Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

Japan based temporary staffing companies <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trust-tech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17685:1" rel="noopener">BeNEXT Group (2154 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yumeshin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12939:1" rel="noopener">Yumeshin Holdings (2362 JP)</a> announced on Friday (after close) that they had agreed to merge.Following the completion of this transaction <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trust-tech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17685:1" rel="noopener">BeNEXT Group (2154 JP)</a> will be the surviving entity and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yumeshin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12939:1" rel="noopener">Yumeshin Holdings (2362 JP)</a> will be the extinct entity. The exchange ratio is 0.63 shares of BeNEXT Group for each share of Yumeshin Holdings. The Merger is expected to be Effective on 1st April 2021. In this insight we take a look at the likelihood of Deal completion, the fundamentals of these companies, and the TOPIX Index Event which accompanies the deal.

Japan based temporary staffing companies BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) and Yumeshin Holdings (2362 JP) announced on Friday (after close) that they had agreed to merge.Following the completion of this transaction BeNEXT Group (2154 JP) will be the surviving entity and Yumeshin Holdings (2362 JP) will be the extinct entity. The exchange ratio is 0.63 shares of BeNEXT Group for each share of Yumeshin Holdings. The Merger is expected to be Effective on 1st April 2021. In this insight we take a look at the likelihood of Deal completion, the fundamentals of these companies, and the TOPIX Index Event which accompanies the deal.

BeNEXT - Yumeshin Merger: Interesting Fundamentals and a TOPIX Index Event

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Following its strong earnings results, driven by lockdowns in China Tencent has been in the news several times lately as it has hired game development talent (Kenichiro Imaizumi from Kojima Productions and Scott Warner from Ubisoft), acquired the official System Shock 3 website and today announced that it would be taking a 20% stake in Marvelous Inc, one of Japan’s smaller game developers. As much as results look positive, these moves concern us. We explain why below.

Following its strong earnings results, driven by lockdowns in China Tencent has been in the news several times lately as it has hired game development talent (Kenichiro Imaizumi from Kojima Productions and Scott Warner from Ubisoft), acquired the official System Shock 3 website and today announced that it would be taking a 20% stake in Marvelous Inc, one of Japan’s smaller game developers. As much as results look positive, these moves concern us. We explain why below.

Tencent – How Much Can You Read Into Aggressive M&A and a Haphazard Looking Approach to AAA Entry

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/132/original/2019-03-25_18-58-11.png?1553507902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83132"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">S</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">oftbank Group (9984 JP)</a>) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/206/original/2019-03-25_17-46-58.png?1553565764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'.


Source: Japan Analytics
There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including Softbank Group (9984 JP)) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. 

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

Japan

Marvelous Inc. plans, produces, and sells visual software such as music CDs and DVDs.  The Company also specializes in digital graphics for computer game.

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Marvelous Inc (7844 JP)

BeNEXT - Yumeshin Merger: Interesting Fundamentals and a TOPIX Index Event

A merger between two similar companies, announced and effective in a hurry. The EGMs are end-March for Merger Effective Date April 1. This is more...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Tencent – How Much Can You Read Into Aggressive M&A and a Haphazard Looking Approach to AAA Entry

Following its strong earnings results, driven by lockdowns in China Tencent has been in the news several times lately as it has hired game...

Mio Kato

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

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