Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In last month's report we saw late-September USD strength contribute to softer base metals sentiment and a collapse in precious metals sentiment (amid reports of millennial preference for cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge)</li>
<li>More recently, we saw copper sentiment surge to &gt;3x STDEVs, a multi-year record on our data, as financial media preoccupation with relative Chinese macro strength and strong EV demand met persistent newsflow on imminent labor-related supply disruptions in Chile; our back-testing suggests such anomalous sentiment readings normally lead to temporary pullbacks in the copper price</li>
<li>Gold &amp; silver sentiment fell further in October to levels last seen in April, but we see early signs of bottoming in gold; platinum sentiment improved on hydrogen economy news </li>
<li>Crude oil sentiment fell to its lowest since May, predictably attributed to the prospect of COVID-19 lockdowns spreading globally &amp; Libyan news</li>
<li>Iron ore sentiment has moved into positive territory in the final week of October, driven by 3 consecutive weeks of steel inventory draws in China and a notable rally in rebar prices</li>
<li>Despite deteriorating COVID-19 newsflow, crude weakness and USD strength, sentiment is positive on more commodities relative to late September, with supply disruptions and greater conviction on Chinese macro the key drivers</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


In last month's report we saw late-September USD strength contribute to softer base metals sentiment and a collapse in precious metals sentiment (amid reports of millennial preference for cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge)
More recently, we saw copper sentiment surge to &gt;3x STDEVs, a multi-year record on our data, as financial media preoccupation with relative Chinese macro strength and strong EV demand met persistent newsflow on imminent labor-related supply disruptions in Chile; our back-testing suggests such anomalous sentiment readings normally lead to temporary pullbacks in the copper price
Gold &amp; silver sentiment fell further in October to levels last seen in April, but we see early signs of bottoming in gold; platinum sentiment improved on hydrogen economy news 
Crude oil sentiment fell to its lowest since May, predictably attributed to the prospect of COVID-19 lockdowns spreading globally &amp; Libyan news
Iron ore sentiment has moved into positive territory in the final week of October, driven by 3 consecutive weeks of steel inventory draws in China and a notable rally in rebar prices
Despite deteriorating COVID-19 newsflow, crude weakness and USD strength, sentiment is positive on more commodities relative to late September, with supply disruptions and greater conviction on Chinese macro the key drivers
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Indicators:  November Commodity Sentiment - Base Overshoots, Ferrous Improves, Gold Bottoming?

<ul>
<li>Last week we highlighted a downward shift in US inflation expectations, and our diffusion index of inflationary vs. deflationary expressions continues to soften (see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-snapshot-cross-currents-in-the-us-rental-market-hint-at-pausing-inflation-expectations" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43259" rel="noopener">TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations)</a>
</li>
<li>We believe this shift is largely responsible for unwelcome USD strength and recent pressures on precious metals as well as the overall commodity complex (as noted in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tmi-indicators-gold-sentiment-seeking-catalysts-following-latest-leg-up-on-us-benefit-expiration" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43356" rel="noopener">TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration</a>)</li>
<li>While our inflation expectations note focused on emerging pressures in the US rental market and their impact on TIPS inflation breakevens, we must acknowledge that the psychology behind the emerging consensus inflationary mindset went into overdrive when extraordinary open-ended QE was perceived to be augmented by continued massive fiscal support and accelerated COVID-19 vaccine news flow</li>
<li>Our text mining sees an unprecedented spike in US political divisions coinciding with a sharp step down in fiscal stimulus expectations, as well as lowered expectations on the near-term availability of a COVID-19 vaccine</li>
<li>With two pillars of the emerging inflationary mindset now broken, the underlying narrative is seeing significant near-term challenges</li>
<li>As a potential post-election silver lining, our text mining sees a shift in perceptions of a Biden win from potentially disinflationary to inflationary (as Biden tax implications are now seen as less onerous and infrastructure investment potentially larger)</li>
<li>As long as uncertainty on post-election outcomes lingers, we suspect disinflationary pressures drive elevated vol, a stronger USD, continued pullback in precious metals &amp; the broader commodities complex, and a near-term shift away from the incipient cyclical/value rotations</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


Last week we highlighted a downward shift in US inflation expectations, and our diffusion index of inflationary vs. deflationary expressions continues to soften (see TMI Snapshot:  Cross-Currents In The US Rental Market Hint At Pausing Inflation Expectations)

We believe this shift is largely responsible for unwelcome USD strength and recent pressures on precious metals as well as the overall commodity complex (as noted in TMI Indicators: Gold Sentiment Seeking Catalysts Following Latest Leg Up On US Benefit Expiration)
While our inflation expectations note focused on emerging pressures in the US rental market and their impact on TIPS inflation breakevens, we must acknowledge that the psychology behind the emerging consensus inflationary mindset went into overdrive when extraordinary open-ended QE was perceived to be augmented by continued massive fiscal support and accelerated COVID-19 vaccine news flow
Our text mining sees an unprecedented spike in US political divisions coinciding with a sharp step down in fiscal stimulus expectations, as well as lowered expectations on the near-term availability of a COVID-19 vaccine
With two pillars of the emerging inflationary mindset now broken, the underlying narrative is seeing significant near-term challenges
As a potential post-election silver lining, our text mining sees a shift in perceptions of a Biden win from potentially disinflationary to inflationary (as Biden tax implications are now seen as less onerous and infrastructure investment potentially larger)
As long as uncertainty on post-election outcomes lingers, we suspect disinflationary pressures drive elevated vol, a stronger USD, continued pullback in precious metals &amp; the broader commodities complex, and a near-term shift away from the incipient cyclical/value rotations
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshots:  More Signs Of Pressure on Inflation Expectations, USD Upside, And A Silver Lining

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.</p>

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based advance. There are some developments that leave us wanting more, but we are inching toward an outright bullish outlook. In today’s report we outline our U.S. investment thesis, and highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Materials, and Manufacturing: Biotech, Large-Cap, Aluminum, Chemicals, Diversified, and Fluid Technology &amp; Power.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

<p>The S&amp;P 500 made a new all-time closing high following the largely as-expected U.S.-China trade cease-fire agreement, but it did so unconvincingly. We would not call it a breakout as the market closed well off of the opening highs and not one cyclical Sector is decisively in new high territory. Overall, the market is sending mixed signals. Barring additional positive developments we believe upside is likely to be muted from here. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Services, and Technology: Diagnostic Imaging, Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, and Solar Energy.</p>

The S&amp;P 500 made a new all-time closing high following the largely as-expected U.S.-China trade cease-fire agreement, but it did so unconvincingly. We would not call it a breakout as the market closed well off of the opening highs and not one cyclical Sector is decisively in new high territory. Overall, the market is sending mixed signals. Barring additional positive developments we believe upside is likely to be muted from here. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Health Care, Services, and Technology: Diagnostic Imaging, Construction &amp; Engineering, Large-Cap, and Solar Energy.

<p>Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major sources of investor angst: (1) the pace of Fed tightenings and (2) trade policy. The S&amp;P 500 has opened trading today near the 2,817 resistance, a key level we are monitoring. The impending breakout - or breakdown below ~2,600 support, if resistance holds - will be key in determining where the market goes next.  In this report we highlight actionable Industry ETFs, broad EM ETFs and actionable Int’l ETFs, as well as sector rating changes: we are downgrading Technology (XLK) and upgrading Financials (XLF).</p>

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major sources of investor angst: (1) the pace of Fed tightenings and (2) trade policy. The S&amp;P 500 has opened trading today near the 2,817 resistance, a key level we are monitoring. The impending breakout - or breakdown below ~2,600 support, if resistance holds - will be key in determining where the market goes next.  In this report we highlight actionable Industry ETFs, broad EM ETFs and actionable Int’l ETFs, as well as sector rating changes: we are downgrading Technology (XLK) and upgrading Financials (XLF).

Global ETF Synopsis: Highlighting Technical Trends Across the ETF Universe

United States

Materials Select Sector SPDR Trust is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA.  The Fund's objective is to provide investment results that correspond to the performance of the Materials Select Sector Index.  The Index includes companies from the following industries: chemicals, construction materials, containers and packaging.

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Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB US)

TMI Indicators: November Commodity Sentiment - Base Overshoots, Ferrous Improves, Gold Bottoming?

Our text-mined commodity sentiment indicators see an overshoot in copper sentiment, a notable turnaround in iron ore sentiment, and potential signs...

Elan Gore

TMI Snapshots: More Signs Of Pressure on Inflation Expectations, USD Upside, And A Silver Lining

Last week we highlighted

Elan Gore

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Testing Critical Resistance; Downgrading Communications

As bullish developments pile up, the weight-of-the-evidence continues to support our belief that we may be in the early stages of a broad-based...

Vermilion Research

All-Time Closing Highs Fails To Impress

The S&P 500 made a new all-time closing high following the largely as-expected U.S.-China trade cease-fire agreement, but it did so...

Vermilion Research

Global ETF Synopsis: Highlighting Technical Trends Across the ETF Universe

Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell and the U.S.-China 90-day ceasefire agreement have drastically diminished (for now) concerns over two major...

Vermilion Research

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Market Cap (USDm)

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