo Bank and Ashikaga Bank. As a financial group, the Company offers deposits, Loans, foreign exchange transactions, commercial and trust banking. Mebuki Financial Group also provides financial services such as letter of credit, credit cards and consulting.

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Mebuki Financial Group (7167 JP)

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance 2022: Leader Board End-Oct 2021

In this insight, we take a look at the potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2022 based on trading...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Mebuki Follows Resona - Bank Buyback Season Starts Strong And This Is A Good Sign

A day after Resona's ToSTNeT-3 buyback to buy crossholder shares, Mebuki announces one twice as large. Could be coincidence. Could be a theme....

Travis Lundy

Japanese Bank Lending: Flatlining

Loan and deposit data for Japanese banks released by both the BoJ and the JBA for September 2020 confirm that the ‘dash for cash’ by major...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japanese Banks: Awash in Cash

The megabankers are awash in cash: their loans to deposits ratios (LDR) - an important measure of overall efficiency - have collapsed to below...

J. Brian Waterhouse

Japan Banks – Rare Time to Shine?

It is rare for Japan’s banks to shine. We wonder if this is now their time and even if only fleetingly so? Credit costs are down substantially for...

Daniel Tabbush

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