TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Match is down 52% over the past 6 months and at $71, Match trades at a 5% FCF yield, ~17x Fwd EBITDA, for ~20% growth / ~35% EBITDA margin</li>
<li>Covid restrictions lifted in Japan (2nd biggest market) should be tailwind for 2H22</li>
<li>New CEO from Zynga brings unique mobile monetization skillset ideally suited for coming Tinder Coins summer launch.</li>
</ul>


Match is down 52% over the past 6 months and at $71, Match trades at a 5% FCF yield, ~17x Fwd EBITDA, for ~20% growth / ~35% EBITDA margin
Covid restrictions lifted in Japan (2nd biggest market) should be tailwind for 2H22
New CEO from Zynga brings unique mobile monetization skillset ideally suited for coming Tinder Coins summer launch.


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Match Group had a strong financial performance in the year with its portfolio of online dating brands and is the market leader in the space.</li><li>Tinder's active user growth continues to be strong, with the brand setting a new global record for active users in 2021.</li><li>Overall, we believe the Match Group is fairly valued and we give the company an 'Outperform' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Match Group had a strong financial performance in the year with its portfolio of online dating brands and is the market leader in the space.Tinder's active user growth continues to be strong, with the brand setting a new global record for active users in 2021.Overall, we believe the Match Group is fairly valued and we give the company an 'Outperform' rating with a revised target price.

<ul><li>Match Group had a topsy-turvy 2021 on account of strong revenue growth coupled with a series of earnings misses.</li><li>Tinder has been a standout for the company and it generated $434 million in direct revenue in the quarter, a 20% increase year over year, with a payer growth of 19% (1.7 million payer additions to reach a total of 10.4 million).</li><li>At its current valuation, we believe the Match Group is fairly valued and we give the company a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.</li></ul>

Match Group had a topsy-turvy 2021 on account of strong revenue growth coupled with a series of earnings misses.Tinder has been a standout for the company and it generated $434 million in direct revenue in the quarter, a 20% increase year over year, with a payer growth of 19% (1.7 million payer additions to reach a total of 10.4 million).At its current valuation, we believe the Match Group is fairly valued and we give the company a 'Hold' rating with a revised target price.

<p>Today we want to address Zillow’s decision to exit iBuying and whether or not the 25% share price drop gets us interested in owning Zillow. We will do a followup note later in the week about the overall prospects for iBuying and if we would be buyers of Opendoor or Offerpad. Spoiler alert: We’d buy Opendoor.</p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

Today we want to address Zillow’s decision to exit iBuying and whether or not the 25% share price drop gets us interested in owning Zillow. We will do a followup note later in the week about the overall prospects for iBuying and if we would be buyers of Opendoor or Offerpad. Spoiler alert: We’d buy Opendoor.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Zillow: What Data Driven Competitive Advantage?

Latest News from the World’s Leading Innovators

Granite Bay Capital

An innovation focussed investment company

Granite Bay Capital is an innovation focussed investment company with a deep focus on the companies at the leading edge of innovation across major themes such as AI, ubiquitous computing, sustainability, automation and longevity.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Headline Development A lot of momentum continues around the metaverse. A few people were close to the pin on Facebook’s new name…..MetaBook, Metanet, MetaRack...even MetaMark being amongst the favourites.  However, Meta came out on top - or Meta Platforms (MVRS) to be precise.</p>

Headline Development A lot of momentum continues around the metaverse. A few people were close to the pin on Facebook’s new name…..MetaBook, Metanet, MetaRack...even MetaMark being amongst the favourites.  However, Meta came out on top - or Meta Platforms (MVRS) to be precise.

United States

Match Group, Inc. is a dating service provider. The Company offers diverse portfolio of apps and services which enables connections across the spectrum of age, race, gender, sexual orientation, and backgrounds. Match Group serves customers worldwide.

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Match Group (MTCH US)

Revisiting Long Ideas: Match Group

We think Match Group offers an attractive entry point. Always highly valued, but it’s a highly profitable (35% EBITDA margins) platform with a...

Aaron Gabin

Match Group: Investment Thesis

Match Group had a strong financial performance in the year with its portfolio of online dating brands and is the market leader in the...

Baptista Research

Match Group Inc - Investment Thesis

Match Group had a topsy-turvy 2021 on account of strong revenue growth coupled with a series of earnings misses. Tinder has been a standout for...

Baptista Research

Zillow: What Data Driven Competitive Advantage?

We are puzzled by Zillow's sudden exit from iBuying given its supposed data driven competitive advantages. While the remaining IMT biz is...

Aaron Gabin

Weekly Innovation Review (WIRE) #56

Headline Development A lot of momentum continues around the metaverse. A few people were close to the pin on Facebook’s new name…..MetaBook,...

Granite Bay Capital

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