Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<h3>In this Insight </h3>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>: Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pvr-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10144:1" rel="noopener">PVR Ltd (PVRL IN)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inox-leisure-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1999:1" rel="noopener">Inox Leisure (INOL IN)</a>: We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/computer-age-management-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28843:1" rel="noopener">Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN)</a>: Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. 
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marico-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16903:1" rel="noopener">Marico Ltd (MRCO IN)</a>: Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. 
<h3>About India Channel Insight</h3>
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Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
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In this Insight 
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN): Although very early considering the current uncertainty, based on initiation channel feedback, we take a shot at estimating possible trends in wholesale and retail for FY22.
PVR Ltd (PVRL IN) &amp; Inox Leisure (INOL IN): We expect a ~10% reduction in the number of screens due to this pandemic, however, we do not see any material impact of the same on ATPs (expecting them to remain lower). 
Computer Age Management Services (CAMS IN): Flows mixed, but digitization tailwind could aid revenue growth. Currently, our channels indicate no material stress in terms of SIP flows. 
Marico Ltd (MRCO IN): Our channels reiterate the strong growth prospects for edible oil. Tailwinds remain and players like MRCO are likely to benefit with volumes expected to remain buoyant. 
About India Channel Insight

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Building on our earlier insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/india-channel-insight-a-tier-2-city-s-battle-with-the-second-wave-welcome-to-the-jungle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50005" rel="noopener">India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle</a> on India's fight with the second wave, in this insight, we present our takeaways from interactions and experiences of 10 COVID positive patients (including self) with an objective to understand and estimate the impact on discretionary spending, the possibility of job losses and stress if any on small and medium scale businesses.

Building on our earlier insight India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle on India's fight with the second wave, in this insight, we present our takeaways from interactions and experiences of 10 COVID positive patients (including self) with an objective to understand and estimate the impact on discretionary spending, the possibility of job losses and stress if any on small and medium scale businesses.  

India Channel Insight | Living in the Second Wave | The Battle Is On

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$800m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. In addition, its 9M21 performance was propped by a single EV customer. While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$800m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. In addition, its 9M21 performance was propped by a single EV customer. While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent Growth, Patchy Disclosures

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle.

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  
For this Insight, we did not do any phone calls, no travel, no channel checks. These insights are purely based on first-degree personal interactions and observations. While the data is relevant to Vadodara, anecdotal evidence is gathered from Pune, Indore, Mumbai. 
While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharashtra, the situation is no better in rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out to be a battle for survival! Welcome to the Jungle. 

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

Kalyan Jewellers / Equity Capital Markets

Kalyan Jewellers aims to raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993 and is backed by Warburg Pincus.The company is one of the largest jewellery companies in India based on FY20 (year ending Mar 2020) revenue, as per the Technopak report. As of Dec 2020, it had 107 showrooms across 21 states and union territories in India. It also had 30 showrooms in the Middle East.Earnings haven’t grown much over the past few years, as the company appears to have suffered from a strategic misstep. Over 9M21, revenue declined by 30.6% and the company suffered a loss.Having said that, the industry remains highly fragmented with ample scope remaining for organised players, like Kalyan, to gain market share. We have looked at the background of the company in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kalyan-jewellers-pre-ipo-strategy-missteps-led-to-earnings-flatlining" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Kalyan Jewellers Pre-IPO - Strategy missteps led to earnings flatlining</a>. In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about updates since our last note.

Kalyan Jewellers aims to raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993 and is backed by Warburg Pincus.The company is one of the largest jewellery companies in India based on FY20 (year ending Mar 2020) revenue, as per the Technopak report. As of Dec 2020, it had 107 showrooms across 21 states and union territories in India. It also had 30 showrooms in the Middle East.Earnings haven’t grown much over the past few years, as the company appears to have suffered from a strategic misstep. Over 9M21, revenue declined by 30.6% and the company suffered a loss.Having said that, the industry remains highly fragmented with ample scope remaining for organised players, like Kalyan, to gain market share. We have looked at the background of the company in our previous note, Kalyan Jewellers Pre-IPO - Strategy missteps led to earnings flatlining. In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about updates since our last note.

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

India Channel Insight | Maruti, PVR, Inox, CAMS, Marico

Channel interactions are an integral part of our research process. For this insight, we interact with channels and share our views on the likely...

Pranav Bhavsar

India Channel Insight | Living in the Second Wave | The Battle Is On

in this insight, we present our takeaways from interactions and experiences of 10 COVID positive patients with an objective to understand and...

Pranav Bhavsar

Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent Growth, Patchy Disclosures

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$800m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

India Channel Insight | A Tier -2 City's Battle with The Second Wave | Welcome to the Jungle

While the lockdowns are just imposed in Maharastra, the situation is no better in the rest of the country, the fight against COVID is turning out...

Pranav Bhavsar

Kalyan Jewellers IPO - No Glitter

Kalyan Jewellers aims to raise around US$160m via a mix of selling new and existing shares in its Indian IPO. The company was established in 1993...

Sumeet Singh

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