Managing Director

Elan Gore

TMI Data Science

TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade & traditional media.  Our proprietary software, TMI Machine, is a text-mining platform designed with the buy-side & capital markets professional in mind, text-mining the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income & individual equities.  TMI provides custom leading indicators and systematic trading strategies, operating at the nexus of linguistics & statistics drawing on vast experience in investment banking and hedge fund settings in senior quantitative and fundamental roles.  

TMI Data Science was founded by Elan Gore, an award-winning Senior Global Basic Materials Equity Analyst & China Economist with 15 years of experience in North American hedge funds & institutional managers; and Alessandro Porrino, Ph.D., an Algorithmic Trading Analyst and Programmer with 10 years of front-office experience ranging from complex FX option pricing to auto-hedging strategies at Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Standard Chartered.  Mr. Gore holds an MBA in Finance from New York University Stern School of Business, and Mr. Porrino holds a Ph.D. in Systems Engineering from Brunel University London.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The strength of US housing has been an unassailable consensus theme coming out of the March-April shock, aided by record-low rates and signs of deurbanization</li>
<li>We text-mine across a range of housing vectors to find greater nuance to the story than headlines imply</li>
<li>Extreme sentiment readings are seen in recent reporting on housing data releases (i.e. existing home sales, housing starts, NAHB); but our text-mined indicators of homebuyer intentions, deurbanization pressure and sales reported above asking price have turned softer</li>
<li>This is partially confirmed by Zillow app store data, which peaked on a Y/Y basis in July and on an absolute basis in August, recently turning roughly flat Y/Y; and by Redfin median square footage comps, which peaked in August</li>
<li>Similarly, our indicator of wood product shortages peaked in September and has stabilized since, in-line with forest products ETF relative performance and wood product pricing</li>
<li>We suspect US housing demand has been losing momentum, but remains at elevated absolute levels</li>
</ul><div class="content-highlight"><p>TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. </p></div>


The strength of US housing has been an unassailable consensus theme coming out of the March-April shock, aided by record-low rates and signs of deurbanization
We text-mine across a range of housing vectors to find greater nuance to the story than headlines imply
Extreme sentiment readings are seen in recent reporting on housing data releases (i.e. existing home sales, housing starts, NAHB); but our text-mined indicators of homebuyer intentions, deurbanization pressure and sales reported above asking price have turned softer
This is partially confirmed by Zillow app store data, which peaked on a Y/Y basis in July and on an absolute basis in August, recently turning roughly flat Y/Y; and by Redfin median square footage comps, which peaked in August
Similarly, our indicator of wood product shortages peaked in September and has stabilized since, in-line with forest products ETF relative performance and wood product pricing
We suspect US housing demand has been losing momentum, but remains at elevated absolute levels
TMI Data Science utilizes Natural Language Processing to build custom leading indicators using unstructured data sourced from the global financial, trade &amp; traditional media. Our proprietary software text-mines the global media to discern and quantify nuanced qualitative shifts in press coverage as they apply to macroeconomics, equity indexes/ETFs, commodities, currencies, fixed income &amp; individual equities. 

TMI Snapshot: Some US Housing Indicators Lose Momentum as Deurbanization Theme Appears Transitory

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.</p>

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

<p>Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.</p>

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the “wait-and-see” phase). Until this consolidation period resolves below support or above resistance we are maintaining a relatively neutral stance considering the wide range of outcomes. Many major indexes are testing logical resistance and until we see breakouts it is hard to get too bullish. In this report we highlight attractive stocks from a RS perspective.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

<p>As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical value areas of the market have staying power. Considering the lack of breakouts or breakdowns in key cyclical areas of the market, our neutral outlook remains intact. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing: Retailers, Auto Parts, Canadian Banks, and Building Products and Fixtures.</p>

As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical value areas of the market have staying power. Considering the lack of breakouts or breakdowns in key cyclical areas of the market, our neutral outlook remains intact. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Manufacturing: Retailers, Auto Parts, Canadian Banks, and Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: One Step Forward, One Step Back

Asia-Focused Industry Research, Speeda Research

Speeda

Asia-Focused Industry Research

Speeda Research

Speeda Research analysts cover China, Japan, India and SEA on the latest trends and topics. We have analysts of diverse nationalities who are able to access information in their respective local languages to provide customers with comprehensive reports. With access to private company data in these regions, Speeda Research is also able to provide insights into niche sectors which are not usually covered by other parties. We are also able to undertake ad hoc company and industry research reports.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>What are the Alternative Taxes and Tariffs Under Consideration and the Objective and the Nature of Each Option?</h2><p>In the US, the Trump Administration is considering a variety of options to contain the increasing trade deficit, particularly with regard to one the US’ trading partners, Mexico. In 2015, the United States had a USD67bn trade deficit with Mexico in automobiles and auto parts. USD50.5bn in vehicles were shipped to the US from Mexico in 2015. Total exports in auto parts for OEMs and the…</p>

What are the Alternative Taxes and Tariffs Under Consideration and the Objective and the Nature of Each Option?In the US, the Trump Administration is considering a variety of options to contain the increasing trade deficit, particularly with regard to one the US’ trading partners, Mexico. In 2015, the United States had a USD67bn trade deficit with Mexico in automobiles and auto parts. USD50.5bn in vehicles were shipped to the US from Mexico in 2015. Total exports in auto parts for OEMs and the…

Trump Tax Impact on US-Mexico Auto Industry Could Have Greatest Impact on Mazda/Mitsubishi

United States

Masco Corporation manufactures, and sells home improvement and building products.  The Company's products include faucets, kitchen and bath cabinets, architectural coatings, and builders' hardware products.  Masco sells its products through mass merchandisers, home centers, hardware stores, and other wholesale and retail outlets to consumers and contractors.

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Masco Corp (MAS US)

TMI Snapshot: Some US Housing Indicators Lose Momentum as Deurbanization Theme Appears Transitory

We see potentially peaking momentum in US housing, as data suggests the pandemic-driven deurbanization theme seen as a multi-year secular catalyst...

Elan Gore

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Round Trip Back To Resistance

Our base case continues to be for near-term consolidation while the market determines the implications of states’ reopening (i.e., the...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: One Step Forward, One Step Back

As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical...

Vermilion Research

Trump Tax Impact on US-Mexico Auto Industry Could Have Greatest Impact on Mazda/Mitsubishi

What are the Alternative Taxes and Tariffs Under Consideration and the Objective and the Nature of Each Option?In the US, the Trump Administration...

Speeda Research

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