Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the secondary impacts and then give you an idea.</li><li>Let’s start at the source and walk backward from there. Amazon finally woke up. <a href="https://www.semianalysis.com/p/amazons-cloud-crisis-how-aws-will" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SemiAnalysis’s piece on why Amazon will lose the future of AI</a> has pretty much turned out correct.</li><li>AWS has a fundamentally different view of how to run infrastructure, and most of it is driven by effectively pursuing Amazon basics at scale for their AWS property.</li></ul>

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the secondary impacts and then give you an idea.Let’s start at the source and walk backward from there. Amazon finally woke up. SemiAnalysis’s piece on why Amazon will lose the future of AI has pretty much turned out correct.AWS has a fundamentally different view of how to run infrastructure, and most of it is driven by effectively pursuing Amazon basics at scale for their AWS property.

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

Equity Bottom-Up

King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We expect <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/king-yuan-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6630:1" rel="noopener">King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)</a>'s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener"> NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.   </a></li>
<li>The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.  </li>
</ul>


We expect King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)'s 4Q24 outlook to be a seasonal uptrend with a slight increase quarter-over-quarter.
 NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) will become the top client at KYEC, and Mediatek Inc (2454 TT) is expected to become the second-largest client in the outlook for 2025.   
The focus will primarily be on currently available sources, particularly KYEC for production.  


KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.</li>
<li>Among TSMC's top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.</li>
<li>Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.</li>
</ul>


We anticipate that the upcoming 4Q24 will likely see a ~10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) upside.
Among TSMC's top clients are companies from the US, Taiwan, and Japan.
Recently, we have heard that TSMC is reducing wafer quotations by about ~10% for 28nm and below, in order to adapt to the current environment.


TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Latest Industry Signals -- Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared... Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia's Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed Names Were a Mixed Bag of Performance</li>
<li>Key Events to Watch -- SEMICON Taiwan This Week, We Will Be Attending</li>
<li>Perspective -- NVIDIA's &gt;5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag</li>
</ul>


Latest Industry Signals -- Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared... Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia's Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed Names Were a Mixed Bag of Performance
Key Events to Watch -- SEMICON Taiwan This Week, We Will Be Attending
Perspective -- NVIDIA's &gt;5x YoY "Singapore" Revenue Growth Is A Red Flag


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week

<ul>
<li>Nvidia, Dell, Marvell results coming out this week.. Apple iPhone 16 Reveal September 9th?</li>
<li>Micron progressing on potential Taiwan capacity expansion due to strong HBM DRAM demand</li>
<li>AMD acquires a key U.S. server systems integrator, expanding its enterprise server opportunity in a market including Taiwan's server ODM players such as Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Inventec, Quanta, and Compal.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia, Dell, Marvell results coming out this week.. Apple iPhone 16 Reveal September 9th?
Micron progressing on potential Taiwan capacity expansion due to strong HBM DRAM demand
AMD acquires a key U.S. server systems integrator, expanding its enterprise server opportunity in a market including Taiwan's server ODM players such as Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Inventec, Quanta, and Compal.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron's Taiwan Expansion

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the...

Fabricated Knowledge

KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week

Latest Industry Results -- Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared... Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia's Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron's Taiwan Expansion

Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell to soon release results, while Micron considers Taiwan expansion and AMD acquires U.S. server integrator in industry of...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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The Rise of Amazon's Trainium 2

In my opinion, this week’s big news in the semiconductor industry is the ramp of Trainium. It’s a bit subtle, but I will walk you through the...

Fabricated Knowledge

KYEC (2449.TT): 4Q24 Outlook Brightening; NVDA Will Become #1 Client in 2025

​Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Patrick Liao

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Outlook Is Around 10% QoQ Upside.

​Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.

Patrick Liao

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia's SG Revenue Red Flag; Rise of Custom Silicon; SEMICON Taiwan This Week

Latest Industry Results -- Nvidia Crashed While Marvell Soared... Custom Silicon a Threat to Nvidia's Monster Growth? Taiwan AI/Server Exposed...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia Results Imminent; Apple IPhone 16 Reveal Date; Micron's Taiwan Expansion

Nvidia, Dell, and Marvell to soon release results, while Micron considers Taiwan expansion and AMD acquires U.S. server integrator in industry of...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Expect seasonal uptrend in 4Q24 outlook for King Yuan Electronics Co, with NVIDIA Corp as top client and Mediatek Inc as second-largest in 2025....

Anticipating 10% QoQ growth in 4Q24 for TSMC, who is adjusting wafer quotations to meet current demands from US, Taiwan, and Japan clients.